jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 11, 2024 16:37:35 GMT
You would think the Conservatives would get some sort of by-election boost, but I suppose in the current circumstances there aren’t many core Tory voters left in Hartlepool still sticking with them.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2024 21:23:34 GMT
If Reform is doing that well here, and Farage only jumped into the national race nine days ago, they have stupendous momentum here. Still, relative to UKIP in 2015, that is piss poor for them in the sense that this seat was 70% Leave. Masses of Houchen voters switching to Labour from the by-election here.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 12, 2024 21:26:53 GMT
If they can peel off some Labour voters, Reform are in with a shout. I can't imagine Starmer fever is strong here.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2024 21:28:50 GMT
If they can peel off some Labour voters, Reform are in with a shout. I can't imagine Starmer fever is strong here. Indeed. Currently, I think they'll get about 1/3 of the vote. They just need to get the Houchen voters on side. and get this poll on their leaflets. |
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xenon
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Post by xenon on Jun 13, 2024 13:37:12 GMT
I reckon a lot of Houchen voters are firmly to the left of him, particularly on economic policy (and hence like the regeneration stuff despite most of it being smoke and mirrors). Reform will have a harder time winning these voters than in some of the Essex etc seats where the median voter is more firmly on the economic right.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 12:59:55 GMT
2015 - UKIP 28%
2019 - BXP 25%
If (big if, mind) the polls narrow at all, this could get very interesting. How much of Jill Mortimer's vote from 2021 will shift to Farage's party?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 23:06:20 GMT
91% chance of Reform winning here, according to the BBC exit poll.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 5, 2024 12:30:37 GMT
91% chance of Reform winning here, according to the BBC exit poll. That got quite a bit wrong. Including some "99% chances", with no local factors, and by a distance. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2024 12:47:18 GMT
91% chance of Reform winning here, according to the BBC exit poll. That got quite a bit wrong. Including some "99% chances", with no local factors, and by a distance. 86 year old Frank Ward (father of Claire) being 90% certain to win Bassetlaw, not to mention Reform being 98-99% to win both Barnsley seats (neither were even that close) It is obvious that BxP only standing in non-Tory seats last time gummed up the work of the modellers, but they were warned by some about this beforehand. |
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