stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:58:02 GMT
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 2, 2024 18:27:55 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | | Con | Lab | Lib |
| | | | | | | | 1945 | 56.5% | 29.5% | 12.9% | | | 1950 | 67.3% | 23.2% | 9.5% | | | 1951 | 74.3% | 25.5% | 0.2% | | | 1955 | 76.3% | 23.7% | | | | 1959 | 71.4% | 19.4% | 9.2% | | | 1964 | 61.3% | 19.8% | 19.0% | | | 1966 | 60.1% | 24.8% | 15.1% | |
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP |
| | | | | | | | | 1970 | 68.0% | 21.8% | 10.1% | | | | 1974 | 59.0% | 17.3% | 23.1% | | | | 1974 | 59.7% | 18.7% | 21.0% | | | | 1979 | 67.5% | 17.0% | 14.3% | 1.2% | | | 1983 | 63.6% | 10.3% | 26.1% | | | | 1987 | 66.2% | 12.1% | 21.6% | | | | 1992 | 67.1% | 17.0% | 14.8% | | |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/
BXP | Grn | NF/BNP | | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 53.0% | 30.8% | 14.4% | 1.3% | | | | 2001 | 51.4% | 29.8% | 16.3% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | | 2005 | 51.7% | 23.8% | 19.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | | 2010 | 55.7% | 19.9% | 18.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | | 2015 | 58.6% | 20.8% | 5.1% | 11.1% | 3.4% | | | 2017 | 56.3% | 32.3% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | | | 2019 | 55.3% | 25.1% | 15.2% | 0.1% | 2.6% | |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Jun 8, 2024 7:17:36 GMT
Candidates here are: Jonathan M. BANKS Liberal Democrat Tarnvir S. ('Tony') GILL Labour Party Jessica M. ('Jess') LEE Green Party Ian J. PRICE Reform UK David T. SIMMONDS Conservative Party There is a link to the SOPN towards the foot of this page: www.hillingdon.gov.uk/article/13030/Voting |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2024 19:59:36 GMT
Despite some projections, I think the large Hindu vote here will keep Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner in the blue column. This seat is 31% Asian now. VAT on private schools won't help Labour here and IIRC, Merchant Taylors School is in this seat
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Post by batman on Jun 8, 2024 20:00:56 GMT
I agree that this is a likely Con Hold but not necessarily for those particular reasons, mainly.
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Post by mattb on Jun 8, 2024 20:02:22 GMT
Despite some projections, I think the large Hindu vote here will keep Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner in the blue column. This seat is 31% Asian now. VAT on private schools won't help Labour here and IIRC, Merchant Taylors School is in this seat Merchant Taylors is in SW Herts |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 8, 2024 20:06:44 GMT
Despite some projections, I think the large Hindu vote here will keep Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner in the blue column. This seat is 31% Asian now. VAT on private schools won't help Labour here and IIRC, Merchant Taylors School is in this seat You seem to have a bit of a blind spot where Moor Park is concerned |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2024 22:25:34 GMT
Despite some projections, I think the large Hindu vote here will keep Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner in the blue column. This seat is 31% Asian now. VAT on private schools won't help Labour here and IIRC, Merchant Taylors School is in this seat You seem to have a bit of a blind spot where Moor Park is concerned Moor fool me |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Jul 8, 2024 15:23:54 GMT
Large discrepancies in the electorate for this constituency:
Hillingdon council website: 69,904
BBC: 71,683
Sky News: 72,168
Is this a rare example of disagreement, or have others been noted elsewhere?
Added in edit: Obviously I have contacted Hillingdon electoral services and await their views!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 16:49:51 GMT
1997 / 2024 (Ruislip-Northwood / Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner)
Conservative - 53% / 45.4%
Labour - 30.8% / 29.3%
Lib Dem - 14.4% / 9.2%
Other - 1.8% / 16.1%
In Hendon, Harrow East and Brent West, the Tories did better relatively than in 1997.
