stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:57:27 GMT
Richmond Park
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 2, 2024 18:19:24 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | | Con | Lab | Lib | CW | | | | | | | | 1945 | 53.7% | 36.6% | 8.5% | 1.3% | | 1950 | 58.6% | 31.8% | 9.6% | | | 1951 | 60.6% | 32.3% | 7.1% | | | 1955 | 59.9% | 31.9% | 8.2% | | | 1959 | 59.6% | 28.9% | 11.5% | | | 1964 | 51.2% | 31.6% | 17.2% | | | 1966 | 50.1% | 35.1% | 14.8% | |
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | | | 1970 | 52.8% | 31.8% | 15.4% | | | 1974 | 45.7% | 19.9% | 33.4% | 1.0% | | 1974 | 44.8% | 23.1% | 30.2% | 1.9% | | 1979 | 49.5% | 14.7% | 34.7% | 0.5% | | 1983 | 47.7% | 8.3% | 43.7% | | | 1987 | 49.2% | 8.5% | 41.1% | | | 1992 | 50.7% | 8.6% | 39.1% | |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Grn | Ref/UKIP/
BXP | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 38.8% | 12.5% | 45.2% | | 2.6% | | 2001 | 36.9% | 11.4% | 48.3% | 2.5% | | | 2005 | 39.2% | 9.7% | 46.7% | 2.7% | 0.9% | | 2010 | 49.5% | 4.9% | 43.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | | 2015 | 58.3% | 12.0% | 19.6% | 6.1% | 4.0% | | 2017 | 44.9% | 8.8% | 45.6% | | 0.7% | | 2019 | 40.6% | 5.3% | 53.7% | | |
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edgbaston
Labour
Posts: 4,362
Member is Online
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Post by edgbaston on May 2, 2024 18:39:51 GMT
When you have the historical and future context alongside it, that 2015 Lib Dem result looks especially shockingly bad. I wonder if not for Brexit it might have been the start of a stagnation in the area.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on May 2, 2024 18:44:38 GMT
When you have the historical and future context alongside it, that 2015 Lib Dem result looks especially shockingly bad. I wonder if not for Brexit it might have been the start of a stagnation in the area. Zac Goldsmith seemed like a popular and good fit for the seat, but Brexit and his botched mayoral campaign seemed to see that decline rapidly |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on May 2, 2024 22:42:15 GMT
When you have the historical and future context alongside it, that 2015 Lib Dem result looks especially shockingly bad. I wonder if not for Brexit it might have been the start of a stagnation in the area. It looks to me like the electorate’s verdict on the coalition. There would be little support from the Tories who would continue to vote Conservative. By contrast the Labour and other party supporters who voted Lib Dem on an anti-Tory tactical vote would not have been pleased. That’s the problem with your party forming a coalition that will piss-off many of those who voted for you may have unfortunate electoral consequences. |
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Post by batman on May 3, 2024 8:14:43 GMT
It was, plus the Lib Dem candidate was unusually weak. Quite a lot of people I know switched from Lib Dem to Labour for the first time in years (in parliamentary elections at least) in that election, even though our candidate was not seen as a strong one at the time - actually he's a really good bloke & I know him well. Of course that all unwound again in the by-election which was a masterpiece of stupidity by Goldsmith - how to ruin a strong electoral position in one fell swoop.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on May 3, 2024 8:36:50 GMT
It was, plus the Lib Dem candidate was unusually weak. Quite a lot of people I know switched from Lib Dem to Labour for the first time in years (in parliamentary elections at least) in that election, even though our candidate was not seen as a strong one at the time - actually he's a really good bloke & I know him well. Of course that all unwound again in the by-election which was a masterpiece of stupidity by Goldsmith - how to ruin a strong electoral position in one fell swoop. Do you think that he could have remained in place if not for the by-election despite the Brexit and mayoral campaign factors? I know he won it back a few months later at the general election but it was such a narrow margin it made it a clear opportunity for the Lib Dems to come back again |
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Post by batman on May 3, 2024 17:27:43 GMT
I am convinced that if he hadn't given the Lib Dems an in as he did he would still be my MP today. They were dead in the water until the by-election came along.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on May 3, 2024 19:07:25 GMT
Do you really think he'd have won in 2019?
