Darlington

[stb12]

Darlington

[ClevelandYorks]

Candidates so far:
Peter Gibson (Conservative, incumbent)
Lola McEvoy (Labour)
Simon Thorley (Lib Dem)
Matthew Snedker (Green, College ward cllr)
Andrew Raw (Reform UK)

[Ports]

Mar 14, 2024 10:18:33 GMT ClevelandYorks said:

Candidates so far:
Peter Gibson (Conservative, incumbent)
Lola McEvoy (Labour)
Simon Thorley (Lib Dem)
Matthew Snedker (Green, College ward cllr)
Andrew Raw (Reform UK)

www.darlington.gov.uk/media/21186/darlington-constituency-statement-of-persons-nominated-notice-of-poll-and-situation-of-polling-stations.pdf

As above, except Michael Walker is the Reform candidate.

[peterski]

Peculiarly profuse number of Tory posters around Darlington considering the circumstances.In fact I'd say Gibson is matching McEvoy in the poster stakes . A visible scattering of Vote Green stake boards too . Considering the relatively strong Tory results in the 2023 council elections and this years win for Ben Houchen it seems likely to be one of the lower swings of the marginals , although Labour will still win of course.

[peterski]

Peter Gibson did indeed go down fighting and Darlington will remain a key marginal. Like Redcar and Stockton West the Tory vote held up remarkably well.

[rcronald]

Jul 6, 2024 17:28:00 GMT peterski said:

Peter Gibson did indeed go down fighting and Darlington will remain a key marginal. Like Redcar and Stockton West the Tory vote held up remarkably well.

I really wish nothing but the best for the Tories in Teeside, unlike our national Tories, who were all words, no action and no direction, the Tories here seem to show toughness and passion that has been lacking in most of the country. Teeside being full of marginals (even places like Stockton North and Hartlepool have close to 50% Tory+Reform vote share) is going to benefit it and I wish nothing but the best for the residents.

[batman]

Any informed insights into why Labour had such difficulty winning here? I don't buy the theory that Rishi Sunak had a boy-next-door factor, after all that didn't happen for William Hague in the Blair years.

[eastmidlandsright]

Jul 6, 2024 18:44:26 GMT rcronald said:

Jul 6, 2024 17:28:00 GMT peterski said:

Peter Gibson did indeed go down fighting and Darlington will remain a key marginal. Like Redcar and Stockton West the Tory vote held up remarkably well.

I really wish nothing but the best for the Tories in Teeside, unlike our national Tories, who were all words, no action and no direction, the Tories here seem to show toughness and passion that has been lacking in most of the country. Teeside being full of marginals (even places like Stockton North and Hartlepool have close to 50% Tory+Reform vote share) is going to benefit it and I wish nothing but the best for the residents.

Houchen factor

[peterski]

Jul 6, 2024 19:54:28 GMT batman said:

Any informed insights into why Labour had such difficulty winning here? I don't buy the theory that Rishi Sunak had a boy-next-door factor, after all that didn't happen for William Hague in the Blair years.

Trust me , Sunak's influence here is entirely negative . Yet Gibson himself is viewed generally quite positively and unlike most of Northern England there are tangible benefits of 'levelling up' in the Treasury relocation and massive Railway station upgrade. Additionally I'm afraid to say the new Labour MP underwhelms and won't have enthused Labour support. .

[john07]

I just have a gut feeling that, for some reason, Darlington and parts of Teeside are trending to the Tories. I think that Houchen is a symptom rather than the cause of this trend. OK Labour made gains in the area but not a pronounced as might have been expected.

These trends are apparent in other post-industrial areas in the North. Meanwhile, Labour is overcoming 20,000 plus majorities in the South. I suspect that many of these gains will be permanent.

Maybe we are following the inversion of electoral geography in the USA?

[The Bishop]

Jul 6, 2024 20:02:58 GMT peterski said:

Jul 6, 2024 19:54:28 GMT batman said:

Any informed insights into why Labour had such difficulty winning here? I don't buy the theory that Rishi Sunak had a boy-next-door factor, after all that didn't happen for William Hague in the Blair years.

