Bury South

[stb12]

Bury South

[bsjmcr]

Mar 13, 2024 22:37:25 GMT stb12 said:

Bury South

An almost certain technical Labour gain, but of course a hold for the candidate. 

It will be interesting to see if the Conservatives choice of candidate in Arnie Saunders may minimise the anti-Tory swing here. Due to boundary changes his ward of Kersal and Higher Broughton now comes in (and was one of the strongest Conservative performances in the 2021 Mayoral election), but Sedgley Park just on the border is very safely Labour, even if it is contiguous and just as Orthodox. ‘Pilkington Park’ in Whitefield may help prevent a derisory Tory result, though is very different in character to Sedgley.

I would expect huge swings back to Labour in what’s left of Radcliffe (but another Radcliffe First clean sweep in this year’s LEs may dampen that even if they don’t contest national elections, as it may show little enthusiasm for Labour - types that may stay at home or go Reform) and large Labour majorities in the St Mary’s and ‘Holyrood’ areas of Prestwich. 

[jamie]

Mar 29, 2024 19:29:24 GMT bsjmcr said:

Due to boundary changes his ward of Kersal and Higher Broughton now comes in (and was one of the strongest Conservative performances in the 2021 Mayoral election), but Sedgley Park just on the border is very safely Labour, even if it is contiguous and just as Orthodox. 

The census has it 4% less Jewish, and (correct me if I’m wrong) I think has a larger non-orthodox population?

[carolus]

www.bury.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/elections-and-voting/statement-of-persons-nominated-notice-of-poll-and-situation-of-polling-stations-for-bury-south

9 - Con, Green, Lab, LD, Reform UK, WPB, Communist Party of Britain, English Democrats, Ind

[owainsutton]

The independent is Michael Elston: briefly was running as an independent in the 2021 GM Mayoral, but ended up not submitting a complete nomination.

[bsjmcr]

Plenty of lost deposits to be found here then.

Interestingly both Green candidates for Bury N/S live in Altrincham and Sale West.

[owainsutton]

Jun 7, 2024 16:59:13 GMT bsjmcr said:

Plenty of lost deposits to be found here then.

Interestingly both Green candidates for Bury N/S live in Altrincham and Sale West.

Kinda hand for paperwork, when you live around the corner from each other and are each other's agents!

All six of us Trafford cllrs are standing - Wigan and Warrington North are where my ward colleagues are.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

A better version of the SOPN: drive.google.com/file/d/18WDwGg4Q1DscTdOF5BwjLv1c-VEqlyEw/view?usp=share_link

[bsjmcr]

Only two Labour leaflets so far and nothing from the Conservative. They could be looking at a 2001-style result here. Why 2001 you ask? Ivan Lewis actually achieved a further swing towards him and an increased majority on a much reduced turnout due to from what little information I can find a fairly inactive Conservative campaign plus without Sumberg’s incumbency.

Saunders may hold on to his core vote in Broughton Park though, which has shown greater loyalty to the conservatives even in the mayoral elections when Andy Burnham was on the ballot paper (one of his relatively weaker wards) but that literally is about it.

And there could be a reduced turnout here overall given a not very competitive campaign and maybe some remaining disillusionment with Wakeford from very dyed-in-the-wool Labour voters who may stay at home if not going Green or even the Communist party, who appears to be out campaigning if twitter is anything to go by.

[Deleted]

When I was younger, I used to think 'Bury Labour? With pleasure!'. Now it'll be the Tories who get landslided out here.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 19, 2024 20:12:01 GMT bsjmcr said:

Only two Labour leaflets so far and nothing from the Conservative. They could be looking at a 2001-style result here. Why 2001 you ask? Ivan Lewis actually achieved a further swing towards him and an increased majority on a much reduced turnout due to from what little information I can find a fairly inactive Conservative campaign plus without Sumberg’s incumbency.

Saunders may hold on to his core vote in Broughton Park though, which has shown greater loyalty to the conservatives even in the mayoral elections when Andy Burnham was on the ballot paper (one of his relatively weaker wards) but that literally is about it.

