Brent West

[stb12]

Brent West

[Pete Whitehead]

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Nov 21, 2023 20:30:24 GMT Robert Waller said:

2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)

Age 65+ 12.3% 509/575
Owner occupied 47.4% 521/575
Private rented 37.5% 18/575
Social rented 15.1% 279/575
White 25.6% 570/575
Black 12.4% 38/575
Asian 50.1% 8/575
Managerial & professional 25.9% 474/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.3% 296/575
Degree level 38.7% 136/575
No qualifications 22.5% 97/575
Students 11.9% 55/575

General election 2019: Brent North

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Labour Barry Gardiner 26,911 51.9 -11.0
Conservative Anjana Patel 18,832 36.3 +3.6
Liberal Democrats Paul Lorber 4,065 7.8 +5.0
Brexit Party Suzie O'Brien 951 1.8 N/A
Green Simon Rebbitt 850 1.6 +0.5
Independent Noel Coonan 169 0.3 N/A
Independent Elcena Jeffers 101 0.2 N/A

Lab Majority 8,079 15.6 -14.7

Turnout 51,879 61.9 -6.4

Labour hold

Swing 7.3 Lab to C



Boundary Changes

Brent West consists of
75.9% of Brent North
18.4% of Brent Central

Map

boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_116_Brent%20West_Portrait.pdf

Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)

Lab	25792	53.3%
Con	16361	33.8%
LD	4408	9.1%
Green	826	1.7%
Brexit	750	1.6%
Oths	270	0.6%
Majority	9431	19.5%

Candidates:

Labour - Barry Gardiner - incumbent MP for Brent North
Conservative - TBA
Lib Dem - Paul Lorber - local councillor for Sudbury
Reform UK - TBA

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work

	Con	Lab	Lib	Com
1945	42.2%	44.2%	13.5%
1950	53.4%	35.2%	10.7%	0.7%
1951	59.6%	38.2%	2.2%
1955	61.8%	34.8%	3.4%
1959	57.8%	28.0%	14.3%
1964	51.3%	31.4%	17.3%
1966	49.0%	37.4%	13.6%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP
1970	56.8%	39.4%	3.8%
1974	45.7%	31.6%	19.6%	2.8%
1974	48.3%	34.3%	15.0%	2.4%
1979	52.3%	36.2%	9.8%	1.5%
1983	48.9%	29.7%	21.1%
1987	53.3%	29.4%	17.3%
1992	49.6%	37.9%	10.4%

	Con	Lab	LD	Green	Ref/UKIP/ BXP
1997	31.5%	56.8%	9.6%
2001	24.1%	60.8%	13.8%
2005	27.7%	46.6%	22.2%
2010	29.3%	44.6%	21.2%	1.4%	1.2%
2015	32.4%	55.0%	5.7%	3.5%	2.9%
2017	31.2%	63.9%	3.2%	1.1%	0.5%
2019	33.8%	53.3%	9.1%	1.7%	1.6%

[norflondon]

Amongst the safest of Lab seats

Conservative Sushil Rapatwar
Workers Party Nadia Klock
Liberal Demoms Paul Lorber
Green Baston De'Medici-Jaguar
Labour Barry Gardiner

[John Chanin]

Baston De'Medici-Jaguar

Well there's a name....best yet and I think likely hard to beat in this election

The Greens definitely manage some exotic names.

[norflondon]

Sounds like a good ol' working class boy!

Actually, he's from Jamaica!

Anyway, I see Gardiner has lost Kingsbury but gained the huge area of recent flats development around Wembley Stadium. He'll be pleased,I'm sure & he's a football fan!

[iain]

Jun 7, 2024 14:49:53 GMT norflondon said:

Amongst the safest of Lab seats

Conservative Sushil Rapatwar
Workers Party Nadia Klock
Liberal Demoms Paul Lorber
Green Baston De'Medici-Jaguar
Labour Barry Gardiner

Also, Ian Collier, Reform UK

legacy.brent.gov.uk/media/16421186/statement-of-persons-nominated-ukge24-brent-west.pdf?_ga=2.132523784.788267230.1717873467-2134900362.1717873467

[rcronald]

Barry Gardiner won by less than 10% here…

[Deleted]

Hindu-led Tory party opportunity seat, rcronald . Barry Gardiner will be 72 by the next election and after 32 years, he may stand down. This result was always pretty likely given that Sunak was Tory leader. Should they choose Priti or Suella, this seat could certainly be in play next time. Cons' GLA results were good too.

