Twickenham

[stb12]

Twickenham

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work

	Con	Lab	Lib
1945	48.3%	42.1%	9.6%
1950	55.7%	35.7%	8.6%
1951	54.3%	38.3%	7.4%
1955	58.2%	30.9%	10.9%
1959	57.2%	29.0%	13.8%
1964	49.2%	28.0%	20.9%
1966	48.0%	34.7%	17.2%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP	Grn
1970	54.7%	32.8%	11.6%
1974	46.8%	27.2%	25.9%
1974	47.0%	29.4%	23.1%
1979	52.3%	17.0%	29.6%	1.1%
1983	49.9%	7.7%	41.1%	0.8%
1987	51.2%	8.6%	38.8%		1.4%
1992	50.2%	9.3%	39.8%		0.7%

	Con	Lab	LD	Grn	Ref/UKIP/ BXP	NF/BNP
1997	37.6%	15.8%	45.0%
2001	33.2%	14.1%	48.7%	2.9%	1.2%
2005	32.2%	11.7%	51.5%	2.8%	1.5%
2010	34.1%	7.7%	54.5%	1.4%	1.2%	1.0%
2015	41.4%	11.4%	38.1%	4.1%	4.8%
2017	38.0%	9.1%	52.9%
2019	33.8%	8.7%	56.2%		1.3%

[batman]

the seat now is very similar to what it was in 1945 geographically, though not identical.

[Pete Whitehead]

May 9, 2024 20:38:45 GMT batman said:

the seat now is very similar to what it was in 1945 geographically, though not identical.

The current seat yes. It's mostly been unchanged since it's 1945 incarnation (it was a very different seat prior to that of course) - just East Twickenham excluded from 1983 to 1997 and Whitton to be excluded from the next election. But also since 1997 it has included a small area North of Chertsey Road which had previously been in Hounslow (Isleworth), which I think is what you're referring to

[batman]

yes that's right, but not just that, there's also the Butts Farm estate south of the Chertsey Road, several miles further south-west, which was also transferred in the same direction. It was previously in Heathfield ward but is now in West Twickenham. It was logical because although it was previously situated in Hounslow the housing actually belonged to Richmond-upon-Thames, although that's not unique (after all the Corporation of London owns & runs council housing well outside its municipal boundaries). As you say (and as I note in my profiles) Whitton ward is rather weirdly departing the constituency but this will have very little partisan effect to speak of, as the Lib Dems appear certain to hold Twickenham & Labour to hold Brentford & Isleworth. I presume that Ruth Cadbury is making herself known in Whitton now. It will be interesting to see if its presence in a Labour parliamentary constituency eventually strengthens the Labour vote in council elections, I think that Labour has some potential in the ward but it is very much unrealised

[Pete Whitehead]

May 10, 2024 8:52:55 GMT batman said:

yes that's right, but not just that, there's also the Butts Farm estate south of the Chertsey Road, several miles further south-west, which was also transferred in the same direction. It was previously in Heathfield ward but is now in West Twickenham. It was logical because although it was previously situated in Hounslow the housing actually belonged to Richmond-upon-Thames, although that's not unique (after all the Corporation of London owns & runs council housing well outside its municipal boundaries). As you say (and as I note in my profiles) Whitton ward is rather weirdly departing the constituency but this will have very little partisan effect to speak of, as the Lib Dems appear certain to hold Twickenham & Labour to hold Brentford & Isleworth. I presume that Ruth Cadbury is making herself known in Whitton now. It will be interesting to see if its presence in a Labour parliamentary constituency eventually strengthens the Labour vote in council elections, I think that Labour has some potential in the ward but it is very much unrealised

I didn't know about that one - presumably happened around the same time? (Mid 90s when most of these kind of adjustments occurred). That doesn't strike me as an especially logical move as the area seems to belong more naturally in Hanworth

[connor]

Liberal Democrat Hold

Munira Wilson MP (Liberal Democrat)

[Pete Whitehead]

That's a brave prediction. Is this really necessary?

[connor]

How is it brave? The LD's have won the seat 6 out of 7 elections. It's likely with polling that they'll get this seat back. It's a very likely prediction.

[Wisconsin]

Please stop.

[connor]

Block me if you don't like it. Not breaking any rules.

[swanarcadian]

May 22, 2024 22:23:33 GMT connor said:

Block me if you don't like it. Not breaking any rules.

Most of us love predictions. We probably don’t need them for the likes of Liverpool Walton or Maldon though unless you’re going to go into detail such as vote shares or something. Just a constructive suggestion to save yourself some time.

[connor]

I appreciate your feedback and thank you for being polite about it. With that said, it really begs the question why each seat needs a thread if the result will likely be a hold, especially if a seat has remained the same party for decades and decades.

Plus also I'm autistic and this is just one of these things I do that's very autistic-y and unusual. Just block my profile if it's something you don't want to read.

[Wisconsin]

Would it help if we changed the rules to make it that this is breaking rules?

[johnloony]

May 22, 2024 22:23:33 GMT connor said:

Block me if you don't like it. Not breaking any rules.

That’s not the point. If everybody (dozens of active regular forum members) simply posted all our predictions in hundreds of constituency threads about who we all think is going to win each one, it would just clutter up the threads and not actually be enlightening or informative. Better to restrict yourself to the ones where you have particular knowledge or theories about specific candidates or issues which other people might not know about.

Lots of us on this forum are autistic too, by the way

[Sg1]

In fact, I think you'd have to be at least a little autistic to be this interested in psephology. I certainly am, you're not alone.

[mondialito]

SOPN:

Tom BRUCE - Labour Party

Jonathan Roger HULLEY - Conservative Party

Chantal Lyn KERR-SHEPPARD - Green Party

Umair MALIK - Workers Party

Alex STARLING - Reform UK

Munira WILSON - Liberal Democrats