And there could be a reduced turnout here overall given a not very competitive campaign and maybe some remaining disillusionment with Wakeford from very dyed-in-the-wool Labour voters who may stay at home if not going Green or even the Communist party, who appears to be out campaigning if twitter is anything to go by.

I can't help but think that Wakeford is going to be a future problem for Labour. I can't explain why, it's a feeling in the waters.

[batman]

Generally floor-crossers are at pains to be very loyal and sometimes they achieve ministerial office. As far as I know, all those MPs who have defected from the Tories to Labour in the last 30-odd years are still members of the Labour Party, except of course Peter Temple-Morris who died in 2018. Shaun Woodward certainly is.

[john07]

Jun 20, 2024 20:26:04 GMT batman said:

Generally floor-crossers are at pains to be very loyal and sometimes they achieve ministerial office. As far as I know, all those MPs who have defected from the Tories to Labour in the last 30-odd years are still members of the Labour Party, except of course Peter Temple-Morris who died in 2018. Shaun Woodward certainly is.

This was not the case with Winston Churchill.

[batman]

That's true. I guess I was thinking almost entirely of those crossing the floor from Conservative to Labour.

[bsjmcr]

A third Labour leaflet, Reform and English Democrats (!) arrived by post and remarkably still nothing from Arnie. Almost have to remind myself that I’m not living in Manchester Central with the lack of Tory activity here - yes it’s a lost cause but it’s still a seat they technically hold (and held from 1983-97 which is why I resent the red wall description here)

[bsjmcr]

Jun 28, 2024 8:17:55 GMT bsjmcr said:

A third Labour leaflet, Reform and English Democrats (!) arrived by post and remarkably still nothing from Arnie. Almost have to remind myself that I’m not living in Manchester Central with the lack of Tory activity here - yes it’s a lost cause but it’s still a seat they technically hold (and held from 1983-97 which is why I resent the red wall description here)

Received a 'glossy broadsheet' type Labour leaflet, but it was so boilerplate that it referred to a fictional "Bury South Town Centre" - which one? Yes there is regeneration going on (or planned) in Radcliffe and Prestwich (not sure about Whitefield which is often the squeezed middle child and doesn't have much of a town centre unless you count Morrisons) but nobody ever refers to the area as "Bury South town centre"

[batman]

that's pretty bad, actually.

[Foggy]

Jun 30, 2024 19:40:25 GMT bsjmcr said:

Jun 28, 2024 8:17:55 GMT bsjmcr said:

A third Labour leaflet, Reform and English Democrats (!) arrived by post and remarkably still nothing from Arnie. Almost have to remind myself that I’m not living in Manchester Central with the lack of Tory activity here - yes it’s a lost cause but it’s still a seat they technically hold (and held from 1983-97 which is why I resent the red wall description here)

Received a 'glossy broadsheet' type Labour leaflet, but it was so boilerplate that it referred to a fictional "Bury South Town Centre" - which one? Yes there is regeneration going on (or planned) in Radcliffe and Prestwich (not sure about Whitefield which is often the squeezed middle child and doesn't have much of a town centre unless you count Morrisons) but nobody ever refers to the area as "Bury South town centre"

I visited this constituency back in April and that description would've made it very difficult for me to get my bearings! 

[bsjmcr]

Jun 30, 2024 20:09:22 GMT batman said:

that's pretty bad, actually.

To be fair I have received a more locally in tune leaflet from him, this felt like it was typed centrally or mail merged! This one also had a bar chart of the 2019 result - simply with the party’s colours for the bars, of course, not naming the candidate on that occasion!

I also got an addressed letter which was headed with “Change” at the top in bold, followed by “Keir Starmer, Leader of the Labour Party” the line underneath. Such formatting made me want to reply with “Yes, I’d like to Change Keir from being the leader (to Andy Burnham)…”

[chorleyboy]

Arnie Saunders has been subject to some disturbing abuse whilst visiting a mosque: www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/mosque-apologises-to-rabbi-tory-29454858.