Hexham

[stb12]

Hexham

[iain]

www.northumberland.gov.uk/elections.aspx

6 parties: Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Green, SDP, Independent

No Reform

[Clark]

How many seats did Reform not stand in England? Just a straight 15% swing CON > LAB here to gain the seat - 3,700 majority

[Deleted]

My Hexham friend was very scathing about Opperman when I messaged her yesterday - was her dislike of him widely shared in the constituency?

[peterski]

I would contend that a lack of Reform Uk candidate here had a plausibly neutral or even detrimental effect for the Tories as anti-tory votes which elsewhere went Reform went Labour instead. There is a level of idiocy in the contention that Reform UK votes were somehow a proxy for the Tories. The lack of Reform Uk on the ballot paper didn't help Simon Clarke on Teesside either.

[Ports]

Jul 6, 2024 17:18:09 GMT peterski said:

I would contend that a lack of Reform Uk candidate here had a plausibly neutral or even detrimental effect for the Tories as anti-tory votes which elsewhere went Reform went Labour instead. There is a level of idiocy in the contention that Reform UK votes were somehow a proxy for the Tories. The lack of Reform Uk on the ballot paper didn't help Simon Clarke on Teesside either.

The same applies for Maidenhead in which they mostly went LD - like in here and in Doncaster North the pact with the SDP had no effect.

[certain]

Jul 6, 2024 15:54:36 GMT @europeanlefty said:

My Hexham friend was very scathing about Opperman when I messaged her yesterday - was her dislike of him widely shared in the constituency?

I thought him to be a bland yes-man, intent on climbing the greasy pole. But I don't think he was especially unpopular.

He plays for a local cricket team. One of my elder grandson's friends was very pleased to secure his wicket.  

I bumped into him (literally) in Brocksbushes a few months ago.

So he was quite well known locally.

[john07]

Most of my youngest daughter’s in-laws live in and around Ponteland in the Hexham constituency. At a gathering in Ponteland, a year or so back, my son-in-law’s Aunt stated that she would hate it if she lived in a Conservative constituency! No-one had the heart to tell her that Hexham had been Conservative/Unionist since 1924!

[jamie]

This is the sort of constituency where ward level results would be absolutely fascinating. Looking at local election results or even demographics leaves you scratching your head and second guessing yourself when trying to work out how Labour got 46% of the vote and a 7% lead.

[birkinabe]

Jul 21, 2024 12:44:30 GMT jamie said:

This is the sort of constituency where ward level results would be absolutely fascinating. Looking at local election results or even demographics leaves you scratching your head and second guessing yourself when trying to work out how Labour got 46% of the vote and a 7% lead.

There are definitely an unusually high number of constituencies this time around that are like this; what's also shocking here in particular is just how badly the candidates not in the top two did (all of them lost their deposit).

[john07]

I had a look at the Estimated Ward Level Winners (Health warnings apply) and Hexham ended up with seven wards each for Labour and Conservative. Even the four Ponteland Wards split two each!

Labour

Hayden and Hadrian
Haltwhistle
Corbridge
Bywell
Hexham Central
Ponteland West
Ponteland North

Conservative

Bellingham
Humshaugh
South Tynedale
Hexham West
Stocksfield and Broomhaugh
Ponteland South and Heddon
Ponteland East and Stannington

[carlton43]

Jul 21, 2024 13:21:46 GMT birkinabe said:

Jul 21, 2024 12:44:30 GMT jamie said:

This is the sort of constituency where ward level results would be absolutely fascinating. Looking at local election results or even demographics leaves you scratching your head and second guessing yourself when trying to work out how Labour got 46% of the vote and a 7% lead.

There are definitely an unusually high number of constituencies this time around that are like this; what's also shocking here in particular is just how badly the candidates not in the top two did (all of them lost their deposit).

The really notable feature here is the unaccountable decision of Reform not to stand, so that the useless SDP could have a free hand to prop up the bottom of the list with only 2.3% and 300-votes behind a new Independent and lose a deposit.  This would have been perceived locally as a tight 'straight fight' of the majors and any votes elsewhere were tedious, utterly wasted as regards the main event.

[aargauer]

Jul 21, 2024 13:41:25 GMT carlton43 said:

Jul 21, 2024 13:21:46 GMT birkinabe said:

There are definitely an unusually high number of constituencies this time around that are like this; what's also shocking here in particular is just how badly the candidates not in the top two did (all of them lost their deposit).

The really notable feature here is the unaccountable decision of Reform not to stand, so that the useless SDP could have a free hand to prop up the bottom of the list with only 2.3% and 300-votes behind a new Independent and lose a deposit.  This would have been perceived locally as a tight 'straight fight' of the majors and any votes elsewhere were tedious, utterly wasted as regards the main event.

When all 3 main parties are on that turf, I truly don't understand what the point of the SDP is.

Like them or loath them, the workers party, Corbyn, Reform are at least offering something different.

[carlton43]

Jul 21, 2024 13:56:18 GMT aargauer said:

Jul 21, 2024 13:41:25 GMT carlton43 said:

The really notable feature here is the unaccountable decision of Reform not to stand, so that the useless SDP could have a free hand to prop up the bottom of the list with only 2.3% and 300-votes behind a new Independent and lose a deposit.  This would have been perceived locally as a tight 'straight fight' of the majors and any votes elsewhere were tedious, utterly wasted as regards the main event.

