Bromley and Biggin Hill

[stb12]

Bromley and Biggin Hill

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work

	Con	Lab	Lib
1945	48.4%	34.3%	16.9%
1950	58.9%	28.8%	12.2%
1951	67.7%	32.3%
1955	69.8%	29.6%	0.6%
1959	69.3%	26.5%	4.2%
1964	52.9%	21.0%	24.7%
1966	52.3%	23.6%	24.1%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP
1970	59.2%	21.4%	19.5%
1974	52.0%	18.9%	27.9%	1.1%
1974	51.9%	21.5%	25.7%	0.9%
1979	61.3%	18.8%	18.7%	1.2%
1983	62.0%	10.5%	27.0%	0.5%
1987	61.8%	11.5%	26.4%	0.3%
1992	62.8%	13.9%	20.6%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP/ BXP	Green
1997	47.3%	21.2%	26.4%	2.6%	1.0%
2001	50.4%	23.2%	23.5%	2.7%
2005	51.6%	17.7%	25.0%	3.1%	1.8%
2010	55.8%	13.7%	22.9%	3.4%	1.4%
2015	55.4%	19.4%	6.9%	14.2%	4.0%
2017	58.3%	29.6%	7.6%	2.7%	1.7%
2019	55.5%	25.4%	15.0%		3.7%

[batman]

The boundary change which has resulted in this seat becoming Bromley & Biggin Hill gives the Tories a much better chance of survival than they would have had in the outgoing Bromley & Chislehurst, although they would have had a decent chance of surviving there too. This seat looks a bit too safe Tory for Labour to win, as Labour only has anything resembling a natural lead in Plaistow ward, and will expect to be a long way behind in Biggin Hill, and that part of the albeit rather sparsely populated Darwin ward which is to be included; also Bickley & Sundridge is reliably Conservative & one suspects that the only other ward with the potential of an actual Labour lead over the Tories is the (rather small) Bromley Town though Labour has some decent minority support in Bromley Common & Holwood too. The retirement of Bob Neill doesn't help the Tories but it shouldn't be fatal.

[mondialito]

SOPN:

Alan COOK - Reform UK

Peter Timothy FORTUNE - Conservative Party

Julie IRELAND - Liberal Democrats

Karen MILLER - Climate Party

Oana OLARU-HOLMES - Labour Party

Caroline SANDES - Green Party

[right]

Reform's effort is actually rather good compared to some Reform leaflets over seen

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19460/

[froome]

This ended up being very close, with Conservatives winning by just 302 votes over Labour. I did think there was an outside chance of a shock win here. Does anyone know how actively Labour campaigned?

[batman]

I was unaware until Friday that I know the Labour candidate (a councillor in neighbouring Downham, Lewisham) quite well. She is a rare Romanian-born woman in British politics. I messaged her to commiserate with her on her near miss and she has replied but I don’t know how hard she campaigned. Knowing her, pretty hard.

[where2travel]

I'm quite surprised the Tories managed to hang on here. When I saw the exit poll, I expected this to go to Labour. Nearby Croydon South had a lower swing (under 11%) and was arguably a more surprising hold and a great result for Chris Philp. Especially as both seats are trending away from the Conservatives over time.

There was barely any sign of an election happening when I was in various bits of B&BH, although that's not to say residents weren't getting election material through the letterbox.

[batman]

The swing Labour needed to win on the new boundaries (see my profile in the Vote UK Almanac) was significantly higher than it had been in the former Bromley & Chislehurst. Labour only holds one council ward in this new constituency (Plaistow) and there are several wards where the party is distinctly weak, especially the part of Darwin which is included & Biggin Hill - also Bickley & Sundridge. I was surprised that we got so close, and in fact the boundary change saved the Tories. In Bexleyheath & Crayford it seems to have had the opposite effect though the 2 seats are not totally similar

[Pete Whitehead]

Croydon South was also possibly saved by the boundary changes, given how large a lead Labour must have had in Waddon. Conversely, the boundary changes clearly cost the Conservatives Chelsea & Fulham (as I thought they would) and most likely Hendon.

