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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:36:24 GMT
Carshalton and Wallington
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Post by markgoodair on Apr 26, 2024 10:36:09 GMT
Reform have selected Elizabeth Cooper as their PPC.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 26, 2024 16:44:31 GMT
One for graham to dine out on Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work. The boundaries are fundamentally unchanges since 1974 so the results since then are actual rather than notional | Con | Lab | Lib |
| | | | | | 1945 | 42.0% | 52.2% | 5.8% | | 1950 | 49.1% | 42.2% | 8.6% | | 1951 | 55.8% | 44.2% | | | 1955 | 54.1% | 41.1% | 4.8% | | 1959 | 54.9% | 37.3% | 7.8% | | 1964 | 45.4% | 35.3% | 18.9% | | 1966 | 44.3% | 41.8% | 13.5% | |
| Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | 1970 | 52.9% | 40.8% | 5.9% | | 1974 | 44.5% | 34.2% | 21.3% | | 1974 | 45.4% | 38.0% | 16.7% | | 1979 | 51.3% | 31.2% | 15.7% | 1.8% | 1983 | 51.3% | 17.5% | 29.6% | | 1987 | 54.0% | 18.2% | 26.2% | | 1992 | 49.7% | 17.7% | 30.9% | |
| Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/ BXP | Green | | | | | | | 1997 | 33.5% | 23.9% | 38.2% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 2001 | 33.8% | 18.4% | 45.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2005 | 37.8% | 17.2% | 40.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2010 | 36.8% | 8.7% | 48.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 2015 | 31.7% | 15.0% | 34.9% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 2017 | 38.3% | 18.4% | 41.0% | | 1.0% | 2019 | 42.4% | 12.4% | 41.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
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Post by batman on Apr 26, 2024 21:26:21 GMT
I didn't know Carshalton included the Banstead UD until 1974. No wonder Labour didn't win in 1945
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Post by connor on May 22, 2024 20:54:10 GMT
Liberal Democrat Gain From Conservative
Bobby Dean (Liberal Democrat)
A brief five year run about to end when the Tory vote dips. Can't see any other result to be fair.
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graham
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Post by graham on May 23, 2024 7:57:11 GMT
Liberal Democrat Gain From Conservative Bobby Dean (Liberal Democrat) A brief five year run about to end when the Tory vote dips. Can't see any other result to be fair. If the Labour vote here were to rise to circa 25% , it could derail the LDs - particularly with the loss of Tom Brake's personal vote.
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wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
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Post by wallington on Jun 7, 2024 16:49:03 GMT
CARSHALTON & WALLINGTON: WPB - Atif Abdul Rashid CONS - Elliot Colburn REF UK - Elizabeth Cooper LIB DEM - Bobby Dean CPA - Ashley Dickenson GRN - Tracey Hague SDP - Steve Kelleher LAB - Hersh Thaker
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Post by londonseal80 on Jun 8, 2024 9:43:28 GMT
Liberal Democrat Gain From Conservative Bobby Dean (Liberal Democrat) A brief five year run about to end when the Tory vote dips. Can't see any other result to be fair. If the Labour vote here were to rise to circa 25% , it could derail the LDs - particularly with the loss of Tom Brake's personal vote. This seat could have a decent Reform vote (with Farage back as Leader) which could also harm the Tories. I think a LD gain is likely and in Sutton and Cheam.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 8, 2024 10:12:56 GMT
This was a Tory/Lab marginal in the 1970s . Labour voters have voted tactically on a huge scale for LDs since 1997. To what extent might that unwind now that LDs have lost the seat and have a new candidate?
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Post by londonseal80 on Jun 10, 2024 12:29:38 GMT
In this election not much unwind to Labour they will be a small natural swing to them but tactical voters will vote Lib Dem, the Lib Dem’s have a strong councillor base still and the Lib Dem standing is also a councillor for Wrythe. It might go straight back to the Conservatives in the election after but for this one I am predicting a Lib Dem.
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Post by stodge on Jul 7, 2024 10:59:51 GMT
Really delighted for Bobby Dean and hopefully he can build the seat into the fortress it was for Tom Brake for over 20 years.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on Jul 7, 2024 15:36:03 GMT
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 7, 2024 20:51:44 GMT
Saw Bobby Dean interviewed on BBC and he seemed like a nice bloke. Fairly unusual for a Lib Dem MP to have a working class background.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,582
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 8, 2024 7:36:37 GMT
Saw Bobby Dean interviewed on BBC and he seemed like a nice bloke. Fairly unusual for a Lib Dem MP to have a working class background. Pretty unusual for MPs of any party really.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 8, 2024 17:10:50 GMT
Saw Bobby Dean interviewed on BBC and he seemed like a nice bloke. Fairly unusual for a Lib Dem MP to have a working class background. And a fine darts player in his day!
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 23, 2024 23:34:25 GMT
Just noticed that Sky News flashed this up as a Labour gain at about 2:15am on their programme. (Doing my running totals spreadsheet).
About 5 hours 18 mins.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 24, 2024 16:04:43 GMT
Just noticed that Sky News flashed this up as a Labour gain at about 2:15am on their programme. (Doing my running totals spreadsheet). About 5 hours 18 mins. Blimey that was painful. I only watched about 3 minutes of that, but it was dreadful in its presentation, and the attitude of how the presenters and guests were speaking. That Cow Kay Burley blatantly talking over the hartlepool declaration in order to blurt out that Reform had won Ashfield. "You're staring at me in stunned silence," she said, apparently thinking that she was so brilliant in telling them something which was visible on screen anyway, oblivious to the fact that they were stunned that she was talking over Hartlepool.
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jul 24, 2024 16:07:26 GMT
I noticed that flash on the night, but it didn't show up on the Sky News website (which often ran well ahead of television coverage, at least for the headline result) so I took that as the canonical Sky misallocation.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 24, 2024 16:08:48 GMT
I think it flashed up on the BBC screen as a Labour gain as well. I'm pretty sure as I watched them most of the night, though they were irritating I switched over to Sky briefly and they were dire - Kay Burley is intolerable. It's possible I suppose that the very brief period when I was watching Sky was when Carshalton flashed up as a Labour gain.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 24, 2024 16:38:06 GMT
Sky News also erroneously reported Suffolk Coastal as a Green gain.
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