Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 21, 2023 18:34:41 GMT
Since 1974, when the London constituencies were first drawn up with regard to the ‘new’ (ie post 1964) boroughs, the seats in Brent have had compass point names. In that time, we have had East, North, South and Central constituencies but no West – that is until now.
Brent West may be a new name, but it is not really a new seat – rather this is a modified version of the previous Brent North seat. In the initial and revised proposals by the boundary commission this was to be named Wembley but though the boundaries themselves were no different, they opted for the name Brent West in their final recommendations. Wembley would have been a logical name as this constituency corresponds closely to the boundaries of the pre-1937 Wembley Urban District and the name has far greater resonance, not least due to the world-renowned Wembley Stadium - a bit of an open goal missed some might think.
Brent North was created in 1974 from the whole of the safe Conservative Wembley North seat together with the Northern (more Conservative) half of the more marginal Wembley South. As such this was a safe Conservative seat which sent Dr Rhodes Boyson to parliament for nearly a quarter of a century. There were some very good residential areas in this heavily owner-occupied suburban constituency, especially in Kenton, Barnhill and Preston – wards so named were among the safest Conservative wards in London in the 1980s and early 1990s. There were pockets of Labour support in the old Brent North. The East of the constituency, Kingsbury and Queensbury were a little more downmarket and Labour were competitive in good years in one or two of the wards bordering the A5 like Fryent and Roe Green. Their main source of support though was in St Andrews ward which was dominated by the vast and grim Chalkhill estate
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In 1997 the St Andrews ward was removed leaving Brent North as apparently even safer than before – at the time of the general election the Conservatives held every council seat in the constituency, most of them comfortably. It was therefore one of the great shocks of the 1997 election when Barry Gardiner gained this seat for Labour, achieving their largest swing in the country (almost 19%). The swings in this part of London were especially brutal that year and this was partly linked to a local issue, namely the closure of Edgware General Hospital (there were also very large swings in the neighbouring Harrow and Hendon seats). But combined with these local factors and the Labour landslide nationally there had been significant demographic changes. Already by 1991 over 40% of the population of Brent North was ‘non-White’. Mostly this was Indian Hindus, many quite well off and Rhodes Boyson may have done relatively well with this community at previous elections, but in general this added to the long-term weakening of the Conservative position.
In 2001 Barry Gardiner again enjoyed Labours largest swing, benefitting from incumbency, and increased the majority to over 10,000, outpolling the Conservatives by more than two to one. The constituency had transformed from safe Conservative to safe Labour in less than a decade. There was some swing back in 2005 but the seat remained safe for Labour and further reinforcements came with the boundary changes ahead of the 2010 election.
These involved mainly the annexation of a large chunk of the abolished Brent South constituency. The Chalkhill estate (now part of Barnhill ward) was returned – this had been redeveloped in the meantime, the vast concrete blocks demolished and replaced with more friendly low-rise housing. But it is still a deprived area, heavily Black and overwhelmingly Labour.
More significant was the addition of three wards around the centre of Wembley – Wembley Central itself, Alperton and Sudbury. The last named (which was really the successor to the old Barham ward rather than the previous ward named Sudbury) was an area of long-term Lib Dem strength in local elections, having previously been a predominantly Conservative ward. Alperton had also been won by the Lib Dems since 1990 having previously been safely Labour and Wembley Central likewise went Lib Dem in 2002. The Lib Dems therefore went into the 2010 election holding all the seats in these three wards but in the local elections on the same day as the general election, Labour gained all three seats in Wembley Central and one of three in each of Alperton and Sudbury.
Four years later they won all the other seats. Lib Dem local support has not entirely faded, and they have recovered seats in both Alperton and Sudbury more recently, but they have never translated this into general election support. Certainly, as far as the Labour/Conservative contest goes these wards give Labour a significant boost. These wards are even more heavily Asian that those which were already in Brent North – over 60% in Alperton and nearly 70% in Wembley Central, where the White British population is below 5% (and is also outnumbered by Black, ‘White Other’ and ‘Other’).
Apart from parts of Sudbury this is not an affluent area. Alperton was always a working class and Labour supporting area even before mass immigration transformed it - Wembley Central likewise. Wembley Central has the highest proportion of Hindus in London and the third highest in England & Wales (Alperton comes in at number two and four respectively).
