YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jun 12, 2024 20:49:14 GMT
There are two important ingredients for a Green gain here:
(a) the Greens managing to convince people that they are the main "progressive" challengers to the Tories in a General Election context
(b) a seriously bad national Tory performance
(b) may be happening, but is (a)? I suppose the Norman Lamb endorsement might give a hint, but are there any reports from the ground?
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 12, 2024 21:18:32 GMT
There are two important ingredients for a Green gain here: (a) the Greens managing to convince people that they are the main "progressive" challengers to the Tories in a General Election context (b) a seriously bad national Tory performance (b) may be happening, but is (a)? I suppose the Norman Lamb endorsement might give a hint, but are there any reports from the ground? I really have no idea, but I'd suggest that (a) the LDs aren't putting themselves forward here (b) I am told (not very reliably, but still) that locally Labour aren't doing much in this constituency - which would not be terribly surprising in this part of the world Obviously, absent anything else, you'd still expect Labour to be the main beneficiary of anti-Tory feeling (and you'd also doubt that would be enough to win them the seat) but it is possible that a strong Green Party ground game here could pre-empt that. IMO if the Greens win here it would be much more significant than a win in ether Brighton or Bristol, as in those cases a Green win is dependent on the electorate having already crushed the Tories into oblivion, so that the left-ish Green Party voter does not fear splitting the vote, whereas a win in Waveney would indicate that here the Green Party has stolen a march on both Labour and the Lib Dems (and done so using its local government base.) Like you, I'd love to hear any reports from the ground |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 13, 2024 16:09:55 GMT
There are two important ingredients for a Green gain here: (a) the Greens managing to convince people that they are the main "progressive" challengers to the Tories in a General Election context (b) a seriously bad national Tory performance (b) may be happening, but is (a)? I suppose the Norman Lamb endorsement might give a hint, but are there any reports from the ground? A few months ago I heard from someone involved with the (minor) Lib Dem campaign on the ground in Waveney Valley that it's very much a Tory vs Green race, with the Greens considerably behind the Tories but still able to make it somewhat competitive. I haven't heard from him since, but the steady decline in Conservative national polling since the election was called makes me think there's an increasingly high chance of a flip. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 18, 2024 17:11:35 GMT
The Ipsos MRP has an interesting take on this seat:
Green 33%
Reform UK 29%
Con 23%
Lab 10%
Lib Dem 4%
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 18, 2024 17:52:33 GMT
The Ipsos MRP has an interesting take on this seat: Green 33% Reform UK 29% Con 23% Lab 10% Lib Dem 4% The way MRPs project onto the demographic of the seat, but don't account for how ground campaigns and smaller parties can win over voters from all sorts of places, maybe means that Reform share is way too high? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 18, 2024 18:39:23 GMT
The Ipsos MRP has an interesting take on this seat: Green 33% Reform UK 29% Con 23% Lab 10% Lib Dem 4% The way MRPs project onto the demographic of the seat, but don't account for how ground campaigns and smaller parties can win over voters from all sorts of places, maybe means that Reform share is way too high? They must take accoutn of the ground campaign, otherwise why would the Green vote be so high here? |
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Post by Johncrane on Jun 18, 2024 18:48:28 GMT
I think it would be interesting to see the notional result of this seat in 2015 and cross reference the UKIP vote with the reform vote in this MRP
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jdc
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Post by jdc on Jun 18, 2024 18:50:06 GMT
The way MRPs project onto the demographic of the seat, but don't account for how ground campaigns and smaller parties can win over voters from all sorts of places, maybe means that Reform share is way too high? They must take accoutn of the ground campaign, otherwise why would the Green vote be so high here? Could be local election results. Greens were the largest party at the 2023 elections. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 18, 2024 18:57:21 GMT
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 18, 2024 19:01:33 GMT
They must take accoutn of the ground campaign, otherwise why would the Green vote be so high here? Could be local election results. Greens were the largest party at the 2023 elections. Yes. MRPs do much more than project according to demographic, I was just highlighting one aspect. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 18, 2024 19:49:47 GMT
The Ipsos MRP has an interesting take on this seat: Green 33% Reform UK 29% Con 23% Lab 10% Lib Dem 4% That could produce some interesting bar charts and tactical squeeze messages... |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Jun 18, 2024 19:52:56 GMT
The Ipsos MRP has an interesting take on this seat: Green 33% Reform UK 29% Con 23% Lab 10% Lib Dem 4% That could produce some interesting bar charts and tactical squeeze messages... Only Reform can stop the Greens here! |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 18, 2024 20:00:36 GMT
That could produce some interesting bar charts and tactical squeeze messages... Only Reform can stop the Greens here! ho ho.  |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 18, 2024 20:03:32 GMT
The Survation MRP had Labour ahead here with Greens in 4th place!
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Post by greenhert on Jun 18, 2024 20:33:40 GMT
The Survation MRP had Labour ahead here with Greens in 4th place! And we know how reliable Survation MRP polls are-about as reliable as a used Alfa Romeo. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 18, 2024 20:35:23 GMT
The Survation MRP had Labour ahead here with Greens in 4th place! And we know how reliable Survation MRP polls are-about as reliable as a used Alfa Romeo. I am not really persuaded by any of the MRP surveys we have seen. |
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Jun 18, 2024 20:41:57 GMT
The Survation MRP had Labour ahead here with Greens in 4th place! And we know how reliable Survation MRP polls are-about as reliable as a used Alfa Romeo. I think Graham is hitting on a reasonable point - not just in this constituency but across the country. We now have something like 10 different semi-serious models and projections from various pollsters and so on, most of which show essentially the same for about 300 boring seats, and for every other seat you can basically pick your preferred outcome and put it on your leaflet. I'm not sure these mrps add as much signal to the discussion as might be hoped, though they certainly add noise. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 20, 2024 18:46:34 GMT
www.bbc.com/news/articles/cyxx742dgv1o"Standing for the Liberal Democrats is 64-year-old businessman John Shreeve. He said he was pleased to see former Liberal Democrat minister, Norman Lamb, back his opponent, Mr Ramsay in the campaign." !!
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 21, 2024 6:24:50 GMT
We Think poll for the Greens, reported in the Guardian:
Green 23, Con 15, Lab 11, Reform 10, Lib Dem 4, won't vote 2, don't know 34
(obvious caveats are obvious)
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 21, 2024 6:32:28 GMT
www.bbc.com/news/articles/cyxx742dgv1o"Standing for the Liberal Democrats is 64-year-old businessman John Shreeve. He said he was pleased to see former Liberal Democrat minister, Norman Lamb, back his opponent, Mr Ramsay in the campaign." !! He's saying that because there's no such thing as bad publicity. Oh but there is. (It's interesting and surprising how often successful businessmen make bad politicians, and this may be one reason) |
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