Pinner is trending away from the Tories if you look at the 2022 locals. The Tory results there were OK for London standards but not for Harrow 2022 standards.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jul 9, 2024 7:25:54 GMT
In the 2021 Census, this seat is number 30 in England and Wales for its proportion in the highest socio-economic category ("Higher Professional and Managerial"). That actually makes it the highest ranked Conservative seat by this measure.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2024 7:49:44 GMT
In the 2021 Census, this seat is number 30 in England and Wales for its proportion in the highest socio-economic category ("Higher Professional and Managerial"). That actually makes it the highest ranked Conservative seat by this measure. Yes. A slight nibbling away at the Tory lead compared to 1997 here but Labour had a 15% lead nationally rather than 11%. CON +23 in 1997, CON +16 in 2024. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Jul 9, 2024 20:02:44 GMT
I know it is considered poor form to quote oneself, but I have an answer to question I posed yesterday regarding RN&P. Large discrepancies in the electorate for this constituency: Hillingdon council website: 69,904 BBC: 71,683 Sky News: 72,168 Is this a rare example of disagreement, or have others been noted elsewhere? Added in edit: Obviously I have contacted Hillingdon electoral services and await their views! I have received a message from electoral services at Hillingdon as follows: I can confirm that the figure showing on the council web site is an error. This is caused by the cross boundary nature of this constituency and this is an out of date figure. This will be corrected shortly to reflect the figure quoted by the BBC of 71,683 which is correct. I have no idea where Sky have got their figure which does not relate to any figure for this constituency. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 9, 2024 20:58:26 GMT
I know it is considered poor form to quote oneself, but I have an answer to question I posed yesterday regarding RN&P. Large discrepancies in the electorate for this constituency: Hillingdon council website: 69,904 BBC: 71,683 Sky News: 72,168 Is this a rare example of disagreement, or have others been noted elsewhere? Added in edit: Obviously I have contacted Hillingdon electoral services and await their views! I have received a message from electoral services at Hillingdon as follows: I can confirm that the figure showing on the council web site is an error. This is caused by the cross boundary nature of this constituency and this is an out of date figure. This will be corrected shortly to reflect the figure quoted by the BBC of 71,683 which is correct. I have no idea where Sky have got their figure which does not relate to any figure for this constituency.71,683 and 72,168 have both got a “168” in them, o it might simply be a slip of a finger typing an extra 2 without the person noticing. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2024 4:21:58 GMT
In the 2021 Census, this seat is number 30 in England and Wales for its proportion in the highest socio-economic category ("Higher Professional and Managerial"). That actually makes it the highest ranked Conservative seat by this measure. Yes. A slight nibbling away at the Tory lead compared to 1997 here but Labour had a 15% lead nationally rather than 11%. CON +23 in 1997, CON +16 in 2024. TBQH I didn't expect Harrow East to vote to the right of this seat. I guess the demographics, in the context of this election with this Tory leader, are better. |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 21, 2024 9:05:06 GMT
Yes. A slight nibbling away at the Tory lead compared to 1997 here but Labour had a 15% lead nationally rather than 11%. CON +23 in 1997, CON +16 in 2024. TBQH I didn't expect Harrow East to vote to the right of this seat. I guess the demographics, in the context of this election with this Tory leader, are better. Yes, even accounting for the fact that the concentration of wealth in Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner makes it considerably more resistant than Harrow East. Although Harrow East was affluent enough to be considered a surprise gain in 1997, there was never a possibility of Ruislip- Northwood, this seat's predecessor, falling to Labour even then. ULEZ still remained a factor as well. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2024 9:09:49 GMT
Harrow East wasn't a surprise gain in 1997
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Post by batman on Jul 21, 2024 9:20:24 GMT
Indeed, it was Harrow West which was a surprise that year. After all it still included Pinner & Hatch End then.
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