This core of ‘South Wembley’ is augmented by Tokyngton and Wembley Park wards from Brent Central, taking the boundary in this part of the seat up to the river Brent. This covers the area around Wembley stadium and is a bit more ethnically diverse in as much as there is a larger white population in Wembley Park and a larger Black population in Tokyngton. The Conservatives used to be competitive in the old, larger Tokyngton ward (which covered the area now included in Wembley Park as well) and in 2006 the Lib Dems made it a three-way marginal. But Labour were far ahead by 2014 and in the first elections on these ward boundaries in 2022 they won both wards very easily, making them the safest wards in this ‘new’ seat.
Moving out of the seat is much of Kingsbury – Kingsbury ward itself (a bit of a misnomer as it only covers a small part of Kingsbury, basically the area around Roe Green and the West side of the Edgware Road), and parts of Kingsbury Green (which have moved into Welsh Harp ward). This is basically the old Fryent ward and is moved into Brent Central/East. It was one of the stronger Labour areas in the old Brent North but not as strong for them as the areas replacing it. Additionally, the Queensbury ward in the far North (which actually includes the centre of Kingsbury) is moved into Harrow East. This had tended to be a marginally Labour ward in most recent years but in 2022 it mirrored the behaviour of the demographically similar neighbouring wards in Harrow as the Conservatives topped the poll.
Clearly then this is another favourable boundary change for Labour as Tokyngton and Wembley Park are much more strongly in their favour than the Kingsbury/Queensbury area they replace. Broadly speaking the seat becomes less affluent and less Conservative the further South you go, and the boundary changes move the seat South. The one reliable Conservative ward in Brent is Kenton in the far North of this seat, still quite a wealthy area. Parts of Northwick Park, Preston and Barnhill are similar (Barnhill is a safe Labour ward due to the inclusion of the Chalkhill estate but the area North of Forty Lane – Barn Hill itself – is still quite desirable) although all these are the kind of areas where private renting has gone up massively at the expense of owner occupation – another demographic development which has hurt the Conservatives here as elsewhere.
Not that there was much threat to Labour’s position in the existing Brent North – at least not yet. This will have second highest proportion of Hindus in the country behind Leicester East and just ahead of Harrow East – two seats where Labour have underperformed lately as many Hindu voters are shifting their long-term allegiances. Labour can count on Barry Gardiner’s personal vote, the presence of many other, more reliable, ethnic minority voters, and the favourable national situation.
Absent the first two factors, things could shift again as they have before. On the new boundaries, this is the seat with the second lowest White British percentage in the country (less than 10%) and one does not need to even leave Brent to see how communal factors can cause wild and unexpected swings amongst South Asian origin voters.
Brent West may be a new name, but it is not really a new seat – rather this is a modified version of the previous Brent North seat. In the initial and revised proposals by the boundary commission this was to be named Wembley but though the boundaries themselves were no different, they opted for the name Brent West in their final recommendations. Wembley would have been a logical name as this constituency corresponds closely to the boundaries of the pre-1937 Wembley Urban District and the name has far greater resonance, not least due to the world-renowned Wembley Stadium - a bit of an open goal missed some might think.
Brent North was created in 1974 from the whole of the safe Conservative Wembley North seat together with the Northern (more Conservative) half of the more marginal Wembley South. As such this was a safe Conservative seat which sent Dr Rhodes Boyson to parliament for nearly a quarter of a century. There were some very good residential areas in this heavily owner-occupied suburban constituency, especially in Kenton, Barnhill and Preston – wards so named were among the safest Conservative wards in London in the 1980s and early 1990s. There were pockets of Labour support in the old Brent North. The East of the constituency, Kingsbury and Queensbury were a little more downmarket and Labour were competitive in good years in one or two of the wards bordering the A5 like Fryent and Roe Green. Their main source of support though was in St Andrews ward which was dominated by the vast and grim Chalkhill estate
)
In 1997 the St Andrews ward was removed leaving Brent North as apparently even safer than before – at the time of the general election the Conservatives held every council seat in the constituency, most of them comfortably. It was therefore one of the great shocks of the 1997 election when Barry Gardiner gained this seat for Labour, achieving their largest swing in the country (almost 19%). The swings in this part of London were especially brutal that year and this was partly linked to a local issue, namely the closure of Edgware General Hospital (there were also very large swings in the neighbouring Harrow and Hendon seats). But combined with these local factors and the Labour landslide nationally there had been significant demographic changes. Already by 1991 over 40% of the population of Brent North was ‘non-White’. Mostly this was Indian Hindus, many quite well off and Rhodes Boyson may have done relatively well with this community at previous elections, but in general this added to the long-term weakening of the Conservative position.
