Croydon South

[stb12]

Croydon South

[johnloony]

Chris Philp (Conservative)
Ben Taylor (Labour)
Elaine Garrod (Green)
Lucian Fernando (Reform)

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work

	Con	Lab	Lib
1945	57.7%	30.0%	12.3%
1950	63.3%	25.0%	11.7%
1951	73.4%	26.6%
1955	74.3%	25.7%
1959	66.8%	20.4%	12.8%
1964	60.1%	18.2%	21.7%
1966	57.3%	18.9%	23.8%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD
1970	65.2%	19.0%	15.7%
1974	58.9%	14.9%	26.2%
1974	58.0%	16.9%	25.1%
1979	65.2%	13.9%	20.0%
1983	65.6%	8.5%	25.9%
1987	64.0%	10.2%	24.0%
1992	63.3%	13.5%	22.8%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP/ BXP	Green
1997	48.7%	23.4%	21.7%	4.8%
2001	49.8%	28.5%	19.0%	2.1%
2005	52.1%	22.4%	21.8%	2.2%
2010	51.1%	19.0%	23.3%	4.5%	1.7%
2015	55.4%	24.2%	6.1%	10.1%	3.8%
2017	55.2%	34.9%	6.0%	1.8%	1.8%
2019	54.5%	28.1%	13.5%	0.7%	2.9%

[johnloony]

Apr 28, 2024 21:08:38 GMT swingometer said:

Sir William Clark MP

I met him when he visited the office I was working in in 1987

[wallington]

CROYDON SOUTH:
REF UK - Bob Bromley
GRN - Elaine Garrod
LIB DEM - Richard Howard
WPB - Kulsum Hussain
CONS - Chris Philp
IND - Mark Samuel
LAB - Ben Taylor

[wallington]

Labour have been flooding the constituency with activists. A friend of mine informs me Labour has even been out door knocking in Sanderstead... lol

He tells me they've received 8 Labour leaflets, 2 tory leaflets and 1 Lib Dem leaflet.

I think Philp will hold on though. I still find it rather strange that Labour is even competitive here.

[londonseal80]

I was in the area last week, I saw quite a few Lib Dem and Labour posters. I think the Conservatives may hold on here too (just). The swing in London will lower than most parts of the country I still fully expect them to make gains. This seat will have a low Reform vote for a London and county border seat. Reform will higher vote percentages in Carshalton and Wallington, Epsom and Ewell, Reigate and East Surrey.

[johnloony]

I am being careful not to be specific in my comments (because I have observed the postal votes being processed for the last two weeks) but (regardless of anything I might have seen in that process) I have always been bemused or bewildered by the possibility / suggestion / prediction / projection that Labour might win here, purely because of the fact that no ward in what is now Croydon South has ever elected any Labour councillor. If Labour wins (or even if it is at all close) then there will lots of polling districts, and at least a few wards, which will have voted Labour for the first time ever 9in any election, let alone in a general election).

It is also a fact that I haven't seen any groups of Labour campaigners or canvassers out or about in the constituency at any time in the last 6 weeks whenever I've been leafleting or shopping or whatever. Normally in a general election campaign I would see at least some.

[batman]

I have to say, I'm very surprised to hear that there is still as much expectation as there is of a Labour gain here. John is right that these wards are not generally conducive to Labour although one or two have at least a bit of potential; if the swing is indeed lower than average in London, that ought to put this seat out of Labour's reach on these new boundaries (yes it's lost Selsdon but it's also lost Waddon, the one & only area where one would expect Labour to be ahead of the Conservatives). I still incline strongly towards Con hold here. If the Tories really are in trouble here it's going to be a really terrible night for them, more terrible than even I am expecting.

[Robert Waller]

Maybe we should have a poll on the thread?

On uniform swing (I know ...) there are, I have seen, 212 seats requiring a bigger swing than this one to defeat the Conservatives.

[stb12]

Jul 3, 2024 20:36:08 GMT Robert Waller said:

Maybe we should have a poll on the thread?

On uniform swing (I know ...) there are, I have seen, 212 seats requiring a bigger swing than this one to defeat the Conservatives.

Well with only 24 hours to go may as well!

[johnloony]

Earlier this evening I got a phone canvasser asking if I was going to vote for Chris Philp / reminding me to / asking what time I would vote. He wasn't exactly reading from a script, but he did give me a bit of bullshit about it being so close that the result will be within "tens, not hundreds" between Conservative and Labour.

I think the only other time I got telephone-canvassed during a general election campaign was when I got a phone call from someone on behalf of Andrew Pelling (Independent) in 2010 - i.e. someone who had my contact details but apparently didn't manage to notice that I was the OMRLP candidate in the same election.

[greyfriar]

Jul 3, 2024 23:35:31 GMT johnloony said:

Earlier this evening I got a phone canvasser asking if I was going to vote for Chris Philp / reminding me to / asking what time I would vote. He wasn't exactly reading from a script, but he did give me a bit of bullshit about it being so close that the result will be within "tens, not hundreds" between Conservative and Labour.

I think the only other time I got telephone-canvassed during a general election campaign was when I got a phone call from someone on behalf of Andrew Pelling (Independent) in 2010 - i.e. someone who had my contact details but apparently didn't manage to notice that I was the OMRLP candidate in the same election.

Was Pelling the former MP replaced by the now Lord Barwell, if so how did that come about?

