Cheadle

[stb12]

Cheadle

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

?

[birkinabe]

SOPN - Con, Lab, LD, Green, Reform UK, WPB, x1 Independent

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 7, 2024 20:33:54 GMT birkinabe said:

SOPN - Con, Lab, LD, Green, Reform UK, WPB, x1 Independent

Am I misreading this, or misinterpreting the law - but is the WPB candidate her own assentor? Surely it's reasonably unlikely that there are two separate people with that name in Cheadle.

[cathyc]

Jun 7, 2024 20:52:10 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Jun 7, 2024 20:33:54 GMT birkinabe said:

SOPN - Con, Lab, LD, Green, Reform UK, WPB, x1 Independent

Am I misreading this, or misinterpreting the law - but is the WPB candidate her own assentor? Surely it's reasonably unlikely that there are two separate people with that name in Cheadle.

Quite legal as long as it's a locally registered elector.

[johnloony]

Jun 7, 2024 20:52:10 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Jun 7, 2024 20:33:54 GMT birkinabe said:

SOPN - Con, Lab, LD, Green, Reform UK, WPB, x1 Independent

Am I misreading this, or misinterpreting the law - but is the WPB candidate her own assentor? Surely it's reasonably unlikely that there are two separate people with that name in Cheadle.

It has always been possible for a candidate to nominate him/herself. If the candidate is a validly registered elector, then he/she is allowed to nominate someone as a candidate just as much as any other elector can.

[LDCaerdydd]

Lib Dem in Rhondda and Ogmore has done it too.

[markgoodair]

Has the independent candidate Marcus Farmer stood as a candidate for the Greater Manchester Mayor?

[trickyreturns]

Jun 7, 2024 21:02:11 GMT johnloony said:

Jun 7, 2024 20:52:10 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Am I misreading this, or misinterpreting the law - but is the WPB candidate her own assentor? Surely it's reasonably unlikely that there are two separate people with that name in Cheadle.

It has always been possible for a candidate to nominate him/herself. If the candidate is a validly registered elector, then he/she is allowed to nominate someone as a candidate just as much as any other elector can.

I assented to my own candidacy in the N Wales PCC election.

[bsjmcr]

Jun 29, 2024 17:43:52 GMT markgoodair said:

Has the independent candidate Marcus Farmer stood as a candidate for the Greater Manchester Mayor?

Yes, in 2017 and 2021, and in Manchester Withington in 2010 and 2015 so that must be him. He seems to have money to burn on lost deposits…

[markgoodair]

Jun 30, 2024 21:54:57 GMT bsjmcr said:

Jun 29, 2024 17:43:52 GMT markgoodair said:

Has the independent candidate Marcus Farmer stood as a candidate for the Greater Manchester Mayor?

Yes, in 2017 and 2021, and in Manchester Withington in 2010 and 2015 so that must be him. He seems to have money to burn on lost deposits…

He went to the same school as me although he is a few years older than me. His brother is a Conservative councillor in Wakefield.

[right]

Jun 30, 2024 21:54:57 GMT bsjmcr said:

Jun 29, 2024 17:43:52 GMT markgoodair said:

Has the independent candidate Marcus Farmer stood as a candidate for the Greater Manchester Mayor?

Yes, in 2017 and 2021, and in Manchester Withington in 2010 and 2015 so that must be him. He seems to have money to burn on lost deposits…

His literature manages to be both non committal and promise that he will say so much that you need to go to his website:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20150/

[right]

Workers Party offering:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20151/

[gwynthegriff]

Jul 2, 2024 21:56:17 GMT right said:

Workers Party offering:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20151/

Written by a 14 year old?

[Devil Wincarnate]

Well, it might play well in some streets in Cheadle....not so in others.

[greenhert]

Jul 3, 2024 9:19:04 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Well, it might play well in some streets in Cheadle....not so in others.

It will likely not play well anywhere in Cheadle-this is almost entirely well-educated affluent suburbia similar to Twickenham.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 3, 2024 11:48:43 GMT greenhert said:

Jul 3, 2024 9:19:04 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Well, it might play well in some streets in Cheadle....not so in others.

