Sutton and Cheam

[ll1975]

Jun 24, 2024 11:26:48 GMT rogerg said:

 I suspect that the decades long Lib Dem (and Liberal) local profile combined with a great bar chart will be enough to take it. But this seat is tougher than the raw numbers might suggest.

So we live in one of what I would say is a trad Tory area. Haven't seen any Tory posters up, nor been canvassed and I think one communication from each of the big three through the post so far. On our road two neighbours, neither of them are particularly political, have put up LD posters. Of local acquaintances who have voted Tory in the past, most seem to be going towards sitting this one out or opting LD. On line I've had adverts from Lab (but for a different constituency), nothing from any other party. TBH the Tories seem to have thrown in the towel in SW London. 

[evergreenadam]

Lib Dems are actively pouring their efforts in London into this one now.

[batman]

Sensible although they still need to seal the deal in Wimbledon too. I don't see them gaining any other London seats apart from those two. Surrey, though, different matter.

[john07]

Jun 28, 2024 21:14:22 GMT batman said:

Sensible although they still need to seal the deal in Wimbledon too. I don't see them gaining any other London seats apart from those two. Surrey, though, different matter.

I thought that they were piling all their efforts into Hampstead and Highgate?

[carolus]

Jun 28, 2024 21:14:22 GMT batman said:

Sensible although they still need to seal the deal in Wimbledon too. I don't see them gaining any other London seats apart from those two. Surrey, though, different matter.

Carshalton, surely?

[batman]

Sorry, my bad. Of course Carshalton too

[Deleted]

The Conservatives' issues here are: they start with only around 50% in 2019; this seat voted Remain; the local Lib Dems opposed ULEZ so that's not a stick the blues can beat them with; this is a lot less white working-class than Carshalton & Wallington. Scully has had some decent results here but the Tories can only hold up for so long in their current form in this constituency. I think on the night the Lib Dems will gain this seat along with Carshalton, Wimbledon, and Hampstead & Highgate.

[michaelarden]

Jun 29, 2024 1:32:43 GMT @weld said:

The Conservatives' issues here are: they start with only around 50% in 2019; this seat voted Remain; the local Lib Dems opposed ULEZ so that's not a stick the blues can beat them with; this is a lot less white working-class than Carshalton & Wallington. Scully has had some decent results here but the Tories can only hold up for so long in their current form in this constituency. I think on the night the Lib Dems will gain this seat along with Carshalton, Wimbledon, and Hampstead & Highgate.

The Lib Dems won't win in H&H. They may not win here either.

[Deleted]

Jun 30, 2024 22:09:46 GMT michaelarden said:

Jun 29, 2024 1:32:43 GMT @weld said:

The Conservatives' issues here are: they start with only around 50% in 2019; this seat voted Remain; the local Lib Dems opposed ULEZ so that's not a stick the blues can beat them with; this is a lot less white working-class than Carshalton & Wallington. Scully has had some decent results here but the Tories can only hold up for so long in their current form in this constituency. I think on the night the Lib Dems will gain this seat along with Carshalton, Wimbledon, and Hampstead & Highgate.

The Lib Dems won't win in H&H. They may not win here either.

Surely given the history, and the fact that Tories won less than 50% of the vote here in 2019, Sutton & Cheam is an excellent pickup opportunity for Ed Davey's party.

[Sg1]

Jul 1, 2024 0:14:39 GMT @weld said:

Jun 30, 2024 22:09:46 GMT michaelarden said:

The Lib Dems won't win in H&H. They may not win here either.

Surely given the history, and the fact that Tories won less than 50% of the vote here in 2019, Sutton & Cheam is an excellent pickup opportunity for Ed Davey's party.

True, but the Lib Dems selected late here and will be against an incumbent Conservative. As far as I remember there is still a significant number of Conservative councillors in this constituency. Also the Liberal Democrats may have their hands full with Carshalton and Wimbledon.

[Deleted]

Jul 1, 2024 0:33:30 GMT Sg1 said:

Jul 1, 2024 0:14:39 GMT @weld said:

Surely given the history, and the fact that Tories won less than 50% of the vote here in 2019, Sutton & Cheam is an excellent pickup opportunity for Ed Davey's party.

True, but the Lib Dems selected late here and will be against an incumbent Conservative. As far as I remember there is still a significant number of Conservative councillors in this constituency. Also the Liberal Democrats may have their hands full with Carshalton and Wimbledon.

