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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:34:51 GMT
Brent West
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 18, 2024 19:46:49 GMT
Link to profile2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales) Age 65+ 12.3% 509/575 Owner occupied 47.4% 521/575 Private rented 37.5% 18/575 Social rented 15.1% 279/575 White 25.6% 570/575 Black 12.4% 38/575 Asian 50.1% 8/575 Managerial & professional 25.9% 474/575 Routine & Semi-routine 23.3% 296/575 Degree level 38.7% 136/575 No qualifications 22.5% 97/575 Students 11.9% 55/575 General election 2019: Brent NorthParty Candidate Votes % ±% Labour Barry Gardiner 26,911 51.9 -11.0Conservative Anjana Patel 18,832 36.3 +3.6 Liberal Democrats Paul Lorber 4,065 7.8 +5.0 Brexit Party Suzie O'Brien 951 1.8 N/A Green Simon Rebbitt 850 1.6 +0.5 Independent Noel Coonan 169 0.3 N/A Independent Elcena Jeffers 101 0.2 N/A Lab Majority 8,079 15.6 -14.7Turnout 51,879 61.9 -6.4 Labour hold Swing 7.3 Lab to C Boundary ChangesBrent West consists of 75.9% of Brent North 18.4% of Brent Central Mapboundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_116_Brent%20West_Portrait.pdfNotional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher) Lab | 25792 | 53.3% | Con | 16361 | 33.8% | LD | 4408 | 9.1% | Green | 826 | 1.7% | Brexit | 750 | 1.6% | Oths | 270 | 0.6% | | | | Majority | 9431 | 19.5% |
Candidates: Labour - Barry Gardiner - incumbent MP for Brent North Conservative - TBA Lib Dem - Paul Lorber - local councillor for Sudbury Reform UK - TBA
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 25, 2024 21:49:42 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | Con | Lab | Lib | Com | | | | | | 1945 | 42.2% | 44.2% | 13.5% | | 1950 | 53.4% | 35.2% | 10.7% | 0.7% | 1951 | 59.6% | 38.2% | 2.2% | | 1955 | 61.8% | 34.8% | 3.4% | | 1959 | 57.8% | 28.0% | 14.3% | | 1964 | 51.3% | 31.4% | 17.3% | | 1966 | 49.0% | 37.4% | 13.6% | |
| Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | 1970 | 56.8% | 39.4% | 3.8% | | 1974 | 45.7% | 31.6% | 19.6% | 2.8% | 1974 | 48.3% | 34.3% | 15.0% | 2.4% | 1979 | 52.3% | 36.2% | 9.8% | 1.5% | 1983 | 48.9% | 29.7% | 21.1% | | 1987 | 53.3% | 29.4% | 17.3% | | 1992 | 49.6% | 37.9% | 10.4% | |
| Con | Lab | LD | Green | Ref/UKIP/ BXP | | | | | | | 1997 | 31.5% | 56.8% | 9.6% | | | 2001 | 24.1% | 60.8% | 13.8% | | | 2005 | 27.7% | 46.6% | 22.2% | | | 2010 | 29.3% | 44.6% | 21.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2015 | 32.4% | 55.0% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2017 | 31.2% | 63.9% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 2019 | 33.8% | 53.3% | 9.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 7, 2024 14:49:53 GMT
Amongst the safest of Lab seats
Conservative Sushil Rapatwar Workers Party Nadia Klock Liberal Demoms Paul Lorber Green Baston De'Medici-Jaguar Labour Barry Gardiner
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 7, 2024 15:00:28 GMT
Baston De'Medici-Jaguar
Well there's a name....best yet and I think likely hard to beat in this election
The Greens definitely manage some exotic names.
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Post by norflondon on Jun 7, 2024 15:03:28 GMT
Sounds like a good ol' working class boy!
Actually, he's from Jamaica!
Anyway, I see Gardiner has lost Kingsbury but gained the huge area of recent flats development around Wembley Stadium. He'll be pleased,I'm sure & he's a football fan!