[johnloony]

Jul 3, 2024 23:41:17 GMT greyfriar said:

Jul 3, 2024 23:35:31 GMT johnloony said:

Earlier this evening I got a phone canvasser asking if I was going to vote for Chris Philp / reminding me to / asking what time I would vote. He wasn't exactly reading from a script, but he did give me a bit of bullshit about it being so close that the result will be within "tens, not hundreds" between Conservative and Labour.

I think the only other time I got telephone-canvassed during a general election campaign was when I got a phone call from someone on behalf of Andrew Pelling (Independent) in 2010 - i.e. someone who had my contact details but apparently didn't manage to notice that I was the OMRLP candidate in the same election.

Was Pelling the former MP replaced by the now Lord Barwell, if so how did that come about?

Andrew Pelling was elected Conservative MP for Croydon Central in 2005. He was already London Assembly Member for Croydon & Sutton (2000-2008) and Conservative councillor in Croydon (1982-2006). He seemed to assume that everybody would be happy with him continuing as a councillor beyond 2006. I think, but I'm not sure, that he also had ambitions to become leader of Croydon Council. He fell out with Gavin Barwell and other colleagues because of those issues. In about 2008 he was arrested on suspicion of assault after a domestic incident (no charge was ever brought, and he subsequently became reconciled with his ex-wife). Because of the bad publicity, he was persuaded to announce that he would not stand for re-election for Croydon Central in 2010. He also drifted away from the Conservative Party and became an Independent in about 2008/9. He changed his mind about not standing for re-election, and stood as an Independent in 2010. He and Barwell didn't get on and they often had prolonged arguments on Twitter for a while.

His process of drifting away from the Conservative Party culminated in him joining the Labour Party and being elected as a Labour councillor (2014-2022). One prominent local Labour Party member once told me that he didn't understand why Pelling had ever been allowed to join Labour in the first place. Pelling then fell out with Labour (because of the Labour council messing everything up) and so he stood as an Independent candidate for Mayor of Croydon in the first election for Mayor in 2022. Then he stood as an Independent in a council by-election in 2022, then he joined the Liberal Democrats in 2023 and he is now Lib Dem candidate in Croydon East.

[greyfriar]

Jul 4, 2024 0:42:02 GMT johnloony said:

Jul 3, 2024 23:41:17 GMT greyfriar said:

Was Pelling the former MP replaced by the now Lord Barwell, if so how did that come about?

Andrew Pelling was elected Conservative MP for Croydon Central in 2005. He was already London Assembly Member for Croydon & Sutton (2000-2008) and Conservative councillor in Croydon (1982-2006). He seemed to assume that everybody would be happy with him continuing as a councillor beyond 2006. I think, but I'm not sure, that he also had ambitions to become leader of Croydon Council. He fell out with Gavin Barwell and other colleagues because of those issues. In about 2008 he was arrested on suspicion of assault after a domestic incident (no charge was ever brought, and he subsequently became reconciled with his ex-wife). Because of the bad publicity, he was persuaded to announce that he would not stand for re-election for Croydon Central in 2010. He also drifted away from the Conservative Party and became an Independent in about 2008/9. He changed his mind about not standing for re-election, and stood as an Independent in 2010. He and Barwell didn't get on and they often had prolonged arguments on Twitter for a while.

His process of drifting away from the Conservative Party culminated in him joining the Labour Party and being elected as a Labour councillor (2014-2022). One prominent local Labour Party member once told me that he didn't understand why Pelling had ever been allowed to join Labour in the first place. Pelling then fell out with Labour (because of the Labour council messing everything up) and so he stood as an Independent candidate for Mayor of Croydon in the first election for Mayor in 2022. Then he stood as an Independent in a council by-election in 2022, then he joined the Liberal Democrats in 2023 and he is now Lib Dem candidate in Croydon East.

Very thorough account of quite the political journey!

[londonseal80]

I think the Conservatives will narrowly hold both this and the Reigate seats. But I may be wrong.

Old Bexley and Sidcup, Orpington, Hornchurch and Upminster and Ruislip Northwood are my other predicted Con Holds for London.

Bromley and Biggin Hill, Bexleyheath and Crayford, Epsom and Ewell are my undecideds - the latter could be the closest between all three main parties.

[batman]

there is only one Reigate seat. I'm told anecdotally that Epsom & Ewell is close between Con & LD. But I go for Con holds in all of your 3 undecideds & agree with you about your Con holds. I also go for Con hold in Romford.

[froome]

Jul 4, 2024 6:44:01 GMT londonseal80 said:

I think the Conservatives will narrowly hold both this and the Reigate seats. But I may be wrong.

Old Bexley and Sidcup, Orpington, Hornchurch and Upminster and Ruislip Northwood are my other predicted Con Holds for London.

Bromley and Biggin Hill, Bexleyheath and Crayford, Epsom and Ewell are my undecideds - the latter could be the closest between all three main parties.

I think Croydon South and Reigate as well as your 3 undecideds are all in play, and I wouldn't want to commit to which way any of them may go. Your other 4 Conservative holds all look definite to me.

[batman]

I really don't think Labour (or the LDs) can win Bromley & Biggin Hill. The boundary change clearly helps the Tories there. Bexleyheath & Crayford will be a bit closer.

[rcronald]

I’m predicting a Tory hold, almost entirely based on johnloony and batman’s posts.