tomc
Conservative
Posts: 904 
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Post by tomc on Jun 8, 2024 17:14:44 GMT
It seems that Mr Fiass has nominated himself on his form, I presume that's permitted ? Burnley Council has an excellent and helpful Elections team, as I know from personal experience, they wouldn't have missed that if so ... Yes, the Electoral Commission explicitly state that this is permissible. Yes, I think this has always been fine, I clarified this with Burnley's election officers back in the day, I avoided signing my own nomination papers to avoid seeming desperate but when collecting for a paper candidate it made sense to have him and his wife sign, then if they've got friendly neighbours you've got six signatures already. |
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tomc
Conservative
Posts: 904
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Post by tomc on Jun 8, 2024 17:16:56 GMT
Interesting that the Reform UK candidate has an address in the Pendle and Clitheroe constituency while the Reform candidate in Pendle and Clitheroe has an address in the Burnley constituency. That's curious, " tomc " especially around these parts ... hope you're keeping well ! Not bad thank you. My campaigning in this election will be in Pendle where I think the new boundaries and lingering Gaza effect may enable Andrew Stephenson to hang on. He seems a decent bloke so I'm willing to help with that. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,755
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 8, 2024 18:10:38 GMT
Yes, the Electoral Commission explicitly state that this is permissible. Yes, I think this has always been fine, I clarified this with Burnley's election officers back in the day, I avoided signing my own nomination papers to avoid seeming desperate but when collecting for a paper candidate it made sense to have him and his wife sign, then if they've got friendly neighbours you've got six signatures already. Yes, the nomination form is explicitly: people who are allowed to vote for you. If you can vote for you, then you are a person allowed to vote for you.
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Post by ideal4radio on Jun 8, 2024 18:58:09 GMT
That's curious, " tomc " especially around these parts ... hope you're keeping well ! Not bad thank you. My campaigning in this election will be in Pendle where I think the new boundaries and lingering Gaza effect may enable Andrew Stephenson to hang on. He seems a decent bloke so I'm willing to help with that. That's good to hear, " tomc " ... did you ever get round to the driving test ? I think Burnley will be very interesting ... The three Burnley wards with a large Asian heritage ( Bank Hall, Daneshouse with Stoneyholme and Queensgate ), together with the two new additions in Brierfield had 7,682 votes cast for " Independent " Councillors in May, votes which would have gone overwhelmingly to Labour in normal times .. I suspect the national polling might be underestimating this effect. It's a massive disadvantage for Labour in seats like Burnley ... If the Asian Independent Candidate attracts the overwhelming support of that Community, then I reckon Labour are starting from a position of losing around 4,500 votes from their 2019 total. In addition, they will not get the anticipated boost from adding Brierfield to the Constituency. The factor that may save them is that Reform UK will take most of the 3,362 votes that the Brexit Party got last time, and despite Antony Hegginbotham being a visable and vocal MP, he will undoubtedly lose votes to Reform, due to National factors ... The average turnout in Burnley over the last 7 Elections has been 61.3%, ( ranging from 55.7% in 2001 to 66.9% in 1997 ). I reckon any Candidate who gets 15,000+ will win the seat ... |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 24, 2024 10:25:54 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 12:02:39 GMT
I suspect Lib Dem HQ aren't super enthusiastic about the prospect of Birtwistle getting elected.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
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Post by ricmk on Jun 24, 2024 12:30:41 GMT
I suspect Lib Dem HQ aren't super enthusiastic about the prospect of Birtwistle getting elected. I doubt it - but that doesn't reflect well on them. I've always had a lot of time for Gordon Birtwistle, my kind of Lib Dem. But getting real: he's 80, the Burnley local party has had more than a tough time since he was last elected in 2010 and I'm not aware of any serious outside help going into Burnley. So seems like ramping more than anything else. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 29, 2024 23:20:02 GMT
I suspect Lib Dem HQ aren't super enthusiastic about the prospect of Birtwistle getting elected. I doubt it - but that doesn't reflect well on them. I've always had a lot of time for Gordon Birtwistle, my kind of Lib Dem. But getting real: he's 80, the Burnley local party has had more than a tough time since he was last elected in 2010 and I'm not aware of any serious outside help going into Burnley. So seems like ramping more than anything else. I will caution that the South Asian bloc vote can be very strong in Burnley though - it would be interesting to see rough estimations of on the day turnout figures for areas like Daneshouse and Stoneyholme or Bank Hall. That may give you a decent idea of what to expect. |
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Post by ideal4radio on Jul 1, 2024 20:39:38 GMT
