stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365 
Member is Online
|
Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:34:17 GMT
Bexleyheath and Crayford
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 25, 2024 21:41:29 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | | Con | Lab | Lib | Com | | | | | | | | 1945 | 31.4% | 63.0% | 5.6% | | | 1950 | 41.0% | 50.7% | 7.9% | 0.4% | | 1951 | 46.3% | 53.7% | | | | 1955 | 47.0% | 53.0% | | | | 1959 | 50.6% | 49.4% | | | | 1964 | 39.7% | 45.9% | 13.3% | | | 1966 | 41.0% | 49.8% | 8.6% | 0.6% |
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | | | 1970 | 48.4% | 47.2% | 2.8% | | | 1974 | 38.8% | 39.6% | 21.6% | | | 1974 | 39.5% | 44.3% | 16.2% | | | 1979 | 48.9% | 39.8% | 9.5% | 1.8% | | 1983 | 48.6% | 20.9% | 30.1% | 0.3% | | 1987 | 53.6% | 22.6% | 23.7% | | | 1992 | 54.5% | 32.1% | 13.2% | |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/
BXP | NF/BNP | Green | | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 38.7% | 46.4% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 1.0% | | | 2001 | 40.3% | 44.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | 3.2% | | | 2005 | 45.6% | 37.2% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | | | 2010 | 48.8% | 28.6% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 0.8% | | 2015 | 45.8% | 28.5% | 2.7% | 20.4% | | 2.1% | | 2017 | 55.3% | 36.1% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | | 2019 | 60.8% | 29.0% | 6.0% | 0.9% | | 2.3% |
|
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,580
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on May 31, 2024 15:45:41 GMT
Mark Brooks selected as Conservative candidate
|
|
|
|
Post by redtony on May 31, 2024 20:36:45 GMT
who is he
|
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on May 31, 2024 20:38:46 GMT
|
|
mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
|
Post by mondialito on Jun 8, 2024 19:39:35 GMT
Tom BRIGHT - Reform UK Mark James BROOKS - Conservative Party George EDGAR - Green Party Daniel FRANCIS - Labour Party David MCBRIDE - Liberal Democrats
|
|
mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
|
Post by mrtoad on Jul 8, 2024 23:06:27 GMT
Thought this was one of the more striking Labour gains, on a swing and Labour vote share increase higher than neighbouring seats including Dartford. I had rather thought that it would never come back, or else possibly eventually go Labour after demographic change. It would have voted very heavily for Susan Hall in the Mayoral election - quite possible more people voted for her in May than supported the Conservative candidate in July.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2024 2:27:24 GMT
1997 vs 2024
Labour 45.5% / 36.2%
Conservative 38.4% / 31.3%
Liberal Democrat 11.2% / 5.1%
Referendum / Reform 3.2% / 22.7%
Labour won by 7% then but <5% this time.
|
|
|
|
Post by ibfc on Jul 9, 2024 6:07:40 GMT
1997 vs 2024 Labour 45.5% / 36.2% Conservative 38.4% / 31.3% Liberal Democrat 11.2% / 5.1% Referendum / Reform 3.2% / 22.7% Labour won by 7% then but <5% this time. Surely using the notionals posted just upthread would make the comparison more meaningful than using the 1997 numbers? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2024 6:12:42 GMT
1997 vs 2024 Labour 45.5% / 36.2% Conservative 38.4% / 31.3% Liberal Democrat 11.2% / 5.1% Referendum / Reform 3.2% / 22.7% Labour won by 7% then but <5% this time. Surely using the notionals posted just upthread would make the comparison more meaningful than using the 1997 numbers? Actual election results > notional ones. But OK. Labour won by 8% in 1997 and 5% this time. I think the blues (probably with a new candidate) will win it back. |
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 9, 2024 9:33:21 GMT
Surely using the notionals posted just upthread would make the comparison more meaningful than using the 1997 numbers? Actual election results > notional ones. But OK. Labour won by 8% in 1997 and 5% this time. I think the blues (probably with a new candidate) will win it back. Nationals make more sense because the seat has changed. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2024 9:35:10 GMT
Actual election results > notional ones. But OK. Labour won by 8% in 1997 and 5% this time. I think the blues (probably with a new candidate) will win it back. Nationals make more sense because the seat has changed. But not that much. My point stands either way! Labour won this seat by a greater margin in 1997 than they did in 2024. so the Tories can expect to win it back. |
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 9, 2024 9:43:06 GMT
Nationals make more sense because the seat has changed. But not that much. My point stands either way! Labour won this seat by a greater margin in 1997 than they did in 2024. so the Tories can expect to win it back. Your comparing 2 elections 27 years apart, in very different political times to draw comparisons, its pointless. The Conservatives may be able to win this seat and many others in the future, but saying they can just because Labour won by less this time than in 1997 is awful, lazy, bad analysis. Come up with better reasons please, there are plenty to find. |
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jul 19, 2024 22:38:32 GMT
Massive drop in the electorate here to 57,359, seems a bit odd.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 19, 2024 22:47:04 GMT
The figure on the BBC website is 69,470 and that has a more consistent turnout figure. If you take the 57,359 electorate figure, then the turnout would be 75.8% which would be among the highest in the nation.
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
|
Post by Foggy on Jul 20, 2024 15:42:08 GMT
Once the Petitions Committee is reconstituted, we'll be able to look at the number of signatures per seat on a map for each petition, with a population estimate for each constituency from which you can try to calculate even rougher electorate figures.
|
|