I reckon without Reform or the Workers' Party, the result would be: LAB 42% CON 37% GRN 12%, LD 9%. Reform probably helped Gardiner's majority. 

The Guardian's Anywhere but Westminster needs to cover this seat in the next GE or in the 2026 locals - we can call the segment 'Gardiner's World'.

[rcronald]

Jul 6, 2024 4:50:37 GMT @weld said:

Hindu-led Tory party opportunity seat, rcronald . Barry Gardiner will be 72 by the next election and after 32 years, he may stand down. This result was always pretty likely given that Sunak was Tory leader. Should they choose Priti or Suella, this seat could certainly be in play next time. Cons' GLA results were good too.

I reckon without Reform or the Workers' Party, the result would be: LAB 42% CON 37% GRN 12%, LD 9%. Reform probably helped Gardiner's majority. 

The Guardian's Anywhere but Westminster needs to cover this seat in the next GE or in the 2026 locals - we can call the segment 'Gardiner's World'.

and this is under the more favourable new boundaries, and with Gardiner’s personal vote…

[Deleted]

Jul 6, 2024 5:24:53 GMT rcronald said:

Jul 6, 2024 4:50:37 GMT @weld said:

Hindu-led Tory party opportunity seat, rcronald . Barry Gardiner will be 72 by the next election and after 32 years, he may stand down. This result was always pretty likely given that Sunak was Tory leader. Should they choose Priti or Suella, this seat could certainly be in play next time. Cons' GLA results were good too.

I reckon without Reform or the Workers' Party, the result would be: LAB 42% CON 37% GRN 12%, LD 9%. Reform probably helped Gardiner's majority. 

The Guardian's Anywhere but Westminster needs to cover this seat in the next GE or in the 2026 locals - we can call the segment 'Gardiner's World'.

and this is under the more favourable new boundaries, and with Gardiner’s personal vote…

Will Barry Gardiner really want to be an MP at 77? I'm not too convinced that many of the 1997 intake will stand again in 2029 to be completely honest with you. 

[Andrew_S]

Lab 17,258
Con 13,465

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001123

[norflondon]

Gardiner, regarded the Commons best educated member, another Corbyn stained Labour MP overlooked, unsurprisingly, by Starmer.

[batman]

Gardiner was quite an effective performer under Corbyn at first. But he's really completely lost it & has become weird. His will-he-won't-he behaviour re the 2020 leadership election made him a figure of ridicule even amongst left-wingers who had previously supported him. He is absolutely not fit for ministerial office now. It's a shame as he made some very telling interventions in the earlier part of his rather belated Shad Cab career

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Gardiner has a bit of the Vicar of Bray about him. He was a Labour loyalist when first elected, then became the most Blairite of Blairites (I've often quoted his strong support for the liberation of Iraq), got his reward in junior government posts, initially backed Brown but then went against him, became a Shadow Minister under Ed Miliband, then reinvented himself as a Corbynite.

It's not quite Andy Burnham levels but it's up there.

[Deleted]

Not to worry. Some Tory in the BJP mould will take out Gardiner (Gardin(er)ing), pruning the Gardin(er) in 2029. IMO, brown led Tory party opportunity district. 

[rcronald]

Jul 9, 2024 9:14:07 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Gardiner has a bit of the Vicar of Bray about him. He was a Labour loyalist when first elected, then became the most Blairite of Blairites (I've often quoted his strong support for the liberation of Iraq), got his reward in junior government posts, initially backed Brown but then went against him, became a Shadow Minister under Ed Miliband, then reinvented himself as a Corbynite.

It's not quite Andy Burnham levels but it's up there.

Thanks for reminding me why I can’t take Andy Burnham seriously!

[The Bishop]

In fairness I do think that Burnham's politics have genuinely evolved over time and its not just opportunism (though of course part of it is, as with most successful politicians in truth) He can also be seen as one of those who experienced the limits of Blairism and learned from it.

[Pete Whitehead]

The Bishop of Bray would say that..

[The Bishop]

I did vote for him in 2015 after all!