[Deleted]

Jul 7, 2024 9:59:48 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Croydon South was also possibly saved by the boundary changes, given how large a lead Labour must have had in Waddon. Conversely, the boundary changes clearly cost the Conservatives Chelsea & Fulham (as I thought they would) and most likely Hendon.

All true but I think the way back for the Tories is easier in Hendon, Uxbridge & S. Ruislip, and, dare I say it, Brent West (esp. with Suella), than some 2024 losses. 

[johnloony]

Jul 7, 2024 9:59:48 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Croydon South was also possibly saved by the boundary changes, given how large a lead Labour must have had in Waddon. Conversely, the boundary changes clearly cost the Conservatives Chelsea & Fulham (as I thought they would) and most likely Hendon.

In 2019 Croydon South had a majority of 12,300 on the old boundaries and a notional majority of 13,400 on the new boundaries. The new boundaries were favourable to Conservatives, but not enough to make the difference between Chris Philp winning or losing.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 7, 2024 10:43:32 GMT johnloony said:

Jul 7, 2024 9:59:48 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Croydon South was also possibly saved by the boundary changes, given how large a lead Labour must have had in Waddon. Conversely, the boundary changes clearly cost the Conservatives Chelsea & Fulham (as I thought they would) and most likely Hendon.

In 2019 Croydon South had a majority of 12,300 on the old boundaries and a notional majority of 13,400 on the new boundaries. The new boundaries were favourable to Conservatives, but not enough to make the difference between Chris Philp winning or losing.

Yes you're right. I forgot the compensatory loss of large parts of Seldon, largely offsetting the Waddon effect

[batman]

both Selsdon wards departed from Croydon S and were put into Croydon E. However, while these wards were largely in tune with the prevailing politics of South, Waddon was an outlier Labour-inclined ward in the constituency and made a Labour gain much less likely. Although as John says it wouldn't have been a gain on old boundaries either, in the end.

[johnloony]

Jul 7, 2024 18:22:02 GMT batman said:

both Selsdon wards departed from Croydon S and were put into Croydon E. However, while these wards were largely in tune with the prevailing politics of South, Waddon was an outlier Labour-inclined ward in the constituency and made a Labour gain much less likely. Although as John says it wouldn't have been a gain on old boundaries either, in the end.

Half of the two Selsdon wards were already in Croydon Central (now Croydon East); only the other half have been lost by Croydon South. In terms of electorate, about 2 councillors' worth.

[batman]

thanks John, don't know how I missed that. I thought that someone might have picked that up from my constituency profile but they didn't.

[manchesterman]

As mentioned in the Football Thread, this will be the only constituency next season to have an EFL football team with a Conservative MP (and they were just 303 votes away from not even managing one!)

[Foggy]

Jul 7, 2024 21:13:57 GMT manchesterman said:

As mentioned in the Football Thread, this will be the only constituency next season to have an EFL football team with a Conservative MP (and they were just 303 votes away from not even managing one!)

If they had lost the play-off final to Solihull Moors then West & Shirley would've had that distinction. The losing semi-finalists' grounds were both in seats gained by Labour I think... given that Barnet FC now play in Hendon then if they'd gone up, the swing in votes needed to prevent a blue EFL wipeout would've been even lower! 

[john07]

The first round of the EFL season saw Bromley play an away match at Harrogate. So that would be a Lib Dem v Conservative match. This will be a somewhat rare event this season to have a match with neither team from a Labour constituency, at least in England.

[Foggy]

Aug 11, 2024 0:55:48 GMT john07 said:

The first round of the EFL season saw Bromley play an away match at Harrogate. So that would be a Lib Dem v Conservative match. This will be a somewhat rare event this season to have a match with neither team from a Labour constituency, at least in England.

In Harrogate or at Harrogate Town, please. Unless you are the sort of person who wilfully disrespects Harrogate Railway Athletic by failing to specify which senior team in said Yorkshire spa town you're referring to?