It will likely not play well anywhere in Cheadle-this is almost entirely well-educated affluent suburbia similar to Twickenham.

There's a heavy and concentrated (and educated) Muslim presence in part of the seat. There's also a heavy and concentrated Jewish presence. However, I can't see those Muslim voters being big Galloway fans.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Anyway, this seat is lost to the Conservative Party. There are worse people to be your MP than Mary Robinson, despite my past misgivings. She's not particularly disliked, and even political opponents acknowledge that she's active locally. But she has little real profile, and she will be swept away easily.

It's winnable again, but that will require them to not try and go down the Reform tribute act route. That won't wash here.

They need a perfect storm of a sensible front-bench, an unpopular Labour government and an unpopular Lib Dem council. And they will need to rebuild on the council to achieve that anyway.

Gut feeling - A&SW won't vote Conservative for a generation, but Cheadle will be the first seat to return to the blue camp when they do recover.

[sisterjude]

Jul 3, 2024 15:01:43 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Anyway, this seat is lost to the Conservative Party. There are worse people to be your MP than Mary Robinson, despite my past misgivings. She's not particularly disliked, and even political opponents acknowledge that she's active locally. But she has little real profile, and she will be swept away easily.

It's winnable again, but that will require them to not try and go down the Reform tribute act route. That won't wash here.

They need a perfect storm of a sensible front-bench, an unpopular Labour government and an unpopular Lib Dem council. And they will need to rebuild on the council to achieve that anyway.

Gut feeling - A&SW won't vote Conservative for a generation, but Cheadle will be the first seat to return to the blue camp when they do recover.

Sound analysis as always from my learned friend. It's not exactly sticking one's neck out to say the Liberals will romo home here tomorrow and the Conservatives will be battling to stay ahead of Labour (which I think they will manage, just)

I am perhaps slightly less impressed with Robinson than you are, however. Sure she knows how to get herself in a photo op, but I've had friends and family tell me they've struggled to get timely responses on pretty straightforward casework.

Regardless, from what I've seen of Tom Morrison I think he will make a decent MP and seems like a good fit for the area.

One area I do disagree on is Cheadle being the first GM seat to go back to the Tories in however many years. I think that is more likely to be Bolton West... But I suspect we will be waiting two or three elections to see which of us is proved right!

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 4, 2024 0:25:28 GMT sisterjude said:

Jul 3, 2024 15:01:43 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Anyway, this seat is lost to the Conservative Party. There are worse people to be your MP than Mary Robinson, despite my past misgivings. She's not particularly disliked, and even political opponents acknowledge that she's active locally. But she has little real profile, and she will be swept away easily.

It's winnable again, but that will require them to not try and go down the Reform tribute act route. That won't wash here.

They need a perfect storm of a sensible front-bench, an unpopular Labour government and an unpopular Lib Dem council. And they will need to rebuild on the council to achieve that anyway.

Gut feeling - A&SW won't vote Conservative for a generation, but Cheadle will be the first seat to return to the blue camp when they do recover.

Sound analysis as always from my learned friend. It's not exactly sticking one's neck out to say the Liberals will romo home here tomorrow and the Conservatives will be battling to stay ahead of Labour (which I think they will manage, just)

I am perhaps slightly less impressed with Robinson than you are, however. Sure she knows how to get herself in a photo op, but I've had friends and family tell me they've struggled to get timely responses on pretty straightforward casework.

Regardless, from what I've seen of Tom Morrison I think he will make a decent MP and seems like a good fit for the area.

One area I do disagree on is Cheadle being the first GM seat to go back to the Tories in however many years. I think that is more likely to be Bolton West... But I suspect we will be waiting two or three elections to see which of us is proved right!

It's not that Robinson impresses me per se, but compared to past MPs I've had such as Bev Hughes, Steve Brine and Evan Harris, I don't actually have a reason to particularly dislike her!

A good shout on Bolton West.

I really don't know what to make of Labour. I suspect your prediction will be correct, it seems unlikely that it could be squeezed as it was in the days of Patsy Calton.