In 2001 Barry Gardiner again enjoyed Labours largest swing, benefitting from incumbency, and increased the majority to over 10,000, outpolling the Conservatives by more than two to one. The constituency had transformed from safe Conservative to safe Labour in less than a decade. There was some swing back in 2005 but the seat remained safe for Labour and further reinforcements came with the boundary changes ahead of the 2010 election.
These involved mainly the annexation of a large chunk of the abolished Brent South constituency. The Chalkhill estate (now part of Barnhill ward) was returned – this had been redeveloped in the meantime, the vast concrete blocks demolished and replaced with more friendly low-rise housing. But it is still a deprived area, heavily Black and overwhelmingly Labour.
More significant was the addition of three wards around the centre of Wembley – Wembley Central itself, Alperton and Sudbury. The last named (which was really the successor to the old Barham ward rather than the previous ward named Sudbury) was an area of long-term Lib Dem strength in local elections, having previously been a predominantly Conservative ward. Alperton had also been won by the Lib Dems since 1990 having previously been safely Labour and Wembley Central likewise went Lib Dem in 2002. The Lib Dems therefore went into the 2010 election holding all the seats in these three wards but in the local elections on the same day as the general election, Labour gained all three seats in Wembley Central and one of three in each of Alperton and Sudbury.
Four years later they won all the other seats. Lib Dem local support has not entirely faded, and they have recovered seats in both Alperton and Sudbury more recently, but they have never translated this into general election support. Certainly, as far as the Labour/Conservative contest goes these wards give Labour a significant boost. These wards are even more heavily Asian that those which were already in Brent North – over 60% in Alperton and nearly 70% in Wembley Central, where the White British population is below 5% (and is also outnumbered by Black, ‘White Other’ and ‘Other’).
Apart from parts of Sudbury this is not an affluent area. Alperton was always a working class and Labour supporting area even before mass immigration transformed it - Wembley Central likewise. Wembley Central has the highest proportion of Hindus in London and the third highest in England & Wales (Alperton comes in at number two and four respectively).
This core of ‘South Wembley’ is augmented by Tokyngton and Wembley Park wards from Brent Central, taking the boundary in this part of the seat up to the river Brent. This covers the area around Wembley stadium and is a bit more ethnically diverse in as much as there is a larger white population in Wembley Park and a larger Black population in Tokyngton. The Conservatives used to be competitive in the old, larger Tokyngton ward (which covered the area now included in Wembley Park as well) and in 2006 the Lib Dems made it a three-way marginal. But Labour were far ahead by 2014 and in the first elections on these ward boundaries in 2022 they won both wards very easily, making them the safest wards in this ‘new’ seat.
Moving out of the seat is much of Kingsbury – Kingsbury ward itself (a bit of a misnomer as it only covers a small part of Kingsbury, basically the area around Roe Green and the West side of the Edgware Road), and parts of Kingsbury Green (which have moved into Welsh Harp ward). This is basically the old Fryent ward and is moved into Brent Central/East. It was one of the stronger Labour areas in the old Brent North but not as strong for them as the areas replacing it. Additionally, the Queensbury ward in the far North (which actually includes the centre of Kingsbury) is moved into Harrow East. This had tended to be a marginally Labour ward in most recent years but in 2022 it mirrored the behaviour of the demographically similar neighbouring wards in Harrow as the Conservatives topped the poll.
Clearly then this is another favourable boundary change for Labour as Tokyngton and Wembley Park are much more strongly in their favour than the Kingsbury/Queensbury area they replace. Broadly speaking the seat becomes less affluent and less Conservative the further South you go, and the boundary changes move the seat South. The one reliable Conservative ward in Brent is Kenton in the far North of this seat, still quite a wealthy area. Parts of Northwick Park, Preston and Barnhill are similar (Barnhill is a safe Labour ward due to the inclusion of the Chalkhill estate but the area North of Forty Lane – Barn Hill itself – is still quite desirable) although all these are the kind of areas where private renting has gone up massively at the expense of owner occupation – another demographic development which has hurt the Conservatives here as elsewhere.
Not that there was much threat to Labour’s position in the existing Brent North – at least not yet. This will have second highest proportion of Hindus in the country behind Leicester East and just ahead of Harrow East – two seats where Labour have underperformed lately as many Hindu voters are shifting their long-term allegiances. Labour can count on Barry Gardiner’s personal vote, the presence of many other, more reliable, ethnic minority voters, and the favourable national situation.
Absent the first two factors, things could shift again as they have before. On the new boundaries, this is the seat with the second lowest White British percentage in the country (less than 10%) and one does not need to even leave Brent to see how communal factors can cause wild and unexpected swings amongst South Asian origin voters.
