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Hexham
Mar 13, 2024 22:22:57 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 22:22:57 GMT
Hexham
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,251
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Hexham
Jun 8, 2024 10:30:57 GMT
Post by iain on Jun 8, 2024 10:30:57 GMT
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Hexham
Jul 5, 2024 20:21:10 GMT
Post by Clark on Jul 5, 2024 20:21:10 GMT
How many seats did Reform not stand in England? Just a straight 15% swing CON > LAB here to gain the seat - 3,700 majority
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European Lefty
Top Poster
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 6,044
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Hexham
Jul 6, 2024 15:54:36 GMT
Post by European Lefty on Jul 6, 2024 15:54:36 GMT
My Hexham friend was very scathing about Opperman when I messaged her yesterday - was her dislike of him widely shared in the constituency?
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Post by peterski on Jul 6, 2024 17:18:09 GMT
I would contend that a lack of Reform Uk candidate here had a plausibly neutral or even detrimental effect for the Tories as anti-tory votes which elsewhere went Reform went Labour instead. There is a level of idiocy in the contention that Reform UK votes were somehow a proxy for the Tories. The lack of Reform Uk on the ballot paper didn't help Simon Clarke on Teesside either.
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 598
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Hexham
Jul 6, 2024 19:13:33 GMT
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Post by Ports on Jul 6, 2024 19:13:33 GMT
I would contend that a lack of Reform Uk candidate here had a plausibly neutral or even detrimental effect for the Tories as anti-tory votes which elsewhere went Reform went Labour instead. There is a level of idiocy in the contention that Reform UK votes were somehow a proxy for the Tories. The lack of Reform Uk on the ballot paper didn't help Simon Clarke on Teesside either. The same applies for Maidenhead in which they mostly went LD - like in here and in Doncaster North the pact with the SDP had no effect.
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Hexham
Jul 6, 2024 22:18:41 GMT
Post by certain on Jul 6, 2024 22:18:41 GMT
My Hexham friend was very scathing about Opperman when I messaged her yesterday - was her dislike of him widely shared in the constituency? I thought him to be a bland yes-man, intent on climbing the greasy pole. But I don't think he was especially unpopular. He plays for a local cricket team. One of my elder grandson's friends was very pleased to secure his wicket. I bumped into him (literally) in Brocksbushes a few months ago. So he was quite well known locally.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,536
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Hexham
Jul 6, 2024 23:32:24 GMT
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Post by john07 on Jul 6, 2024 23:32:24 GMT
Most of my youngest daughter’s in-laws live in and around Ponteland in the Hexham constituency. At a gathering in Ponteland, a year or so back, my son-in-law’s Aunt stated that she would hate it if she lived in a Conservative constituency! No-one had the heart to tell her that Hexham had been Conservative/Unionist since 1924!
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,019
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Post by jamie on Jul 21, 2024 12:44:30 GMT
This is the sort of constituency where ward level results would be absolutely fascinating. Looking at local election results or even demographics leaves you scratching your head and second guessing yourself when trying to work out how Labour got 46% of the vote and a 7% lead.
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 153
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Post by birkinabe on Jul 21, 2024 13:21:46 GMT
This is the sort of constituency where ward level results would be absolutely fascinating. Looking at local election results or even demographics leaves you scratching your head and second guessing yourself when trying to work out how Labour got 46% of the vote and a 7% lead.
There are definitely an unusually high number of constituencies this time around that are like this; what's also shocking here in particular is just how badly the candidates not in the top two did (all of them lost their deposit).
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,536
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Post by john07 on Jul 21, 2024 13:36:55 GMT
I had a look at the Estimated Ward Level Winners (Health warnings apply) and Hexham ended up with seven wards each for Labour and Conservative. Even the four Ponteland Wards split two each!
Labour
Hayden and Hadrian Haltwhistle Corbridge Bywell Hexham Central Ponteland West Ponteland North
Conservative
Bellingham Humshaugh South Tynedale Hexham West Stocksfield and Broomhaugh Ponteland South and Heddon Ponteland East and Stannington
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 21, 2024 13:41:25 GMT
This is the sort of constituency where ward level results would be absolutely fascinating. Looking at local election results or even demographics leaves you scratching your head and second guessing yourself when trying to work out how Labour got 46% of the vote and a 7% lead.
There are definitely an unusually high number of constituencies this time around that are like this; what's also shocking here in particular is just how badly the candidates not in the top two did (all of them lost their deposit).
The really notable feature here is the unaccountable decision of Reform not to stand, so that the useless SDP could have a free hand to prop up the bottom of the list with only 2.3% and 300-votes behind a new Independent and lose a deposit. This would have been perceived locally as a tight 'straight fight' of the majors and any votes elsewhere were tedious, utterly wasted as regards the main event.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 21, 2024 13:56:18 GMT
There are definitely an unusually high number of constituencies this time around that are like this; what's also shocking here in particular is just how badly the candidates not in the top two did (all of them lost their deposit).
The really notable feature here is the unaccountable decision of Reform not to stand, so that the useless SDP could have a free hand to prop up the bottom of the list with only 2.3% and 300-votes behind a new Independent and lose a deposit. This would have been perceived locally as a tight 'straight fight' of the majors and any votes elsewhere were tedious, utterly wasted as regards the main event. When all 3 main parties are on that turf, I truly don't understand what the point of the SDP is. Like them or loath them, the workers party, Corbyn, Reform are at least offering something different.
