stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:53:26 GMT
Kingston and Surbiton
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 1, 2024 1:14:22 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | | Con | Lab | Lib |
| | | | | | | | 1945 | 55.1% | 44.9% | | | | 1950 | 59.2% | 34.3% | 6.5% | | | 1951 | 63.4% | 36.6% | | | | 1955 | 63.7% | 36.3% | | | | 1959 | 65.7% | 34.3% | | | | 1964 | 57.1% | 37.6% | 5.3% | | | 1966 | 54.9% | 40.5% | 4.6% | |
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD | Grn | Ind Con | | | | | | | | | 1970 | 52.8% | 33.0% | 11.0% | | 3.2% | | 1974 | 45.4% | 27.2% | 27.4% | | | | 1974 | 45.4% | 30.4% | 24.2% | | | | 1979 | 55.8% | 28.2% | 16.0% | | | | 1983 | 52.9% | 14.8% | 30.7% | 1.0% | | | 1987 | 54.5% | 14.4% | 30.1% | 0.8% | | | 1992 | 51.7% | 19.1% | 27.9% | | |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/
BXP | Grn | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 35.2% | 22.3% | 38.8% | 2.3% | | | 2001 | 28.5% | 9.5% | 59.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | | 2005 | 32.4% | 13.1% | 51.4% | 1.4% | | | 2010 | 36.4% | 9.2% | 50.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | | 2015 | 39.4% | 14.8% | 34.1% | 6.9% | 4.3% | | 2017 | 37.2% | 14.6% | 45.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | | 2019 | 33.0% | 10.4% | 52.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365
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Post by stb12 on May 1, 2024 7:21:32 GMT
Could the Tories have held onto a 2015 gain like this for longer if Brexit hadn’t happened or was it always likely that the Lib Dems would come back quickly regardless?
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Post by willpower3 on May 1, 2024 8:04:29 GMT
Could the Tories have held onto a 2015 gain like this for longer if Brexit hadn’t happened or was it always likely that the Lib Dems would come back quickly regardless? Tactical voting from the left with memories of the Coalition fading would have probably bagged this seat for the Lib Dems in a 2019/20 election after a four or five year Parliament. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 1, 2024 8:49:35 GMT
I don't know - I think 2015 presented a real opportunity to kill off the Lib Dems (not entirely but to consign them for a generation to a mere handful of seats). Some of those that survived 2015 would have followed later (as they did - Norfolk North, Southport, Carshalton etc). I don't blame Brexit but that stupid bitch for calling a totally unnecessary election which aside from boosting Corbyn provided a quick way back for the likes of Davey, Swinson and Cable. Another two or three years out of parliament and they would have probably moved onto other things or retired
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on May 1, 2024 10:34:24 GMT
Could the Tories have held onto a 2015 gain like this for longer if Brexit hadn’t happened or was it always likely that the Lib Dems would come back quickly regardless? Tactical voting from the left with memories of the Coalition fading would have probably bagged this seat for the Lib Dems in a 2019/20 election after a four or five year Parliament. Not least considering only a small drop in the Tory vote would be required anyway - whether that manifested itself in the next election after 2015 or a later one. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on May 1, 2024 11:44:21 GMT
Nigel Fisher, MP for Surbiton from 1955 to 1983, was a very liberal Tory and friend of Iain Macleod, and came up against opposition from his own party activists. Harold Wilson referred to them as 'skinheads'. His son Mark became Labour MP for Stoke-on-Trent Central,
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Post by connor on May 22, 2024 20:32:18 GMT
Liberal Democrat Hold
Ed Davey MP (Liberal Democrat)
Say what you think about Ed Davey, but reviving the Liberal Democrats will be a massive achievement for him and reviving the party's fortunes. Not many people thought this would happen, but there you go.
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Post by willpower3 on May 24, 2024 8:14:40 GMT
First time since 2010 that a Lib Dem leader's seat hasn't been under serious threat.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 7, 2024 17:27:19 GMT
Eight Candidates | Ali Abdulla | Workers Party | Lives in Chessington | | Gent A Chinners | Official Monster Raving Loony Party | (address in the Kingston and Surbiton constituency)
| | Debojyoti Das | The Green Party | (address in the Kingston and Surbiton constituency) | Ed Davey
| Liberal Democrats | (address in the Kingston and Surbiton constituency) | | Helen Edward | Conservative Party | (address in the Richmond Park Constituency) | | David Mark Fox | Reform UK | (address in the Richmond Park Constituency) | | Eunice O'Dame | Labour Party | (address in the Streatham and Croydon North constituency) | | Yvonne Tracey | Kingston Independent Residents - Justice for Subpostmasters | Local address in New Malden |
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wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,322
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Post by wallington on Jun 7, 2024 18:10:47 GMT
Eight Candidates | Ali Abdulla | Workers Party | Lives in Chessington | | Gent A Chinners | Official Monster Raving Loony Party | (address in the Kingston and Surbiton constituency)
| | Debojyoti Das | The Green Party | (address in the Kingston and Surbiton constituency) | Ed Davey
| Liberal Democrats | (address in the Kingston and Surbiton constituency) | | Helen Edward | Conservative Party | (address in the Richmond Park Constituency) | | David Mark Fox | Reform UK | (address in the Richmond Park Constituency) | | Eunice O'Dame | Labour Party | (address in the Streatham and Croydon North constituency) | | Yvonne Tracey | Kingston Independent Residents - Justice for Subpostmasters | Local address in New Malden |
Workers Party and Kingston Independents standing, do they have the same election agent lol |
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Post by stodge on Jun 7, 2024 20:22:57 GMT
Was in Surbiton today - a few orange diamonds. Not much sign of anything else.
