Houghton and Sunderland South

[stb12]

Houghton and Sunderland South

[iain]

www.sunderland.gov.uk/PGE4July2024

Just the 5 main parties

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Jun 8, 2024 10:59:29 GMT iain said:

www.sunderland.gov.uk/PGE4July2024

Just the 5 main parties

All the easier to count first.

[East Anglian Lefty]

I think Central normally declares earlier, because it takes less time for the ballot boxes to get to the count?

[Ports]

Jun 10, 2024 11:15:13 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

I think Central normally declares earlier, because it takes less time for the ballot boxes to get to the count?

In the last few elections it's been South first, then Central, then West.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 12, 2024 11:46:03 GMT Ports said:

Jun 10, 2024 11:15:13 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

I think Central normally declares earlier, because it takes less time for the ballot boxes to get to the count?

In the last few elections it's been South first, then Central, then West.

The rival for being first to declare being Newcastle Central.

[carolus]

Lab hold.

Lab 18,847

Reform 11,668
Con 5,514
LD 2,290
Green 1,723

[kitesurfer]

Bridget Phillipson is a very divisive cabinet minister in my opinion particularly with her tweet last weekend. When Reform say that a Labour government is little worse than a Tory government, they surely cannot say this when it comes to education policy if you are on the right of politics. When you add the Tory and Reform vote, Phillipson would have very nearly lost. Surely this has got to be a key seat where Conservative and Reform will have an informal pact and/or stand down a candidate in 2029. This is probably a seat where the Tories should consider standing down if anyone has to do so. It would be highly symbolic if she were to lose.

[sanders]

Oct 12, 2024 7:00:31 GMT kitesurfer said:

Bridget Phillipson is a very divisive cabinet minister in my opinion particularly with her tweet last weekend. When Reform say that a Labour government is little worse than a Tory government, they surely cannot say this when it comes to education policy if you are on the right of politics. When you add the Tory and Reform vote, Phillipson would have very nearly lost. Surely this has got to be a key seat where Conservative and Reform will have an informal pact and/or stand down a candidate in 2029. This is probably a seat where the Tories should consider standing down if anyone has to do so. It would be highly symbolic if she were to lose.

If the Brexit Party hadn't stood, Tories might have won in 2019. I don't see them conceding it. Voters may shift to Reform, however. Not many private schools in Houghton. I imagine VAT on school fees is probably popular around these parts. It's Sunderland after all, not Surrey. I have lots of old Labour family in Sunderland and the north east more broadly. They didn't like Blair or Starmer, but Corbyn was generally popular with them. They all worked in the public sector. 

[The Bishop]

Oct 12, 2024 7:00:31 GMT kitesurfer said:

Bridget Phillipson is a very divisive cabinet minister in my opinion particularly with her tweet last weekend. When Reform say that a Labour government is little worse than a Tory government, they surely cannot say this when it comes to education policy if you are on the right of politics. When you add the Tory and Reform vote, Phillipson would have very nearly lost. Surely this has got to be a key seat where Conservative and Reform will have an informal pact and/or stand down a candidate in 2029. This is probably a seat where the Tories should consider standing down if anyone has to do so. It would be highly symbolic if she were to lose.

No, that would be a *formal* pact. An "informal" one would be one of them just fielding a paper candidate and making that clear locally.

Indeed there is some evidence that such arrangements can be more effective electorally than simply standing people down. And as in most similar seats, simply adding the Tory and Reform totals into one monolithic bloc is a category error and misunderstands what actually happened at the last election.

[john07]

Oct 12, 2024 7:00:31 GMT kitesurfer said:

Bridget Phillipson is a very divisive cabinet minister in my opinion particularly with her tweet last weekend. When Reform say that a Labour government is little worse than a Tory government, they surely cannot say this when it comes to education policy if you are on the right of politics. When you add the Tory and Reform vote, Phillipson would have very nearly lost. Surely this has got to be a key seat where Conservative and Reform will have an informal pact and/or stand down a candidate in 2029. This is probably a seat where the Tories should consider standing down if anyone has to do so. It would be highly symbolic if she were to lose.

A very simplistic view of politics in my opinion.

With the current electoral system, is there room for two major parties of the Right to coexist long-term with informal local pacts here and there?

Farage seems to be trying to replace the Conservatives if anything. The Tories appear to be moving further and further to the Right to counter this. It’s not going to end well

[kitesurfer]

Oct 12, 2024 11:42:18 GMT john07 said:

Oct 12, 2024 7:00:31 GMT kitesurfer said:

Bridget Phillipson is a very divisive cabinet minister in my opinion particularly with her tweet last weekend. When Reform say that a Labour government is little worse than a Tory government, they surely cannot say this when it comes to education policy if you are on the right of politics. When you add the Tory and Reform vote, Phillipson would have very nearly lost. Surely this has got to be a key seat where Conservative and Reform will have an informal pact and/or stand down a candidate in 2029. This is probably a seat where the Tories should consider standing down if anyone has to do so. It would be highly symbolic if she were to lose.

A very simplistic view of politics in my opinion.

With the current electoral system, is there room for two major parties of the Right to coexist long-term with informal local pacts here and there?

Farage seems to be trying to replace the Conservatives if anything. The Tories appear to be moving further and further to the Right to counter this. It’s not going to end well

The Lib Dems and Labour co-exist on the left with informal pacts in the election this year.

