Romford

[stb12]

Romford

[John Chanin]

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[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work

	Con	Lab	Lib
1945	33.3%	53.4%	13.3%
1950	46.2%	43.4%	10.5%
1951	50.9%	47.5%	1.6%
1955	53.2%	44.8%	2.0%
1959	48.5%	35.5%	16.0%
1964	42.7%	39.6%	16.4%
1966	50.2%	49.8%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP	Grn
1970	55.8%	42.3%	1.8%
1974	38.6%	33.2%	27.3%
1974	42.4%	37.6%	19.3%
1979	53.0%	33.9%	11.2%	2.0%
1983	53.6%	19.9%	25.4%	1.1%
1987	56.1%	23.2%	19.9%		0.8%
1992	56.9%	29.6%	12.3%		1.2%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP/ BXP	NF/BNP	Grn
1997	41.3%	44.1%	7.7%	3.4%	1.1%
2001	52.0%	37.6%	7.7%	1.6%	1.0%
2005	57.4%	29.0%	8.1%	2.3%	3.0%
2010	56.1%	19.5%	12.0%	4.4%	5.2%
2015	51.1%	20.8%	2.9%	22.8%		2.5%
2017	59.5%	31.7%	2.4%	4.7%	0.4%	1.6%
2019	64.8%	26.4%	5.8%			3.0%

[batman]

May 27, 2024 21:40:06 GMT swingometer said:

CON HOLD, only just

quite possibly but Labour are definitely working this, for the first time for a long while

[mondialito]

SOPN:

Andrew ACHILLEOS - Labour Party

Colin BIRCH - English Constitution Party

Thomas Patrick CLARKE - Liberal Democrats

David HUGHES - Green Party

Philip Joseph HYDE - Reform UK

Zhafaran QAYUM - Workers Party

Andrew Richard ROSINDELL - Conservative Party

[greenhert]

Despite both Reform UK's and Labour's potential here this should be one of the few seats in Greater London the Conservatives are likely to hold, especially with Andrew Rosindell standing for re-election.

The only other Greater London seats the Conservatives are likely to hold this year are Harrow East, Hornchurch & Upminster, Old Bexley & Sidcup, Orpington, and Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner. Even super-rich Chelsea & Fulham and the Cities of London & Westminster will fall to Labour as current polling stands, as will the previously rock-solidly suburban Conservative bastions of Chingford & Woodford Green and Croydon South.

[batman]

Bexleyheath & Crawford too I think plus Bromley & Biggin Hill

[right]

Romford fell in 1997 and there has been quite a lot of Labour voters moving in from central London since that time. Andrew Rosindell may have an excellent reputation as a local MP and a personal following that is way out of line compared to most MPs, the underlying fundamentals are shifting. This is the sort of seat that a supermajority would sweep up.

If the polls move out of one party parliament territory then of course this will be safe this time and may remain so for until Rozza becomes too old to be an assiduous local MP. But the polls ain't moving yet.

If Labour do snatch this and Rosindell hungs around it could be a very easy win back for the Conservatives.

[Deleted]

Yeah, but the Elizabeth Line may change this seat in future. You may see some of the 'geezer' vote selling their ex-council houses and retiring to Essex. It's not Dagenham, but it's changing a bit. Romford may swing a bit to Labour, along with most of London. Although, FWIW, animosity re: Khan and ULEZ are real here, and they may have ebbed a bit since May. Rosindell has been a good fit for this seat in the 2000s and 2010s - how long that will still be the case is anyone's guess. I'd still be gobsmacked if Labour won this. Farage's party will poll well here, like they did in 2015.  

[right]

Jun 13, 2024 5:49:58 GMT @weld said:

Yeah, but the Elizabeth Line may change this seat in future. You may see some of the 'geezer' vote selling their ex-council houses and retiring to Essex. It's not Dagenham, but it's changing a bit. Romford may swing a bit to Labour, along with most of London. Although, FWIW, animosity re: Khan and ULEZ are real here, and they may have ebbed a bit since May. Rosindell has been a good fit for this seat in the 2000s and 2010s - how long that will still be the case is anyone's guess. I'd still be gobsmacked if Labour won this. Farage's party will poll well here, like they did in 2015.  

A good point about ULEZ.  Hard to overstate the anger about that in some parts of Outer London, and Romford should be one of those parts.

[jdc]

Jun 13, 2024 7:59:03 GMT right said:

Jun 13, 2024 5:49:58 GMT @weld said:

Yeah, but the Elizabeth Line may change this seat in future. You may see some of the 'geezer' vote selling their ex-council houses and retiring to Essex. It's not Dagenham, but it's changing a bit. Romford may swing a bit to Labour, along with most of London. Although, FWIW, animosity re: Khan and ULEZ are real here, and they may have ebbed a bit since May. Rosindell has been a good fit for this seat in the 2000s and 2010s - how long that will still be the case is anyone's guess. I'd still be gobsmacked if Labour won this. Farage's party will poll well here, like they did in 2015.  