When all 3 main parties are on that turf, I truly don't understand what the point of the SDP is.

Like them or loath them, the workers party, Corbyn, Reform are at least offering something different.

What on earth hold does the SDP have over Nige one wonders?

[Andrew_S]

Jul 21, 2024 13:56:18 GMT aargauer said:

Jul 21, 2024 13:41:25 GMT carlton43 said:

The really notable feature here is the unaccountable decision of Reform not to stand, so that the useless SDP could have a free hand to prop up the bottom of the list with only 2.3% and 300-votes behind a new Independent and lose a deposit.  This would have been perceived locally as a tight 'straight fight' of the majors and any votes elsewhere were tedious, utterly wasted as regards the main event.

When all 3 main parties are on that turf, I truly don't understand what the point of the SDP is.

Like them or loath them, the workers party, Corbyn, Reform are at least offering something different.

The SDP offers moderate social conservatism with moderate economic conservatism. Do any other parties do so?

[Johncrane]

Jul 21, 2024 14:07:31 GMT Andrew_S said:

Jul 21, 2024 13:56:18 GMT aargauer said:

When all 3 main parties are on that turf, I truly don't understand what the point of the SDP is.

Like them or loath them, the workers party, Corbyn, Reform are at least offering something different.

The SDP offers moderate social conservatism with moderate economic conservatism. Do any other parties do so?

The Tories tried to frame themselves as such after 2019 and will probably do so again, Labour will also say the same in order to maintain their wide coalition, reform say they are as well, it’s just a crowded market and it seems unlikely they will ever break through

[thirdchill]

Jul 21, 2024 13:36:55 GMT john07 said:

I had a look at the Estimated Ward Level Winners (Health warnings apply) and Hexham ended up with seven wards each for Labour and Conservative. Even the four Ponteland Wards split two each!

Labour

Hayden and Hadrian
Haltwhistle
Corbridge
Bywell
Hexham Central
Ponteland West
Ponteland North

Conservative

Bellingham
Humshaugh
South Tynedale
Hexham West
Stocksfield and Broomhaugh
Ponteland South and Heddon
Ponteland East and Stannington

They've missed off a few wards for the constituency as a whole:

Callerton & Throckley (Newcastle)
Prudhoe North
Prudhoe South
Longhorsley
Hexham East

The first three of those would have gone to labour and by sizeable margins (Callerton & Throckley is also a much larger ward than any of the northumberland wards in terms of population). Hexham East probably labour too, though Longhorsley probably Conservative.

I agree about the health warnings though, some of those wards don't look quite right. I'd put both the Ponteland Wards (West & North) and Corbridge in the Conservative Column and Hexham West in the Labour column.

So that would give Labour winning 9 wards and the Conservatives winning 10 wards (19 wards in total in the constituency), however the margins in most of the wards that labour would have been quite large whereas the conservative majorities in the wards that went conservative would have been a lot smaller.

[jamie]

My guesses (similar to thirdchill):

Easily Labour:
Bywell
Callerton and Throckley
Hexham Central and Acomb
Prudhoe North
Prudhoe Sourh

Likely but more modestly Labour:
Haltwhistle
Haydon and Hadrian
Hexham East
Hexham West
Stocksfield and Broomhaugh

Marginal either way*
Bellingham
Humshaugh
Ponteland South and Heddon
South Tynedale

Very likely but modestly Conservative:
Corbridge
Longhorsley
Ponteland East and Stannington
Ponteland North
Ponteland West

*I think but am not confident that South Tynedale would be Labour, Humshaugh along with Ponteland South and Heddon would be Conservative (I’m sure the Ponteland bit ain’t Labour), and Bellingham probably Conservative but not on the level of Corbridge etc.

[johnloony]

Jul 21, 2024 13:56:18 GMT aargauer said:

Jul 21, 2024 13:41:25 GMT carlton43 said:

The really notable feature here is the unaccountable decision of Reform not to stand, so that the useless SDP could have a free hand to prop up the bottom of the list with only 2.3% and 300-votes behind a new Independent and lose a deposit.  This would have been perceived locally as a tight 'straight fight' of the majors and any votes elsewhere were tedious, utterly wasted as regards the main event.

When all 3 main parties are on that turf, I truly don't understand what the point of the SDP is.

Clouds

[aargauer]

Jul 21, 2024 13:36:55 GMT john07 said:

I had a look at the Estimated Ward Level Winners (Health warnings apply) and Hexham ended up with seven wards each for Labour and Conservative. Even the four Ponteland Wards split two each!

Labour

Hayden and Hadrian
Haltwhistle
Corbridge
Bywell
Hexham Central
Ponteland West
Ponteland North

Conservative

Bellingham
Humshaugh
South Tynedale
Hexham West
Stocksfield and Broomhaugh
Ponteland South and Heddon
Ponteland East and Stannington

Health warnings indeed.

There is no way the Tories won Stocksfield or anything in Hexham and likewise Labour aren't going to win anything in ponteland, ever.

I'd also be amazed if Labour won corbridge.