[aargauer]

Oct 12, 2024 11:42:18 GMT john07 said:

Oct 12, 2024 7:00:31 GMT kitesurfer said:

Bridget Phillipson is a very divisive cabinet minister in my opinion particularly with her tweet last weekend. When Reform say that a Labour government is little worse than a Tory government, they surely cannot say this when it comes to education policy if you are on the right of politics. When you add the Tory and Reform vote, Phillipson would have very nearly lost. Surely this has got to be a key seat where Conservative and Reform will have an informal pact and/or stand down a candidate in 2029. This is probably a seat where the Tories should consider standing down if anyone has to do so. It would be highly symbolic if she were to lose.

A very simplistic view of politics in my opinion.

With the current electoral system, is there room for two major parties of the Right to coexist long-term with informal local pacts here and there?

Farage seems to be trying to replace the Conservatives if anything. The Tories appear to be moving further and further to the Right to counter this. It’s not going to end well

With ferocious right wing radical Jeremy hunt effectively running the country?

[cathyc]

Oct 12, 2024 15:09:28 GMT aargauer said:

Oct 12, 2024 11:42:18 GMT john07 said:

A very simplistic view of politics in my opinion.

With the current electoral system, is there room for two major parties of the Right to coexist long-term with informal local pacts here and there?

Farage seems to be trying to replace the Conservatives if anything. The Tories appear to be moving further and further to the Right to counter this. It’s not going to end well

With ferocious right wing radical Jeremy hunt effectively running the country?

Correct.  Apart from the word 'effectively'.

[aargauer]

Oct 12, 2024 15:43:45 GMT cathyc said:

Oct 12, 2024 15:09:28 GMT aargauer said:

With ferocious right wing radical Jeremy hunt effectively running the country?

Correct.  Apart from the word 'effectively'.

In my view the most right wing administration of my lifetime (excepting arguably the late thatcher period of my early childhood), was the coalition government. Since then it's been centrist economics, with a dash of populism everyone knows the Tory party isn't serious about.

sirbenjamin would doubtless agree

[John Chanin]

Oct 12, 2024 15:09:28 GMT aargauer said:

Oct 12, 2024 11:42:18 GMT john07 said:

A very simplistic view of politics in my opinion.

With the current electoral system, is there room for two major parties of the Right to coexist long-term with informal local pacts here and there?

Farage seems to be trying to replace the Conservatives if anything. The Tories appear to be moving further and further to the Right to counter this. It’s not going to end well

With ferocious right wing radical Jeremy hunt effectively running the country?

Hunt of course is a traditional right winger as we used to understand the term, like Osborne.  He is in favour of low taxes, particularly on "wealth creators", financial orthodoxy, low benefits, scanty public services, and "standing on your own feet".

He is however not a populist peddler of snake oil, and has no interest in culture wars, and telling people what to do, which is increasingly what people understand by "right wing".

[cathyc]

Oct 12, 2024 15:50:54 GMT aargauer said:

Oct 12, 2024 15:43:45 GMT cathyc said:

Correct.  Apart from the word 'effectively'.

In my view the most right wing administration of my lifetime (excepting arguably the late thatcher period of my early childhood), was the coalition government. Since then it's been centrist economics, with a dash of populism everyone knows the Tory party isn't serious about.

sirbenjamin would doubtless agree

The Corbynisation of the Conservative Party goes on.  "We only failed because we weren't radical enough".  

The most right wing administration of my lifetime was Liz Truss', and what an immediate disaster that turned out to be.  The party has now contrived to pick two out-and-out right wingers as the play-off finalists and still it's not head bangery enough for some.

[aargauer]

Oct 12, 2024 15:53:39 GMT John Chanin said:

Oct 12, 2024 15:09:28 GMT aargauer said:

With ferocious right wing radical Jeremy hunt effectively running the country?

Hunt of course is a traditional right winger as we used to understand the term, like Osborne.  He is in favour of low taxes, particularly on "wealth creators", financial orthodoxy, low benefits, scanty public services, and "standing on your own feet".

He is however not a populist peddler of snake oil, and has no interest in culture wars, and telling people what to do, which is increasingly what people understand by "right wing".

I think that's pushing it as a description of how right wing he is, but irrespective it's not a reaction to reform.

[aargauer]

Oct 12, 2024 16:20:00 GMT cathyc said:

Oct 12, 2024 15:50:54 GMT aargauer said:

In my view the most right wing administration of my lifetime (excepting arguably the late thatcher period of my early childhood), was the coalition government. Since then it's been centrist economics, with a dash of populism everyone knows the Tory party isn't serious about.

sirbenjamin would doubtless agree

The Corbynisation of the Conservative Party goes on.  "We only failed because we weren't radical enough".  

The most right wing administration of my lifetime was Liz Truss', and what an immediate disaster that turned out to be.  The party has now contrived to pick two out-and-out right wingers as the play-off finalists and still it's not head bangery enough for some.

Well no, it's not nearly enough with marginal tax at 63% for those without kids and then the out and out right wingers in the Tory party deciding that's not enough for parents of young children and should be over 100%.

When you are apparently earning such a high income that you have "broad shoulders" but such a low income that you can't afford to buy a house and send your kids to nursery and commute simultaneously.