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,251
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Post by iain on Jun 8, 2024 19:07:08 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Jul 6, 2024 4:48:51 GMT
Barry Gardiner won by less than 10% here…
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2024 4:50:37 GMT
Hindu-led Tory party opportunity seat, rcronald . Barry Gardiner will be 72 by the next election and after 32 years, he may stand down. This result was always pretty likely given that Sunak was Tory leader. Should they choose Priti or Suella, this seat could certainly be in play next time. Cons' GLA results were good too. I reckon without Reform or the Workers' Party, the result would be: LAB 42% CON 37% GRN 12%, LD 9%. Reform probably helped Gardiner's majority. The Guardian's Anywhere but Westminster needs to cover this seat in the next GE or in the 2026 locals - we can call the segment 'Gardiner's World'.
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Post by rcronald on Jul 6, 2024 5:24:53 GMT
Hindu-led Tory party opportunity seat, rcronald . Barry Gardiner will be 72 by the next election and after 32 years, he may stand down. This result was always pretty likely given that Sunak was Tory leader. Should they choose Priti or Suella, this seat could certainly be in play next time. Cons' GLA results were good too. I reckon without Reform or the Workers' Party, the result would be: LAB 42% CON 37% GRN 12%, LD 9%. Reform probably helped Gardiner's majority. The Guardian's Anywhere but Westminster needs to cover this seat in the next GE or in the 2026 locals - we can call the segment 'Gardiner's World'. and this is under the more favourable new boundaries, and with Gardiner’s personal vote…
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2024 5:52:58 GMT
Hindu-led Tory party opportunity seat, rcronald . Barry Gardiner will be 72 by the next election and after 32 years, he may stand down. This result was always pretty likely given that Sunak was Tory leader. Should they choose Priti or Suella, this seat could certainly be in play next time. Cons' GLA results were good too. I reckon without Reform or the Workers' Party, the result would be: LAB 42% CON 37% GRN 12%, LD 9%. Reform probably helped Gardiner's majority. The Guardian's Anywhere but Westminster needs to cover this seat in the next GE or in the 2026 locals - we can call the segment 'Gardiner's World'. and this is under the more favourable new boundaries, and with Gardiner’s personal vote… Will Barry Gardiner really want to be an MP at 77? I'm not too convinced that many of the 1997 intake will stand again in 2029 to be completely honest with you.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 9, 2024 6:33:20 GMT
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Post by norflondon on Jul 9, 2024 6:57:41 GMT
Gardiner, regarded the Commons best educated member, another Corbyn stained Labour MP overlooked, unsurprisingly, by Starmer.
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Post by batman on Jul 9, 2024 8:49:08 GMT
Gardiner was quite an effective performer under Corbyn at first. But he's really completely lost it & has become weird. His will-he-won't-he behaviour re the 2020 leadership election made him a figure of ridicule even amongst left-wingers who had previously supported him. He is absolutely not fit for ministerial office now. It's a shame as he made some very telling interventions in the earlier part of his rather belated Shad Cab career
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 9, 2024 9:14:07 GMT
Gardiner has a bit of the Vicar of Bray about him. He was a Labour loyalist when first elected, then became the most Blairite of Blairites (I've often quoted his strong support for the liberation of Iraq), got his reward in junior government posts, initially backed Brown but then went against him, became a Shadow Minister under Ed Miliband, then reinvented himself as a Corbynite.
It's not quite Andy Burnham levels but it's up there.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2024 9:16:06 GMT
Not to worry. Some Tory in the BJP mould will take out Gardiner (Gardin(er)ing), pruning the Gardin(er) in 2029. IMO, brown led Tory party opportunity district.
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Post by rcronald on Jul 9, 2024 9:18:50 GMT
Gardiner has a bit of the Vicar of Bray about him. He was a Labour loyalist when first elected, then became the most Blairite of Blairites (I've often quoted his strong support for the liberation of Iraq), got his reward in junior government posts, initially backed Brown but then went against him, became a Shadow Minister under Ed Miliband, then reinvented himself as a Corbynite. It's not quite Andy Burnham levels but it's up there. Thanks for reminding me why I can’t take Andy Burnham seriously!
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 9, 2024 13:13:32 GMT
In fairness I do think that Burnham's politics have genuinely evolved over time and its not just opportunism (though of course part of it is, as with most successful politicians in truth) He can also be seen as one of those who experienced the limits of Blairism and learned from it.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 9, 2024 13:16:22 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 9, 2024 13:20:09 GMT
I did vote for him in 2015 after all!
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