I doubt it - but that doesn't reflect well on them. I've always had a lot of time for Gordon Birtwistle, my kind of Lib Dem. But getting real: he's 80, the Burnley local party has had more than a tough time since he was last elected in 2010 and I'm not aware of any serious outside help going into Burnley. So seems like ramping more than anything else. I will caution that the South Asian bloc vote can be very strong in Burnley though - it would be interesting to see rough estimations of on the day turnout figures for areas like Daneshouse and Stoneyholme or Bank Hall. That may give you a decent idea of what to expect. I agree with that point, in addition, the two wards that have been absorbed from the old Pendle Constituency, Brierfield East & Clover Hill and Brierfield West & Reedley are heavily populated by the South Asian Community. I would add that many promises of support were made to Mr Birtwistle during the 2015 General Election campaign from the same Community, which did not materialise. If Labour have lost the majority of that Community's vote, then they're probably starting at a minus 5,500 point from the last General Election ..... |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 2, 2024 0:36:22 GMT
I will caution that the South Asian bloc vote can be very strong in Burnley though - it would be interesting to see rough estimations of on the day turnout figures for areas like Daneshouse and Stoneyholme or Bank Hall. That may give you a decent idea of what to expect. I agree with that point, in addition, the two wards that have been absorbed from the old Pendle Constituency, Brierfield East & Clover Hill and Brierfield West & Reedley are heavily populated by the South Asian Community. I would add that many promises of support were made to Mr Birtwistle during the 2015 General Election campaign from the same Community, which did not materialise. If Labour have lost the majority of that Community's vote, then they're probably starting at a minus 5,500 point from the last General Election ..... Interesting point re Birtwistle's support not materialising in 2015 - perhaps the community will pull through for him, now that such a salient issue like Palestine is at stake |
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Post by ideal4radio on Jul 3, 2024 17:23:06 GMT
I agree with that point, in addition, the two wards that have been absorbed from the old Pendle Constituency, Brierfield East & Clover Hill and Brierfield West & Reedley are heavily populated by the South Asian Community. I would add that many promises of support were made to Mr Birtwistle during the 2015 General Election campaign from the same Community, which did not materialise. If Labour have lost the majority of that Community's vote, then they're probably starting at a minus 5,500 point from the last General Election ..... Interesting point re Birtwistle's support not materialising in 2015 - perhaps the community will pull through for him, now that such a salient issue like Palestine is at stake In the last 6 elections the " turnout " in Burnley has averaged around 61% ... I expect this to be nearer 65% this time, with anti Tory sentiment, and the addition of the 2 Brierfield wards. The electorate totals 74,722 so a 63% turnout means 47,074 votes. Labour polled 14,368 last time around, which will have had a large South Asian element, as many as 6,500, I reckon. As I said in a previous post, 7,682 votes were cast for ex-Labour Councillors, (standing as Independents ) in the 3 predominantly Asian Burnley Wards & the 2 Brierfield wards in May and that's on reduced " locals " turnouts, always lower than a General Election. If Birtwistle does get say, 80% of the Asian vote, ( he has been endorsed by Muslim Vote ) then that's probably 8, 500 votes. The fact that he voted against same-sex marriage during the 2010-15 Parliament ( he's a practising Roman Catholic ) will probably not have harmed him in the rather socially conservative Asian community. In terms of Labour's chances, losing that amount of potential votes will be very damaging and means that they'll need to make the votes up from the white vote, amongst whom I detect very little enthusiasm amongst voters for Labour, apart from a general " Tories out " feeling ... Frankly who knows ? I might be wrong, Labour may win it by 10,000+ ... For interest, " Electoral Calculus " who use MRP, predict a turnout of 56.5%, votes being as follows .... Labour 17,649 41.8% Reform 11,653 27.6% Con 7,136 16.9% LibDem 2,828 6.7% Green 2,069 4.9% Ind's 887 2.1% |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 3, 2024 17:29:23 GMT
Interesting point re Birtwistle's support not materialising in 2015 - perhaps the community will pull through for him, now that such a salient issue like Palestine is at stake In the last 6 elections the " turnout " in Burnley has averaged around 61% ... I expect this to be nearer 65% this time, with anti Tory sentiment, and the addition of the 2 Brierfield wards. The electorate totals 74,722 so a 63% turnout means 47,074 votes. Labour polled 14,368 last time around, which will have had a large South Asian element, as many as 6,500, I reckon. As I said in a previous post, 7,682 votes were cast for ex-Labour Councillors, (standing as Independents ) in the 3 predominantly Asian Burnley Wards & the 2 Brierfield wards in May and that's on reduced " locals " turnouts, always lower than a General Election. If Birtwistle does get say, 80% of the Asian vote, ( he has been endorsed by Muslim Vote ) then that's probably 8, 500 votes. The fact that he voted against same-sex marriage during the 2010-15 Parliament ( he's a practising Roman Catholic ) will probably not have harmed him in the rather socially conservative Asian community. In terms of Labour's chances, losing that amount of potential votes will be very damaging and means that they'll need to make the votes up from the white vote, amongst whom I detect very little enthusiasm amongst voters for Labour, apart from a general " Tories out " feeling ... Frankly who knows ? I might be wrong, Labour may win it by 10,000+ ... For interest, " Electoral Calculus " who use MRP, predict a turnout of 56.5%, votes being as follows .... Labour 17,649 41.8% Reform 11,653 27.6% Con 7,136 16.9% LibDem 2,828 6.7% Green 2,069 4.9% Ind's 887 2.1% I would completely disregard that EC prediction - they have been consistently wrong across the country and there's no way Reform come second on over 10k. 3rd is believable, but they're not putting a massive effort with a candidate from somewhere around Nelson (I reckon Alan Hosker could have got close if he got Padiham and Gannow in particular to turn out.) The rest of the insight re Gordon Birtwistle I agree with - the only issue being is how the traditional Burnley vote will mix with the traditional LD vote in the more affluent parts of Rose Hill and Briercliffe, if the endorsement by the Muslim Vote organisation reaches the latter group. |
