Finchley and Golders Green

[stb12]

Finchley and Golders Green

[Pete Whitehead]

Link to profile

Sept 10, 2023 10:27:00 GMT Robert Waller said:

2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)

Age 65+ 15.2% 441/575
Owner occupied 50.9% 494/575
Private rented 38.4% 12/575
Social rented 10.8% 487/575
White 60.5 % 506/575
Black 5.9% 122/575
Asian 17.2% 74/575
Other 11.2% 7/575
Religion Jewish 20.8% 1/575
Managerial & professional 42.8% 73/575
Routine & Semi-routine 12.8% 556/575
Degree level 53.0% 28/575
No qualifications 14.4% 448/575
Students 8.5% 140/575

General Election 2019: Finchley and Golders Green

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Mike Freer 24,162 43.8 −3.2
Liberal Democrats Luciana Berger 17,600 31.9 +25.3
Labour Ross Houston 13,347 24.2 −19.6

C Majority 6,562 11.9 +8.7

Turnout 55,109 71.0 −0.4

Registered electors 77,573

Conservative hold

Swing 14.2 C to LD
Swing 8.4 Lab to C
Swing 22.4 Lab to LD
(yer pays yer money and yer takes yer pick!)



Boundary Changes
Finchley and Golders Green consists of
99.5% of Finchley and Golders Green
0.7% of Chipping Barnet

Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_139_Finchley%20and%20Golders%20Green_Portrait.pdf


2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)

Con	24267	43.8%
LD	17638	31.8%
Lab	13500	24.4%
Green	7	0.0%
Majority	6629	12.0%

Mike Freer is standing down

Candidates:

Conservative - TBA
Labour - Sarah Sackman
Lib Dem - Sarah Hoyle
Reform UK - Timothy McGeever
Green - Steve Parsons

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work

	Con	Lab	Lib	Com
1945	45.5%	37.8%	16.7%
1950	51.7%	32.3%	16.0%
1951	54.2%	34.2%	11.6%
1955	56.8%	33.6%	9.6%
1959	53.1%	24.9%	22.0%
1964	45.7%	25.4%	28.8%
1966	44.7%	30.1%	25.2%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP
1970	51.8%	31.9%	16.3%
1974	43.2%	27.8%	29.0%
1974	44.6%	32.4%	21.7%	1.3%
1979	51.9%	31.1%	15.0%	1.1%
1983	49.5%	23.8%	25.7%
1987	54.2%	26.8%	18.7%
1992	54.6%	29.2%	14.7%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP/ BXP	Green
1997	40.6%	44.5%	12.0%	1.7%	1.1%
2001	38.9%	44.3%	12.9%	0.8%	3.1%
2005	40.1%	38.3%	17.7%	1.1%	2.6%
2010	45.9%	33.7%	17.1%	1.7%	1.6%
2015	50.7%	39.8%	3.3%	3.4%	2.7%
2017	46.8%	44.0%	6.6%	0.9%	1.8%
2019	43.8%	24.4%	31.8%

[batman]

Perhaps you could remind me Pete why this seat was notionally Conservative in 2005 but in its form at that time was held by Rudi Vis?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Probably because the pre-2010 version of the seat included Woodhouse ward, which is a pretty solidly Labour lead area.

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 28, 2024 23:02:50 GMT batman said:

Perhaps you could remind me Pete why this seat was notionally Conservative in 2005 but in its form at that time was held by Rudi Vis?

It was the removal of the southern part of the old Friern Barnet UD in the form that part of the then new (now former) Coppets ward (previously part of Woodhouse) to Chipping Barnet. There was also a small area gained from Hendon around Holders Hill which would have benefited the Conservatives, but wouldn't have been decisive on its own.

[greatkingrat]

Alex DEANE (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Brendan DONNELLY (Rejoin EU)
Sarah HOYLE (Liberal Democrats)
Katharine MURPHY (Party of Women)
Steve PARSONS (Green Party Candidate)
Bepi PEZZULLI (Reform UK)
Sarah SACKMAN (Labour Party)
Michael SHAD (Independent)

www.barnet.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-06/Statement%20of%20Persons%20Nominated%20%E2%80%93%20Finchley%20and%20Golders%20Green%20Constituency_0.pdf

[Devil Wincarnate]

THAT Brendan Donnelly presumably?

[greenhert]

Jun 7, 2024 19:04:01 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

THAT Brendan Donnelly presumably?

Yes the former MEP. Another former MEP, John Stevens, is also standing on Rejoin EU's behalf this election.

[greatkingrat]

Yes, he stood for Rejoin EU in the Assembly list as well.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 7, 2024 19:15:57 GMT greenhert said:

Jun 7, 2024 19:04:01 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

THAT Brendan Donnelly presumably?

Yes the former MEP. Another former MEP, John Stevens, is also standing on Rejoin EU's behalf this election.

Those two have an incredible ability to turn up like bad pennies.

[right]

Uh oh, someone talked about NIMBYs

www.politicshome.com/news/article/london-tory-candidate-says-nimbys-must-be-defeated

[beesknee5]

Exit poll says lib dem.

Really?

[mattb]

No

[beesknee5]

My thoughts as well.

Lib dem had some support in Childs hill but never enough to come close to winning the seat.

[Deleted]

A well-deserved win for Labour's Sarah Sackman here.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Jul 5, 2024 3:22:42 GMT @weld said:

A well-deserved win for Labour's Sarah Sackman here.

The new Solicitor General

[Deleted]

Indeed and she won't be Sacked anytime soon. The first Jewish MP for Barnet and probably well-overdue. Mike Katz should've won his seat in 2017, but it wasn't to be. Well done Barnet Labour.

[rcronald]

Jul 10, 2024 7:52:22 GMT @weld said:

Indeed and she won't be Sacked anytime soon. The first Jewish MP for Barnet and probably well-overdue. Mike Katz should've won his seat in 2017, but it wasn't to be. Well done Barnet Labour.

The Finchley part of the constituency is private-renter heavy, so Labour could be in trouble if the housing crisis gets worse.

[Deleted]

Jul 10, 2024 8:48:35 GMT rcronald said:

Jul 10, 2024 7:52:22 GMT @weld said:

Indeed and she won't be Sacked anytime soon. The first Jewish MP for Barnet and probably well-overdue. Mike Katz should've won his seat in 2017, but it wasn't to be. Well done Barnet Labour.

The Finchley part of the constituency is private-renter heavy, so Labour could be in trouble if the housing crisis gets worse.

That is correct. Identity politics may have helped the Labourite around Golders Green (eating into Tory leads there and in Garden Suburb) but East Finchley is quite vulnerable to the Greens I think (as we've seen in neighbouring Highgate in Haringey the Green got 23% in the 2022 locals. Labour could easily lose votes in East Finchley which is the crappiest part of the seat and could be anywhere. It's really a come down from Muswell Hill, Highgate and Garden Suburb. Sorry, not sorry.