Trust me , Sunak's influence here is entirely negative . Yet Gibson himself is viewed generally quite positively and unlike most of Northern England there are tangible benefits of 'levelling up' in the Treasury relocation and massive Railway station upgrade. Additionally I'm afraid to say the new Labour MP underwhelms and won't have enthused Labour support. .

Yes, apart from the Houchen factor this is a (perhaps unusual) instance of pork barrel politics being fairly well implemented by the Tories and having some electoral effect.

[nyx]

Jul 6, 2024 17:28:00 GMT peterski said:

Peter Gibson did indeed go down fighting and Darlington will remain a key marginal.

The former does not necessarily imply the latter. A popular Conservative incumbent hanging onto a lot of support is one thing; it's another thing for a new candidate without the same reputation to replicate that performance.

[heslingtonian]

In fairness there's always been a respectably sized Conservative vote in Darlington and it's generally more of a Labour-leaning marginal than a safe Labour seat. The seat was Conservative held 1951-64 and 1983-92 as well as 2019-24. Since WW1, the lowest Conservative share of the vote is 26% (in 2005) suggesting they have always been politically relevant here.

[birkinabe]

Aug 5, 2024 16:33:11 GMT heslingtonian said:

In fairness there's always been a respectably sized Conservative vote in Darlington and it's generally more of a Labour-leaning marginal than a safe Labour seat. The seat was Conservative held 1951-64 and 1983-92 as well as 2019-24. Since WW1, the lowest Conservative share of the vote is 26% (in 2005) suggesting they have always been politically relevant here.

I get the impression that this is largely because the traditionally Conservative-voting areas of this seat are relatively sticky and, especially by the standards of the wider region, wouldn't have been particularly fertile ground for Reform either (to an extent this is also reflected in the EU referendum results for the wider unitary authority versus the rest of the Tees Valley combined authority area in particular).

[bjornhattan]

Aug 5, 2024 16:46:21 GMT birkinabe said:

Aug 5, 2024 16:33:11 GMT heslingtonian said:

In fairness there's always been a respectably sized Conservative vote in Darlington and it's generally more of a Labour-leaning marginal than a safe Labour seat. The seat was Conservative held 1951-64 and 1983-92 as well as 2019-24. Since WW1, the lowest Conservative share of the vote is 26% (in 2005) suggesting they have always been politically relevant here.

I get the impression that this is largely because the traditionally Conservative-voting areas of this seat are relatively sticky and, especially by the standards of the wider region, wouldn't have been particularly fertile ground for Reform either (to an extent this is also reflected in the EU referendum results for the wider unitary authority versus the rest of the Tees Valley combined authority area in particular).

To be fair, the traditional Conservative areas of this seat aren't necessarily obviously sticky. Darlington's west end is on a par with areas like the North Tyneside coast with extraordinarily high percentages of graduates and professionals compared with what you'd expect. I may be missing something here, but it looks like the sort of area that would be shifting quite sharply in Labour's direction - and if the civil service moves a lot of jobs here then I expect many of the managers in that will move and accelerate this trend.

I'd definitely say Darlington was overall quite a balanced seat though. I've often described the town (which is probably the most pleasant major place in the North East) as a curious mix of rough Durham post-industrial town and genteel North Yorkshire market town. It isn't the sort of place where Reform would really gain massive traction (even on the estates), so perhaps that did help.

[hengog]

In the days when  I was regularly in discussion with officials in whatever the Department of Education was called from time to time, being ‘ sent to Darlington’ was seen as a useful disciplinary measure.

[peterski]

I was surprised to see Darlington become part of the recent unpleasantness last night , we have often congratulated ourselves on having a lesser magnitude of social problems than our Tees Valley brethren. That being said , I have sensed genuine disquiet about recent rapid demographic change and I have fears that the attitude of the government will only make things worse.