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Post by ideal4radio on Jul 3, 2024 18:32:09 GMT
In the last 6 elections the " turnout " in Burnley has averaged around 61% ... I expect this to be nearer 65% this time, with anti Tory sentiment, and the addition of the 2 Brierfield wards. The electorate totals 74,722 so a 63% turnout means 47,074 votes. Labour polled 14,368 last time around, which will have had a large South Asian element, as many as 6,500, I reckon. As I said in a previous post, 7,682 votes were cast for ex-Labour Councillors, (standing as Independents ) in the 3 predominantly Asian Burnley Wards & the 2 Brierfield wards in May and that's on reduced " locals " turnouts, always lower than a General Election. If Birtwistle does get say, 80% of the Asian vote, ( he has been endorsed by Muslim Vote ) then that's probably 8, 500 votes. The fact that he voted against same-sex marriage during the 2010-15 Parliament ( he's a practising Roman Catholic ) will probably not have harmed him in the rather socially conservative Asian community. In terms of Labour's chances, losing that amount of potential votes will be very damaging and means that they'll need to make the votes up from the white vote, amongst whom I detect very little enthusiasm amongst voters for Labour, apart from a general " Tories out " feeling ... Frankly who knows ? I might be wrong, Labour may win it by 10,000+ ... For interest, " Electoral Calculus " who use MRP, predict a turnout of 56.5%, votes being as follows .... Labour 17,649 41.8% Reform 11,653 27.6% Con 7,136 16.9% LibDem 2,828 6.7% Green 2,069 4.9% Ind's 887 2.1% I would completely disregard that EC prediction - they have been consistently wrong across the country and there's no way Reform come second on over 10k. 3rd is believable, but they're not putting a massive effort with a candidate from somewhere around Nelson (I reckon Alan Hosker could have got close if he got Padiham and Gannow in particular to turn out.) The rest of the insight re Gordon Birtwistle I agree with - the only issue being is how the traditional Burnley vote will mix with the traditional LD vote in the more affluent parts of Rose Hill and Briercliffe, if the endorsement by the Muslim Vote organisation reaches the latter group. I literally laughed out loud when I saw the " Electoral Calculus " prediction ... Alan Hosker is now the Conservative Group Leader on Burnley Council, so would not have stood for Reform, in any event ... |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 3, 2024 18:34:16 GMT
I would completely disregard that EC prediction - they have been consistently wrong across the country and there's no way Reform come second on over 10k. 3rd is believable, but they're not putting a massive effort with a candidate from somewhere around Nelson (I reckon Alan Hosker could have got close if he got Padiham and Gannow in particular to turn out.) The rest of the insight re Gordon Birtwistle I agree with - the only issue being is how the traditional Burnley vote will mix with the traditional LD vote in the more affluent parts of Rose Hill and Briercliffe, if the endorsement by the Muslim Vote organisation reaches the latter group. I literally laughed out loud when I saw the " Electoral Calculus " prediction ... Alan Hosker is now the Conservative Group Leader on Burnley Council, so would not have stood for Reform, in any event ... Me too! As for Hosker, we'll see how long he can play happy families with the old money Tories in the villages.... |
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Post by ideal4radio on Jul 3, 2024 19:23:29 GMT
To be fair to Alan Hosker, he gets things done in his area and has a great following locally ... when he was first elected as a Borough Councillor back in 2015 ( two vacancies ) he got 20.3% of the vote, coming 2nd, and served for only one year, before retaining his seat a year later with 44.4% of the vote. In the postponed elections for 2020, held in 2021, his vote share increased to 73.8%, and this May, retained his seat with 61.1% of the vote despite the National picture for the Tories.
In respect of his County Council seat of Padiham & Burnley West, he stood under the UKIP Banner in 2017 and took the seat with a majority of 228 from Labour, who'd held it since 1974. He retained it in 2021, standing for the Conservatives, increasing his majority to 1,380 ! He's clearly doing something right !
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Post by thirdchill on Jul 5, 2024 6:42:33 GMT
Labour did gain this seat, albeit on around 31% of the vote.
The Lib Dems did very well here, gaining 2nd place from the conservatives (just). Was very close 3 way for 2nd place between lib dems, conservatives & Reform (in that order).
Independents did not make much impression here.
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Post by ideal4radio on Jul 5, 2024 19:03:46 GMT
Like adjacent Blackburn, the turnout was 53% ... very poor !
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