A good point about ULEZ.  Hard to overstate the anger about that in some parts of Outer London, and Romford should be one of those parts.

One might imagine they've ebbed more than a bit as a vast number of people found out their vehicles are ULEZ-compliant in reality, as opposed to the scare stories in theory...

[Deleted]

Jun 13, 2024 8:09:42 GMT jdc said:

Jun 13, 2024 7:59:03 GMT right said:

A good point about ULEZ.  Hard to overstate the anger about that in some parts of Outer London, and Romford should be one of those parts.

One might imagine they've ebbed more than a bit as a vast number of people found out their vehicles are ULEZ-compliant in reality, as opposed to the scare stories in theory...

How does it still rake in pots of cash then? A question not a criticism of your point. 

[batman]

The answer to your question may partly be that those paying the ULEZ charge are not necessarily electors in Greater London but may be coming from outside into London for business or personal-related purposes.

In Uxbridge & South Ruislip we are finding that some voters are still bringing up ULEZ, but not as often as in the by-election. I suspect that will be the case in other anti-ULEZ outer London seats too and maybe even those only just outside Greater London such as Spelthorne where it remains a bit of an issue in some areas.

[No Offence Alan]

Jun 13, 2024 10:25:31 GMT batman said:

The answer to your question may partly be that those paying the ULEZ charge are not necessarily electors in Greater London but may be coming from outside into London for business or personal-related purposes.

In Uxbridge & South Ruislip we are finding that some voters are still bringing up ULEZ, but not as often as in the by-election. I suspect that will be the case in other anti-ULEZ outer London seats too and maybe even those only just outside Greater London such as Spelthorne where it remains a bit of an issue in some areas.

Are all LEZs equivalent?
I was on holiday with my sister last week and she was concerned when driving in the new Dundee LEZ (started May 31).
Her car is fine in the LEZs of Bath and Bristol.

[right]

Jun 13, 2024 11:54:06 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Jun 13, 2024 10:25:31 GMT batman said:

The answer to your question may partly be that those paying the ULEZ charge are not necessarily electors in Greater London but may be coming from outside into London for business or personal-related purposes.

In Uxbridge & South Ruislip we are finding that some voters are still bringing up ULEZ, but not as often as in the by-election. I suspect that will be the case in other anti-ULEZ outer London seats too and maybe even those only just outside Greater London such as Spelthorne where it remains a bit of an issue in some areas.

Are all LEZs equivalent?
I was on holiday with my sister last week and she was concerned when driving in the new Dundee LEZ (started May 31).
Her car is fine in the LEZs of Bath and Bristol.

Isn't it derived from an EU scheme?  In which case I'd expect the permitted emissions to be universal.

[Deleted]

Jun 13, 2024 10:25:31 GMT batman said:

The answer to your question may partly be that those paying the ULEZ charge are not necessarily electors in Greater London but may be coming from outside into London for business or personal-related purposes.

In Uxbridge & South Ruislip we are finding that some voters are still bringing up ULEZ, but not as often as in the by-election. I suspect that will be the case in other anti-ULEZ outer London seats too and maybe even those only just outside Greater London such as Spelthorne where it remains a bit of an issue in some areas.

I suppose in Romford - TfL giveth (Elizabeth Line) and taketh (ULEZ), so the former may compensate for the latter. Not everyone here is a self-employed bricky or plumber driving a white van - far from it.  You can easily argue that ULEZ's income helps pay for the new infrastructure.

[Ports]

Jun 14, 2024 4:46:56 GMT @weld said:

You can easily argue that ULEZ's income helps pay for the new infrastructure.

I have always been surprised that Sadiq Khan didn't really make this argument himself. He could've easily said 'we had to bring this charge forward due to the government's unwillingness to properly fund TfL'.

[Deleted]

Jun 14, 2024 6:48:12 GMT Ports said:

Jun 14, 2024 4:46:56 GMT @weld said:

You can easily argue that ULEZ's income helps pay for the new infrastructure.

I have always been surprised that Sadiq Khan didn't really make this argument himself. He could've easily said 'we had to bring this charge forward due to the government's unwillingness to properly fund TfL'.

Yes it's a bit like this: if people want frozen fares that's one thing, but don't expect revamped Bakerloo line trains anytime soon.

[LDCaerdydd]

Rosindale hangs on by 1,463 votes(3.3%) down from 17,893 in 2019 largely attributed to Reform winning almost 9,624 votes (21.8%).

Labour only added 1,200 votes to their 2019 total.