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Hexham
Jul 21, 2024 14:03:57 GMT
Post by carlton43 on Jul 21, 2024 14:03:57 GMT
The really notable feature here is the unaccountable decision of Reform not to stand, so that the useless SDP could have a free hand to prop up the bottom of the list with only 2.3% and 300-votes behind a new Independent and lose a deposit. This would have been perceived locally as a tight 'straight fight' of the majors and any votes elsewhere were tedious, utterly wasted as regards the main event. When all 3 main parties are on that turf, I truly don't understand what the point of the SDP is. Like them or loath them, the workers party, Corbyn, Reform are at least offering something different. What on earth hold does the SDP have over Nige one wonders?
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Andrew_S
Top Poster
Posts: 28,032
Member is Online
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Hexham
Jul 21, 2024 14:07:31 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Jul 21, 2024 14:07:31 GMT
The really notable feature here is the unaccountable decision of Reform not to stand, so that the useless SDP could have a free hand to prop up the bottom of the list with only 2.3% and 300-votes behind a new Independent and lose a deposit. This would have been perceived locally as a tight 'straight fight' of the majors and any votes elsewhere were tedious, utterly wasted as regards the main event. When all 3 main parties are on that turf, I truly don't understand what the point of the SDP is. Like them or loath them, the workers party, Corbyn, Reform are at least offering something different. The SDP offers moderate social conservatism with moderate economic conservatism. Do any other parties do so?
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Post by Johncrane on Jul 21, 2024 14:21:11 GMT
When all 3 main parties are on that turf, I truly don't understand what the point of the SDP is. Like them or loath them, the workers party, Corbyn, Reform are at least offering something different. The SDP offers moderate social conservatism with moderate economic conservatism. Do any other parties do so? The Tories tried to frame themselves as such after 2019 and will probably do so again, Labour will also say the same in order to maintain their wide coalition, reform say they are as well, it’s just a crowded market and it seems unlikely they will ever break through
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Post by thirdchill on Jul 21, 2024 14:22:48 GMT
I had a look at the Estimated Ward Level Winners (Health warnings apply) and Hexham ended up with seven wards each for Labour and Conservative. Even the four Ponteland Wards split two each! Labour Hayden and Hadrian Haltwhistle Corbridge Bywell Hexham Central Ponteland West Ponteland North Conservative Bellingham Humshaugh South Tynedale Hexham West Stocksfield and Broomhaugh Ponteland South and Heddon Ponteland East and Stannington They've missed off a few wards for the constituency as a whole: Callerton & Throckley (Newcastle) Prudhoe North Prudhoe South Longhorsley Hexham East The first three of those would have gone to labour and by sizeable margins (Callerton & Throckley is also a much larger ward than any of the northumberland wards in terms of population). Hexham East probably labour too, though Longhorsley probably Conservative. I agree about the health warnings though, some of those wards don't look quite right. I'd put both the Ponteland Wards (West & North) and Corbridge in the Conservative Column and Hexham West in the Labour column. So that would give Labour winning 9 wards and the Conservatives winning 10 wards (19 wards in total in the constituency), however the margins in most of the wards that labour would have been quite large whereas the conservative majorities in the wards that went conservative would have been a lot smaller.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,019
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Post by jamie on Jul 21, 2024 14:53:11 GMT
My guesses (similar to thirdchill): Easily Labour: Bywell Callerton and Throckley Hexham Central and Acomb Prudhoe North Prudhoe Sourh Likely but more modestly Labour: Haltwhistle Haydon and Hadrian Hexham East Hexham West Stocksfield and Broomhaugh Marginal either way* Bellingham Humshaugh Ponteland South and Heddon South Tynedale Very likely but modestly Conservative: Corbridge Longhorsley Ponteland East and Stannington Ponteland North Ponteland West *I think but am not confident that South Tynedale would be Labour, Humshaugh along with Ponteland South and Heddon would be Conservative (I’m sure the Ponteland bit ain’t Labour), and Bellingham probably Conservative but not on the level of Corbridge etc.
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Hexham
Jul 21, 2024 15:45:38 GMT
Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2024 15:45:38 GMT
The really notable feature here is the unaccountable decision of Reform not to stand, so that the useless SDP could have a free hand to prop up the bottom of the list with only 2.3% and 300-votes behind a new Independent and lose a deposit. This would have been perceived locally as a tight 'straight fight' of the majors and any votes elsewhere were tedious, utterly wasted as regards the main event. When all 3 main parties are on that turf, I truly don't understand what the point of the SDP is. Clouds
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Post by aargauer on Jul 21, 2024 15:50:51 GMT
I had a look at the Estimated Ward Level Winners (Health warnings apply) and Hexham ended up with seven wards each for Labour and Conservative. Even the four Ponteland Wards split two each! Labour Hayden and Hadrian Haltwhistle Corbridge Bywell Hexham Central Ponteland West Ponteland North Conservative Bellingham Humshaugh South Tynedale Hexham West Stocksfield and Broomhaugh Ponteland South and Heddon Ponteland East and Stannington Health warnings indeed. There is no way the Tories won Stocksfield or anything in Hexham and likewise Labour aren't going to win anything in ponteland, ever. I'd also be amazed if Labour won corbridge.
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