stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 22:29:15 GMT
Stockton West
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Mar 14, 2024 10:23:21 GMT
Candidates so far:
Matt Vickers (Conservative, incumbent)
Joe Dancey (Labour)
Stephen Matthews (Reform UK)
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Post by carolus on Jun 7, 2024 19:28:32 GMT
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Post by thirdchill on Jul 5, 2024 13:42:06 GMT
This ended up being the only conservative hold in the north east region (although Middlesborough South & Cleveland East was close).
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 6, 2024 11:02:49 GMT
Demographically the Conservatives couldn't have asked for a better seat here. Interesting to see the conservatives holding up decently here, Darlington and Redcar. A direct or indirect houchen effect maybe? The amount of canvassing and campaigning done here for the mayoral elections can't have hurt the GOTV operations.
Certainly two seats to watch next time. Could be where the Tory revival happens, or perhaps Labour can build up incumbency to counteract this?
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jul 6, 2024 11:10:51 GMT
Demographically the Conservatives couldn't have asked for a better seat here. Interesting to see the conservatives holding up decently here, Darlington and Redcar. A direct or indirect houchen effect maybe? The amount of canvassing and campaigning done here for the mayoral elections can't have hurt the GOTV operations. It seems like they were aware of this as Sunak made a last ditch visit to the three seats mentioned in the final week (easy for him to do mind.) |
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Raddy
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Post by Raddy on Jul 6, 2024 14:22:48 GMT
Not exactly rocket science, They removed working class Thornaby which made Stockton South marginal, and added middle class villages west of Stockton.
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Post by peterski on Jul 6, 2024 14:41:45 GMT
Yeah, but loads of wealthier and more middle class seats than this were lost by the Tories on Thursday. Darlington and Redcar too had similarly resilient Tory votes and no one could describe Redcar constituency as middle class.
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Jul 6, 2024 15:19:13 GMT
Yeah, but loads of wealthier and more middle class seats than this were lost by the Tories on Thursday. Darlington and Redcar too had similarly resilient Tory votes and no one could describe Redcar constituency as middle class. Funny how a fluke victory in 2017 resulted in what looks like a pretty resilient Conservative brand in Teeside. |
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Raddy
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Post by Raddy on Jul 7, 2024 13:08:48 GMT
Yeah, but loads of wealthier and more middle class seats than this were lost by the Tories on Thursday. Darlington and Redcar too had similarly resilient Tory votes and no one could describe Redcar constituency as middle class. I think you would be surprised, Stockton West as it now, has hardly any areas of social housing apart from a few tiny infill areas. Wards to the south of Yarm are some of the wealthiest in the country. The constituency is mainly owner occupied, high university education or highly technical skills.. The only reason Labour won Stockton South was Thornaby with it's huge areas of social housing and inner city deprivation. In Stockton West You will struggle to find a single deprived area of any size on the redrawn borders. The Labour and left wing voters here are the affluent middle class. |
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birkinabe
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winning here
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Post by birkinabe on Jul 8, 2024 13:21:43 GMT
Yeah, I voted LAB gain in the poll on this thread, but based on my knowledge of this constituency I had always suspected that it was safer for the Conservatives than it looked on paper (and probably won by them in 2019 with a larger majority than suggested by the notional results as well), though Houchen appears to have definitely helped them regardless.
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Post by ccoleman on Jul 8, 2024 15:35:45 GMT
Yeah, but loads of wealthier and more middle class seats than this were lost by the Tories on Thursday. Darlington and Redcar too had similarly resilient Tory votes and no one could describe Redcar constituency as middle class. I think you would be surprised, Stockton West as it now, has hardly any areas of social housing apart from a few tiny infill areas. Wards to the south of Yarm are some of the wealthiest in the country. The constituency is mainly owner occupied, high university education or highly technical skills.. The only reason Labour won Stockton South was Thornaby with it's huge areas of social housing and inner city deprivation. In Stockton West You will struggle to find a single deprived area of any size on the redrawn borders. The Labour and left wing voters here are the affluent middle class. None of that really changes his point though - that there are wealthier and less deprived seats than this that voted Labour on Thursday (including many for the first time ever). York Outer, Hertford and Stortford, Altrincham and Sale West, Bracknell, Rushcliffe etc. I can certainly believe, though, that the kind of middle class voters found in Stockton West are much more socially conservative and Brexity than the aforementioned seats (a bit like Essex). I can't imagine Stockton West is a popular destination for people moving out of major cities like Manchester either (since Stockton as a whole is pretty unfashionable and quite far from any major city). |
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Post by peterski on Jul 8, 2024 18:35:16 GMT
Stockton isn't just 'unfashionable' it's a dump. Sadly modern Britain is not short of desperate post-industrial hellholes but Stockton has seen a decline more precipitous than most . It is a very good point that the bien pensant middle class gives places like Stockton a wide berth so the nicer areas tend to be inhabited by successful tradesmen and retired formerly well paid industrial workers.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 18:36:50 GMT
This result didn't surprise me. Look how well the Stockton Tories did in the 2023 local election compared to basically everywhere else. Clear east-west split.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 9, 2024 5:50:19 GMT
This seat shouldn't have Stockton in the title.
You wouldn't call Keighley and Illkley "Bradford North West".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2024 6:06:29 GMT
This seat shouldn't have Stockton in the title. You wouldn't call Keighley and Illkley "Bradford North West". 'Stockton' (borough) 'West' (compass point). Would you rename 'Croydon South' Coulsdon and Purley? Probably, but they've been in Croydon since 1965. I agree and there's no reason you can't have 'Yarm' as a seat name or 'Yarm and Ingleby Barwick' (I'm sure the former is in this seat, as I'm fairly the confident the latter is). |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jul 9, 2024 6:58:10 GMT
This seat shouldn't have Stockton in the title. You wouldn't call Keighley and Illkley "Bradford North West". My least favourite for this are the two Bury seats. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Jul 9, 2024 8:42:57 GMT
Yes. One should be called simply Bury, and the other Prestwich & Whitefield, or something like that.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2024 8:48:52 GMT
Bury & Radcliffe and Middleton & Prestwich like the good old days. We have crap consituency nomenclature these days, to the point where MPs just pick their own names e.g. Richmond & N Kingston; Putney, Roehampton & Southfields, and Hove & Portslade (which the boundary commission actually took Peter Kyle up on).
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 10, 2024 12:17:54 GMT
You cannot call a constituency that includes no part of Middleton "Middleton & Prestwich", nor one that includes only about a quarter of Radcliffe "Bury and Radcliffe".
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