The Kingston Independents seem to hate the Liberal Democrats with a healthy passion. Yvonne Tracey is a local Councillor who won a by election in November 2022.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 8, 2024 18:04:26 GMT
Eight Candidates | Ali Abdulla | Workers Party | Lives in Chessington | | Gent A Chinners | Official Monster Raving Loony Party | (address in the Kingston and Surbiton constituency)
| | Debojyoti Das | The Green Party | (address in the Kingston and Surbiton constituency) | Ed Davey
| Liberal Democrats | (address in the Kingston and Surbiton constituency) | | Helen Edward | Conservative Party | (address in the Richmond Park Constituency) | | David Mark Fox | Reform UK | (address in the Richmond Park Constituency) | | Eunice O'Dame | Labour Party | (address in the Streatham and Croydon North constituency) | | Yvonne Tracey | Kingston Independent Residents - Justice for Subpostmasters | Local address in New Malden |
Workers Party and Kingston Independents standing, do they have the same election agent lol Not only that but James Giles, Workers Party candidate in Birmingham Hodge Hill & Solihull North, is the seconder of the Kingston Independents candidate here who is standing against the Workers Party. I realise they are related but in any normal party this would be regarded as very odd behaviour. I note the Kingston Independents' description in the context of this being Ed Davey's constituency. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 8, 2024 18:59:46 GMT
The Kingston Independents candidate is James Giles's grandmother.
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Adam
Non-Aligned
Posts: 82
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Post by Adam on Jun 20, 2024 13:54:45 GMT
Just seen a Labour leaflet for their candidate here. It is headed “Labour Can Win Here” with a bar chart to prove it. Apparently, surprising as it might seem, someone in the Labour Party has a sense of humour. The only trouble is they can’t even win a seat on the local council
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 20, 2024 14:05:56 GMT
Just seen a Labour leaflet for their candidate here. It is headed “Labour Can Win Here” with a bar chart to prove it. Apparently, surprising as it might seem, someone in the Labour Party has a sense of humour. The only trouble is they can’t even win a seat on the local council What was the source for the bar chart? Mayrol vote? |
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Adam
Non-Aligned
Posts: 82
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Post by Adam on Jun 20, 2024 14:12:41 GMT
It gives the source as Survation 2024. The bar chart has the LibDems on 37%, Labour on 31% and the Tories on 21% and “1/3 of Lib Dem voters identify as Labour supporters.” An arrow shows what would happen if these switched to voting Labour.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 20, 2024 14:42:12 GMT
Just seen a Labour leaflet for their candidate here. It is headed “Labour Can Win Here” with a bar chart to prove it. Apparently, surprising as it might seem, someone in the Labour Party has a sense of humour. The only trouble is they can’t even win a seat on the local council What was the source for the bar chart? Mayrol vote? To be fair, Labour has a realistic chance of winning Croydon South constituency in the general election, even though no Labour councillor has ever been elected by any of the wards comprising the new version of Croydon South. The same could happen in various other places. |
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Post by jakegb on Jun 20, 2024 18:42:53 GMT
Like Croydon South, long-term demographic change will push this closer to the Labour column (though in the medium term it is still safely Lib Dem)
The Lib Dems - like the Tories - are not immune to demographic change. In the same way that the Tories are virtually extinct in metropolitan, young, diverse big city centres - so are the Lib Dems. In a way that was not the case a decade ago in places like Manchester, Bristol and Cardiff.
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steve
Non-Aligned
Posts: 547
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Post by steve on Jun 20, 2024 23:47:52 GMT
Like Croydon South, long-term demographic change will push this closer to the Labour column (though in the medium term it is still safely Lib Dem) The Lib Dems - like the Tories - are not immune to demographic change. In the same way that the Tories are virtually extinct in metropolitan, young, diverse big city centres - so are the Lib Dems. In a way that was not the case a decade ago in places like Manchester, Bristol and Cardiff. Lib Dem support largely grew in areas like that when Labour was last in government and there is no reason why the Lib Dems and/or Greens can't make advances in such areas again once disillusionment sets in with the new administration, particularly as many of their policy positions should appeal to this demographic not least on Europe. |
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