Brent East

[stb12]

Brent East

[Pete Whitehead]

Link to profile

Nov 22, 2023 22:02:06 GMT Robert Waller said:

2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)

Age 65+ 11.3% 524/575
Owner occupied 36.2% 551/575
Private rented 35.8% 32/575
Social rented 28.0% 42/575
White 38.0% 558/575
Black 21.7% 16/575
Asian 22.3% 50/575
Other 12.1% 3/575
Managerial & professional 26.8% 456/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.7% 353/575
Degree level 38.6% 137/575
No qualifications 22.3% 104/575
Students 10.5% 88/575


General Election 2019: Brent Central

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Labour Dawn Butler 31,779 64.7 -8.4
Conservative David Brescia 10,909 22.2 +2.7
Liberal Democrats Deborah Unger 4,844 9.9 +5.0
Green William Relton 1,600 3.3 +1.7

Lab Majority 20,870 42.5 -11.1

Turnout 49,132 58.3 -6.6

Labour hold
Swing 5.5 Lab to C



Boundary Changes
Brent East consists of
66.4% of Brent Central
11.5% of Brent North
10.6% of Hampstead & Highgate


Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_115_Brent%20East_Portrait.pdf


Notional result 2019 on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)

Lab	28100	63.8%
Con	10344	23.5%
LD	3972	9.0%
Grn	1426	3.2%
BxP	175	0.4%
Majority	17756	40.3%

Candidates:

Labour - Dawn Butler - incumbent MP for Brent Central
Conservative -  TBA
Lib Dem - Jonny Singh - candidate for Harrow & Brent GLA seat
Reform UK - TBA

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work

	Con	Lab	Lib	Com
1945	33.4%	56.7%	9.8%
1950	40.6%	49.0%	9.8%	0.7%
1951	46.1%	52.1%	1.8%
1955	47.9%	49.4%	2.7%
1959	49.5%	45.7%	3.7%	1.2%
1964	44.0%	50.7%	4.2%	1.2%
1966	36.9%	54.8%	6.5%	1.0%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP
1970	41.8%	54.7%	2.8%
1974	31.3%	48.7%	17.8%	1.9%
1974	31.2%	53.2%	11.8%	3.3%
1979	37.5%	52.3%	7.6%	2.0%
1983	35.3%	46.4%	17.2%
1987	38.9%	44.0%	14.5%
1992	37.9%	52.0%	8.4%

	Con	Lab	LD	Green	Ref/UKIP/ BXP
1997	24.4%	66.5%	6.7%
2001	19.4%	66.0%	9.0%	3.2%
2005	14.7%	46.4%	35.4%	2.7%
2010	15.7%	39.0%	41.8%	1.5%
2015	24.6%	58.6%	8.0%	4.1%	3.8%
2017	23.3%	69.4%	4.9%	1.4%	1.0%
2019	23.5%	63.8%	9.0%	3.2%	0.4%

[norflondon]

Ultra safe Labour hold for one of the Corbyn shadow team. Obviously a thumping majority but not by 20,000 like last time

Green Nida Alfulaij
Labour Dawn Butler
Independent Jenner Folwell
Reform Zbigniew Kowalczyk
Independent Amin Moafi
Workers James Mutimer
Conservative Jamila Robertson
Independent Aadil Shaikh
Liberal Dems Jonny Singh

[john07]

This seat’s voting pattern between 2010 and 2015 vividly demonsrates the impact of the coalition on Lib-Dem voting patterns.

I recall that during the period when Lib-Dem votes were rising in this seats coincided with them portraying themselves as to the left of Labour. The subsequent formation of the coalition and the real enthusiasm displayed by Clegg and Laws in particular was a major contributor.

[norflondon]

I hear or see "Brent East" and I see red.

Red Ken!

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Dawn Butler has released a campaign song.

[norflondon]

One of the more interesting Labour MPs,
Butler wins but drastically reduced margin of win, down 13%, and a v low turnout - sub 50%.