Canadian elections

[maxque]

May 30, 2023 12:27:40 GMT The Bishop said:

Looks like a 49-38 final score - though apparently a fairly small swing to the NDP might have meant a "wrong winner" result.

Yes. Popular vote was 52.6 to 44.0, but a 2.5% universal swing (so UCP 50.1 - NDP 46.5) would have meant an NDP victory. This situation should worsen when they redistribute seats, as Edmonton and Calgary are currently under-represented compared to rural areas.

[Georg Ebner]

May 30, 2023 12:27:40 GMT The Bishop said:

Looks like a 49-38 final score - though apparently a fairly small swing to the NDP might have meant a "wrong winner" result.

Just summa summarum ~2.600 votes more (in 5 CalgarySeats & 1 in LeithBridge) and the seatDistribution UCP:NDP would have been 43:44, while the voteShare being still 52.4%:44.2%!

[Georg Ebner]

CBC was right in proclaiming their pollster Mrs.Brown to be the best one for Alberta, cf.
- the deViations per polled party:

- the final poll of each company:

[Georg Ebner]

Several partly interesting federal®ional byElec.s have taken place recently:

- Oxford (ON, SW): Cons.-4%, NDP -8%, Lib. +16% (!). ToryHold, but quite encouraging for a supposedly unpopular federal government.
- NotreDameDeGrace-... (QC, MontrealIsland): Lib. -3%, NDP -5%, Cons. -1%, Greens +9%.
- Portage (Manitoba): Cons. +12%, Bernier (PPC) -4%, NDP -6%.
- Winnipeg SC (Man.): Lib. +10%, Cons. -4%, NDP -6%.

2 regional ones in BC:

- Vancouver-MountPleasant: NDP +1%, United (exLib.) +1%, Greens -9%, Cons. +5%.
- Langford-...: United 9% (-6%), Cons. *20%. Could be an outLier, but the Lib.s renaming themselves into United could make MidRight more dis-united than before...

[Georg Ebner]

Today Toronto elects its new mayor.
I can't pretend to know the scenery well, but when hearing of Tory stepping down my immediate thought was: Perhaps Mrs. Chow - the widow of NDP's Jack Layton - will run and succeed this time? And indeed she does and has allWays been highly favoured, not least due to nameRecognition.
1 pollster - MainStreet - has claimed centre-left Mrs. Bailao to be not far behind, but this seems to be wishful thinking on their part.

Nice maps:

cinycmaps.com/index.php/international/t-o-mayor-2000s

[Georg Ebner]

Astonishingly close race - first Bailao was even ahead, finally downTown-areas came in and Chow won it.

Pollster MainStreet being the hero of the hour.

[Georg Ebner]

Toronto, pollsterPerformance, grouped
- chronologically:

- best (=lowest deViation per polled party):

- last one of each company:

[Georg Ebner]

After a byElection in NovaScotia - which was won by the governing PCs with the defending Lib.s ending embarassingly behind NDP - 3 take place toDay in Saskatchewan, 1 in rural territory, but 2 are in Regina-N(W): and NDP's targetNr.s 5 & 7:

So both must be gained, otherWise NDP would at present be clearly not in game for next year's election. Polling for the whole province sees the Sask.P. still comfortably ahead (but comparatively low for Canada's now most conservative province).

[Georg Ebner]

Myself i will go to bed now. But Eric Grenier will discuss live on YouTube the byElections. CBC seemingly not.

[matureleft]

NDP clear wins projected by CBC in their two targets based on the initial count.
results.elections.sk.ca/

[John Chanin]

Aug 11, 2023 3:24:40 GMT matureleft said:

NDP clear wins projected by CBC in their two targets based on the initial count.
results.elections.sk.ca/

I rather like the Buffalo Party.  Are they for them, or against them, or is this just a Canadian metaphor?

[Georg Ebner]

Regina-WalshAcres delivered a swing of 11.4%, what would mean for NDP - with a province-wide uniform swing - 26 seats; Reg.-CoronationPark had 15.0%, what would result in 30/61...
Perhaps even more embarrassing for Sask.P. are those 23% in the rural seat for a new anti-vaccination&imMigration-splinter.

[maxque]

Aug 11, 2023 5:46:02 GMT John Chanin said:

Aug 11, 2023 3:24:40 GMT matureleft said:

NDP clear wins projected by CBC in their two targets based on the initial count.
results.elections.sk.ca/

I rather like the Buffalo Party.  Are they for them, or against them, or is this just a Canadian metaphor?

They are Wexit proponents, i.e. Western Canada independentists, i.e. oil fetishists.

[johnloony]

Aug 13, 2023 0:37:01 GMT maxque said:

Aug 11, 2023 5:46:02 GMT John Chanin said:

I rather like the Buffalo Party.  Are they for them, or against them, or is this just a Canadian metaphor?

They are Wexit proponents, i.e. Western Canada independentists, i.e. oil fetishists.

Slightly disappointing that it's not a breakaway faction of the Rhinoceros Party.

[Georg Ebner]

Manitoba will tomorrow deselect the PC, which has been in power for 7 years (after 16 of NDP). Recently emerged an opinionPoll of an unknown company having the PC overAll narrowly ahead, but even they have them trailing in crucial Winnipeg (32/57 seats).
Result 2019:

TargetLists:
- PC-NDP:

- PC-Lib.:

- NDP-Lib.:

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

NDP doing better than expected. First NDP hold here.

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

NDP will win this election.
PC leader is under severe threat in their riding.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 4, 2023 1:35:53 GMT Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells said:

NDP doing better than expected. First NDP hold here.

PC doing better than expected (presently, i.e. 1/3 counted): By seats awful as expected, but by vote-% they are only 2% behind.


 

[Georg Ebner]

Interesting map of the Winnipeg-precincts flipping in 2016, when PC replaced NDP:

Especially the south is well-known for being a bellWeather. But it's obviously also other parts of the city.

[Georg Ebner]

Present situation in crucial Winnipeg:

The expected blowOut for PC, while achieving strong results in the rural rest (they are there at ~56%!).