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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:45:46 GMT
Finchley and Golders Green
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 18, 2024 19:10:47 GMT
Link to profile2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales) Age 65+ 15.2% 441/575 Owner occupied 50.9% 494/575 Private rented 38.4% 12/575 Social rented 10.8% 487/575 White 60.5 % 506/575 Black 5.9% 122/575 Asian 17.2% 74/575 Other 11.2% 7/575 Religion Jewish 20.8% 1/575 Managerial & professional 42.8% 73/575 Routine & Semi-routine 12.8% 556/575 Degree level 53.0% 28/575 No qualifications 14.4% 448/575 Students 8.5% 140/575 General Election 2019: Finchley and Golders GreenParty Candidate Votes % ±% Conservative Mike Freer 24,162 43.8 −3.2Liberal Democrats Luciana Berger 17,600 31.9 +25.3 Labour Ross Houston 13,347 24.2 −19.6 C Majority 6,562 11.9 +8.7Turnout 55,109 71.0 −0.4 Registered electors 77,573 Conservative hold Swing 14.2 C to LD Swing 8.4 Lab to C Swing 22.4 Lab to LD (yer pays yer money and yer takes yer pick!) Boundary ChangesFinchley and Golders Green consists of 99.5% of Finchley and Golders Green 0.7% of Chipping Barnet Mapboundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_139_Finchley%20and%20Golders%20Green_Portrait.pdf2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher) Con | 24267 | 43.8% | LD | 17638 | 31.8% | Lab | 13500 | 24.4% | Green | 7 | 0.0% | | | |
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| | | | Majority | 6629 | 12.0% |
Mike Freer is standing down Candidates: Conservative - TBA Labour - Sarah SackmanLib Dem - Sarah HoyleReform UK - Timothy McGeever Green - Steve Parsons
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 28, 2024 23:00:17 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | Con | Lab | Lib | Com | | | | | | 1945 | 45.5% | 37.8% | 16.7% | | 1950 | 51.7% | 32.3% | 16.0% | | 1951 | 54.2% | 34.2% | 11.6% | | 1955 | 56.8% | 33.6% | 9.6% | | 1959 | 53.1% | 24.9% | 22.0% | | 1964 | 45.7% | 25.4% | 28.8% | | 1966 | 44.7% | 30.1% | 25.2% | |
| Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | 1970 | 51.8% | 31.9% | 16.3% | | 1974 | 43.2% | 27.8% | 29.0% | | 1974 | 44.6% | 32.4% | 21.7% | 1.3% | 1979 | 51.9% | 31.1% | 15.0% | 1.1% | 1983 | 49.5% | 23.8% | 25.7% | | 1987 | 54.2% | 26.8% | 18.7% | | 1992 | 54.6% | 29.2% | 14.7% | |
| Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/ BXP | Green | | | | | | | 1997 | 40.6% | 44.5% | 12.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2001 | 38.9% | 44.3% | 12.9% | 0.8% | 3.1% | 2005 | 40.1% | 38.3% | 17.7% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2010 | 45.9% | 33.7% | 17.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2015 | 50.7% | 39.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2017 | 46.8% | 44.0% | 6.6% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2019 | 43.8% | 24.4% | 31.8% | | |
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Post by batman on Apr 28, 2024 23:02:50 GMT
Perhaps you could remind me Pete why this seat was notionally Conservative in 2005 but in its form at that time was held by Rudi Vis?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 28, 2024 23:09:40 GMT
Probably because the pre-2010 version of the seat included Woodhouse ward, which is a pretty solidly Labour lead area.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 28, 2024 23:10:48 GMT
Perhaps you could remind me Pete why this seat was notionally Conservative in 2005 but in its form at that time was held by Rudi Vis? It was the removal of the southern part of the old Friern Barnet UD in the form that part of the then new (now former) Coppets ward (previously part of Woodhouse) to Chipping Barnet. There was also a small area gained from Hendon around Holders Hill which would have benefited the Conservatives, but wouldn't have been decisive on its own.
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 7, 2024 18:56:17 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 7, 2024 19:04:01 GMT
THAT Brendan Donnelly presumably?
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Post by greenhert on Jun 7, 2024 19:15:57 GMT
THAT Brendan Donnelly presumably? Yes the former MEP. Another former MEP, John Stevens, is also standing on Rejoin EU's behalf this election.
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 7, 2024 19:16:01 GMT
Yes, he stood for Rejoin EU in the Assembly list as well.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 7, 2024 19:20:38 GMT
THAT Brendan Donnelly presumably? Yes the former MEP. Another former MEP, John Stevens, is also standing on Rejoin EU's behalf this election. Those two have an incredible ability to turn up like bad pennies.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,338
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Post by right on Jun 26, 2024 15:44:28 GMT
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Post by beesknee5 on Jul 4, 2024 21:46:55 GMT
Exit poll says lib dem.
Really?
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Post by mattb on Jul 4, 2024 21:47:39 GMT
No
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Post by beesknee5 on Jul 4, 2024 21:52:46 GMT
My thoughts as well.
Lib dem had some support in Childs hill but never enough to come close to winning the seat.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 3:22:42 GMT
A well-deserved win for Labour's Sarah Sackman here.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 10, 2024 7:09:37 GMT
A well-deserved win for Labour's Sarah Sackman here. The new Solicitor General
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2024 7:52:22 GMT
Indeed and she won't be Sacked anytime soon. The first Jewish MP for Barnet and probably well-overdue. Mike Katz should've won his seat in 2017, but it wasn't to be. Well done Barnet Labour.
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Post by rcronald on Jul 10, 2024 8:48:35 GMT
Indeed and she won't be Sacked anytime soon. The first Jewish MP for Barnet and probably well-overdue. Mike Katz should've won his seat in 2017, but it wasn't to be. Well done Barnet Labour. The Finchley part of the constituency is private-renter heavy, so Labour could be in trouble if the housing crisis gets worse.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2024 9:36:28 GMT
Indeed and she won't be Sacked anytime soon. The first Jewish MP for Barnet and probably well-overdue. Mike Katz should've won his seat in 2017, but it wasn't to be. Well done Barnet Labour. The Finchley part of the constituency is private-renter heavy, so Labour could be in trouble if the housing crisis gets worse. That is correct. Identity politics may have helped the Labourite around Golders Green (eating into Tory leads there and in Garden Suburb) but East Finchley is quite vulnerable to the Greens I think (as we've seen in neighbouring Highgate in Haringey the Green got 23% in the 2022 locals. Labour could easily lose votes in East Finchley which is the crappiest part of the seat and could be anywhere. It's really a come down from Muswell Hill, Highgate and Garden Suburb. Sorry, not sorry.
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