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Post by batman on May 3, 2024 20:20:04 GMT
In all likelihood, yes. Without the by-election, the Labour vote would probably have risen quite a bit further in 2017 and the LDs would have struggled to squeeze it to the extent required to win. Indeed, it's not impossible that Labour could have actually been second in 2017 but of course the by-election changed the entire dynamic of electoral politics in the constituency.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on May 3, 2024 20:40:44 GMT
In all likelihood, yes. Without the by-election, the Labour vote would probably have risen quite a bit further in 2017 and the LDs would have struggled to squeeze it to the extent required to win. Indeed, it's not impossible that Labour could have actually been second in 2017 but of course the by-election changed the entire dynamic of electoral politics in the constituency. So perhaps a Finchley and Golders Green style result |
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on May 3, 2024 21:30:06 GMT
I would've guessed independently of this thread an Esher and Walton style result (though maybe not exactly that margin) - nothing to report in 2017 but significant LD gain in 2019 owing to the Remain vote of the seat. I'm happy to be corrected though.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2024 7:49:28 GMT
Given the history of Lib Dems winning here and Labour's historic weakness, I think the LDs would've won it back by 2019. I suspect they would have still got the council back in 2018 regardless of the by-election.
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Post by batman on May 4, 2024 8:23:29 GMT
possibly. It's all speculation in the end
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Post by connor on May 22, 2024 20:42:24 GMT
Liberal Democrat Hold
Sarah Olney MP (Liberal Democrat)
Don't think Labour can make up the numbers nor will people feel enthusastic to lend their vote to Conservative. I think the Lib Dems will hold on purely on the basis of being the best out of the bunch.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Jun 8, 2024 20:28:34 GMT
Laura CORYTON - Labour Party Chris FRENCH - The Mitre TW9 (?) Sara GEZDARI - Conservative Party Richard HARRISON - Social Democratic Party Michael HEARN - Reform UK
Sarah OLNEY - Liberal Democrats Chas WARLOW - Green Party
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 16, 2024 20:15:39 GMT
Laura CORYTON - Labour Party Chris FRENCH - The Mitre TW9 (?) Sara GEZDARI - Conservative Party Richard HARRISON - Social Democratic Party Michael HEARN - Reform UK
Sarah OLNEY - Liberal Democrats Chas WARLOW - Green Party The Mitre is a local pub . The landlord is running to get free publicity for his business. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 16, 2024 20:31:51 GMT
Laura CORYTON - Labour Party Chris FRENCH - The Mitre TW9 (?) Sara GEZDARI - Conservative Party Richard HARRISON - Social Democratic Party Michael HEARN - Reform UK
Sarah OLNEY - Liberal Democrats Chas WARLOW - Green Party The Mitre is a local pub . The landlord is running to get free publicity for his business. Though there are indications it may have been planned well in advance: "Date registered: 23/05/2023". |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Jun 16, 2024 20:45:42 GMT
Laura CORYTON - Labour Party Chris FRENCH - The Mitre TW9 (?) Sara GEZDARI - Conservative Party Richard HARRISON - Social Democratic Party Michael HEARN - Reform UK
Sarah OLNEY - Liberal Democrats Chas WARLOW - Green Party The Mitre is a local pub . The landlord is running to get free publicity for his business. We mitre guessed that? |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 16, 2024 20:59:45 GMT
Oh. Here was I thinking that one of the reasons for tightening up the law on registration of,party names was to avoid it being used for commercial advertising. Eric Forth MP commented to me that it was an abuse of process when we spotted some leaflets for the “Daily & Sunday Sport Party”. (That was when we were leafleting in a block of flats in Kensington & Chelsea in 1999). ((When I say “we” I mean both of us individually, not together collectively)) |
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