Carshalton & Wallington is tougher to flip than the Lib Dems think it is - and with current coalitions, this is more naturally Ed Davey supporting land than C&W. That seat is more Eurosceptic, more car-dependant, more blue collar, more council estate and more middle of the road suburbia than here. Labour will also advance a bit. 

[cogload]

If my social media is any guide the London lib dems have descended here en masse. We don't flip anything, that is for pancakes: with that in mind if they are all campaigning here what does that tell you about Carshalton; Wimbledon; and Esher?

[Deleted]

Jul 1, 2024 7:17:45 GMT cogload said:

If my social media is any guide the London lib dems have descended here en masse. We don't flip anything, that is for pancakes: with that in mind if they are all campaigning here what does that tell you about Carshalton; Wimbledon; and Esher?

Noah's arc.

[batman]

They will be fine in all of those seats if they keep a decent presence there and don't abandon it with 3 days to go. In Wimbledon they have to keep the basic groundwork going to make sure Labour doesn't take it, although I still regard that as unlikely. I see C&W & Esher/Walton as pretty straightforward gains given the polling situation. Although Labour has some potential in the former there is no evidence that they are doing any of the work necessary to fulfil it. It's probably a good idea for the LDs to flood Sutton & Cheam as it isn't in the bag yet - although I definitely favour them to take it.

[carolus]

I think it's worth bearing in mind that they are adjacent seats, in the same council, and that C&W has a majority of less than 700 votes, while S&C is more than 8000.

You can make all sorts of appeals to special circumstances and so on, but I don't believe it's reasonable to think that C&W is actually harder, or anywhere near as hard, an ask as S&C.

I'd view not gaining C&W as a clear failure on our part, whereas not gaining S&C would be more of a missed (and slightly self-inflicted) opportunity.

[Deleted]

Jul 1, 2024 8:29:08 GMT carolus said:

I think it's worth bearing in mind that they are adjacent seats, in the same council, and that C&W has a majority of less than 700 votes, while S&C is more than 8000.

You can make all sorts of appeals to special circumstances and so on, but I don't believe it's reasonable to think that C&W is actually harder, or anywhere near as hard, an ask as S&C.

I'd view not gaining C&W as a clear failure on our part, whereas not gaining S&C would be more of a missed (and slightly self-inflicted) opportunity.

Yes. I concede that it's a rather lazy assumption based on C&W being more Brexity, and over inflating ULEZ's potency as an electoral issue. Both will likely fall. 

[steve]

Jul 1, 2024 0:33:30 GMT Sg1 said:

Jul 1, 2024 0:14:39 GMT @weld said:

Surely given the history, and the fact that Tories won less than 50% of the vote here in 2019, Sutton & Cheam is an excellent pickup opportunity for Ed Davey's party.

True, but the Lib Dems selected late here and will be against an incumbent Conservative. As far as I remember there is still a significant number of Conservative councillors in this constituency. Also the Liberal Democrats may have their hands full with Carshalton and Wimbledon.

I may have missed something but I thought Scully had retired. Did he change his mind?

[steve]

Jul 1, 2024 8:06:48 GMT batman said:

They will be fine in all of those seats if they keep a decent presence there and don't abandon it with 3 days to go. In Wimbledon they have to keep the basic groundwork going to make sure Labour doesn't take it, although I still regard that as unlikely. I see C&W & Esher/Walton as pretty straightforward gains given the polling situation. Although Labour has some potential in the former there is no evidence that they are doing any of the work necessary to fulfil it. It's probably a good idea for the LDs to flood Sutton & Cheam as it isn't in the bag yet - although I definitely favour them to take it.

Judging by their social media output they're very much keeping up their effort in Wimbledon.

[Ports]

Jul 1, 2024 8:55:59 GMT steve said:

I may have missed something but I thought Scully had retired. Did he change his mind?

He did choose to stand down, you didn't miss anything.

[Sg1]

Jul 1, 2024 8:55:59 GMT steve said:

Jul 1, 2024 0:33:30 GMT Sg1 said:

True, but the Lib Dems selected late here and will be against an incumbent Conservative. As far as I remember there is still a significant number of Conservative councillors in this constituency. Also the Liberal Democrats may have their hands full with Carshalton and Wimbledon.

I may have missed something but I thought Scully had retired. Didn't he change his mind?

Yes, turns out I'm the one who missed something.