Carshalton and Wallington

[stb12]

Carshalton and Wallington

[markgoodair]

Reform have selected Elizabeth Cooper as their PPC.

[Pete Whitehead]

One for graham to dine out on

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work. The boundaries are fundamentally unchanges since 1974 so the results since then are actual rather than notional

	Con	Lab	Lib
1945	42.0%	52.2%	5.8%
1950	49.1%	42.2%	8.6%
1951	55.8%	44.2%
1955	54.1%	41.1%	4.8%
1959	54.9%	37.3%	7.8%
1964	45.4%	35.3%	18.9%
1966	44.3%	41.8%	13.5%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP
1970	52.9%	40.8%	5.9%
1974	44.5%	34.2%	21.3%
1974	45.4%	38.0%	16.7%
1979	51.3%	31.2%	15.7%	1.8%
1983	51.3%	17.5%	29.6%
1987	54.0%	18.2%	26.2%
1992	49.7%	17.7%	30.9%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP/ BXP	Green
1997	33.5%	23.9%	38.2%	2.7%	0.8%
2001	33.8%	18.4%	45.0%	1.2%	1.5%
2005	37.8%	17.2%	40.3%	2.6%	2.1%
2010	36.8%	8.7%	48.3%	2.9%	0.8%
2015	31.7%	15.0%	34.9%	14.8%	3.2%
2017	38.3%	18.4%	41.0%		1.0%
2019	42.4%	12.4%	41.1%	2.1%	1.5%

[batman]

I didn't know Carshalton included the Banstead UD until 1974. No wonder Labour didn't win in 1945

[connor]

Liberal Democrat Gain From Conservative

Bobby Dean (Liberal Democrat)

A brief five year run about to end when the Tory vote dips. Can't see any other result to be fair.

[graham]

May 22, 2024 20:54:10 GMT connor said:

Liberal Democrat Gain From Conservative

Bobby Dean (Liberal Democrat)

A brief five year run about to end when the Tory vote dips. Can't see any other result to be fair.

If the Labour vote here were to rise to circa 25% , it could derail the LDs - particularly with the loss of Tom Brake's personal vote.

[wallington]

CARSHALTON & WALLINGTON:
WPB - Atif Abdul Rashid
CONS - Elliot Colburn
REF UK - Elizabeth Cooper
LIB DEM - Bobby Dean
CPA - Ashley Dickenson
GRN - Tracey Hague
SDP - Steve Kelleher
LAB - Hersh Thaker

[londonseal80]

May 23, 2024 7:57:11 GMT graham said:

May 22, 2024 20:54:10 GMT connor said:

Liberal Democrat Gain From Conservative

Bobby Dean (Liberal Democrat)

A brief five year run about to end when the Tory vote dips. Can't see any other result to be fair.

If the Labour vote here were to rise to circa 25% , it could derail the LDs - particularly with the loss of Tom Brake's personal vote.

This seat could have a decent Reform vote (with Farage back as Leader) which could also harm the Tories. I think a LD gain is likely and in Sutton and Cheam.

[graham]

This was a Tory/Lab marginal in the 1970s . Labour voters have voted tactically on a huge scale for LDs since 1997. To what extent might that unwind now that LDs have lost the seat and have a new candidate?

[londonseal80]

In this election not much unwind to Labour they will be a small natural swing to them but tactical voters will vote Lib Dem, the Lib Dem’s have a strong councillor base still and the Lib Dem standing is also a councillor for Wrythe. It might go straight back to the Conservatives in the election after but for this one I am predicting a Lib Dem.

[stodge]

Really delighted for Bobby Dean and hopefully he can build the seat into the fortress it was for Tom Brake for over 20 years.

[cogload]

www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001153

[evergreenadam]

Saw Bobby Dean interviewed on BBC and he seemed like a nice bloke. Fairly unusual for a Lib Dem MP to have a working class background.

[Chris from Brum]

Jul 7, 2024 20:51:44 GMT evergreenadam said:

Saw Bobby Dean interviewed on BBC and he seemed like a nice bloke. Fairly unusual for a Lib Dem MP to have a working class background.

Pretty unusual for MPs of any party really.

[steve]

Jul 7, 2024 20:51:44 GMT evergreenadam said:

Saw Bobby Dean interviewed on BBC and he seemed like a nice bloke. Fairly unusual for a Lib Dem MP to have a working class background.

And a fine darts player in his day!

[Andrew_S]

Just noticed that Sky News flashed this up as a Labour gain at about 2:15am on their programme. (Doing my running totals spreadsheet).

About 5 hours 18 mins.

[johnloony]

Jul 23, 2024 23:34:25 GMT Andrew_S said:

Just noticed that Sky News flashed this up as a Labour gain at about 2:15am on their programme. (Doing my running totals spreadsheet).

About 5 hours 18 mins.

Blimey that was painful. I only watched about 3 minutes of that, but it was dreadful in its presentation, and the attitude of how the presenters and guests were speaking. That Cow Kay Burley blatantly talking over the hartlepool declaration in order to blurt out that Reform had won Ashfield. "You're staring at me in stunned silence," she said, apparently thinking that she was so brilliant in telling them something which was visible on screen anyway, oblivious to the fact that they were stunned that she was talking over Hartlepool.

[Ports]

I noticed that flash on the night, but it didn't show up on the Sky News website (which often ran well ahead of television coverage, at least for the headline result) so I took that as the canonical Sky misallocation. 

[Pete Whitehead]

I think it flashed up on the BBC screen as a Labour gain as well. I'm pretty sure as I watched them most of the night, though they were irritating I switched over to Sky briefly and they were dire - Kay Burley is intolerable. It's possible I suppose that the very brief period when I was watching Sky was when Carshalton flashed up as a Labour gain.

[heslingtonian]

Sky News also erroneously reported Suffolk Coastal as a Green gain.