South West Hertfordshire

[stb12]

South West Hertfordshire

[Pete Whitehead]

Link to profile

Feb 16, 2024 23:27:51 GMT Robert Waller said:

2021 Census, new boundaries

Age 65+ 18.3% 327/575
Owner occupied 71.8% 130/575
Private rented 13.4% 509/575
Social rented 14.8% 301/575
White 77.8% 426/575
Black 2.3% 219/575
Asian 14.6% 99/575
Managerial & professional 43.7% 56/575
Routine & Semi-routine 15.1% 524/575
Degree level 42.6% 85/575
No qualifications 13.4% 492/575
Students 6.0% 237/575

2019 General Election

Con	30,327	49.6%
Ind	15,919	26.0%
Lab	7,228	11.8%
LD	6,251	10.2%
Grn	1,466	2.4%
Majority	14,408	23.5%

Boundary Changes
South West Hertfordshire consists of
56.1% of South West Hertfordshire
22.6% of Watford
5.4% of Hemel Hempstead
4.3% of St Albans


Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_095_South%20West%20Hertfordshire_Landscape.pdf

Notional result 2019 (Rallings / Thrasher)

Con	26548	52.2%
Ind	8925	17.5%
Lab	8182	16.1%
LD	6460	12.7%
Grn	763	1.5%
Maj	17623	34.6%

Candidates:

Conservative - Gagan Mohindra (incumbent)
Labour - Alex Sufit
Lib Dem - Sally Symington - County councillor for Tring and Dacorum borough councillor for Berkhamsted West
Refordm UK - TBA

[mattb]

Mar 18, 2024 16:06:50 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Link to profileCandidates:

Conservative - Gagan Mohindra (incumbent)
Labour - Alex Sufit
Lib Dem - Sally Symington - County councillor for Tring and Dacorum borough councillor for Berkhamsted West
Refordm UK - TBA

Narinder Sian (district cllr for Dickinson ward) is The Green Party PPC

[Pete Whitehead]

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF
1974	42.6%	31.7%	25.7%
1974	43.2%	35.3%	21.5%
1979	54.2%	30.6%	13.8%	1.4%
1983	51.0%	15.2%	33.3%
1987	53.2%	16.6%	30.2%
1992	54.3%	20.7%	24.5%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP/ BXP	Grn	Ind
1997	42.7%	32.1%	21.6%	3.1%
2001	40.9%	31.5%	24.8%	1.8%
2005	42.4%	24.3%	30.0%	2.4%
2010	49.7%	14.0%	29.9%	2.5%
2015	54.6%	17.1%	12.4%	11.7%	3.7%
2017	56.2%	28.8%	10.8%	2.1%	2.1%
2019	52.2%	16.1%	12.7%		1.5%	17.5%

[hempie]

cdn.threerivers.gov.uk/files/2024/06/5e97e870-24e1-11ef-9a6c-c501475eb4dc-Statement%20of%20Persons%20Nominated%20and%20Notice%20of%20Poll%20SW%20HERTS.pdf

9 candidates:
Con
Lab
Lib Dem
Green
Reform
SDP
Party of Women
UK Voice
Rejoin EU

[mattb]

Jun 8, 2024 17:58:42 GMT swingometer said:

Lab gain

Nope

[batman]

a ) even the current polls are not, on average, suggesting as big a swing as this b ) Labour only has local strength in South Oxhey. c ) Labour will prioritise nearby seats heavily ahead of this one. It's not impossible but there has been nothing to suggest a surprise Labour gain here

[YL]

Jun 8, 2024 19:04:30 GMT batman said:

a ) even the current polls are not, on average, suggesting as big a swing as this b ) Labour only has local strength in South Oxhey. c ) Labour will prioritise nearby seats heavily ahead of this one. It's not impossible but there has been nothing to suggest a surprise Labour gain here

Some of the models (including, curiously, the More In Common MRP, which was the least promising for Labour of the MRPs) show it as Labour. But, as with other constituencies with strong "Other" performances I'm not sure that they're handling Gauke's vote from last time very well.

[Deleted]

I reckon if Gauke hadn't stood a lot of his vote might have gone to the Lib Dems. If they'd come second in 2019 with c25%, they'd start in a much stronger position. 

[heslingtonian]

Isn't this basically Three Rivers District Council with traditionally Tory Kings Langley added on. If anyone is going to defeat the Conservatives here it will be the Lib Dems. On balance, I'd say a narrow Conservative hold is the most likely outcome.

[Pete Whitehead]

This was one of the Conservatives' better results. It was difficlut to call this because of the Gauke vote affecting the notional - suppresing the Lib Dem vote especially one would think, but also Labour and the Tories a bit. Some of the early scenarios on the BBC appeared to show this as a Labour gain based on the exit poll. I struggled to see how Labour could pull ahead here given their strengh is limited to South Oxhey (though I imagine they take plenty of votes in the Langleys in a general election, in a good year.) Stranger things have happened though (Poole, Isle of Wight West etc)
By rights perhaps this should have joined the swathe of home counties seats that fell to the Lib Dems. Obviously they went all in on Harpenden & Berkhamsted and also had to worry about Chesham & Amersham next door. But spreading themselves around didn't hurt them in Surrey or Berkshire or Oxon. This part of Hertfordshire is very much the South East rather than the East of England.
Lib Dem local strength has never cut a lot of ice in general elections before now, but there's a lot of places like that, where suddenly in 2024 it did..

[rr]

I suspect the Hindu Indian vote assisted the Conservatives here as in Harrow East. Moor Park is one of most prestigious Indian areas in the UK these days.

[ColinJ]

Jul 11, 2024 23:22:28 GMT rr said:

I suspect the Hindu Indian vote assisted the Conservatives here as in Harrow East. Moor Park is one of most prestigious Indian areas in the UK these days.

In all honesty 90% of residents of Moor Park "assist the Conservative vote", always have and probably always will, whatever their ethnic background or religion!

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 12, 2024 11:23:47 GMT ColinJ said:

Jul 11, 2024 23:22:28 GMT rr said:

I suspect the Hindu Indian vote assisted the Conservatives here as in Harrow East. Moor Park is one of most prestigious Indian areas in the UK these days.

In all honesty 90% of residents of Moor Park "assist the Conservative vote", always have and probably always will, whatever their ethnic background or religion!

Yes that's true but Moor Park is a small part of the seat overall. I don't doubt the non-negligible Hindu vote here was a factor (significant in parts of Chorleywood, Loudwater etc too) but wouldn't be enough on it's own. Perhaps the new MP (of whom i've heard little since his initial election, but then why would I?) has been particularly assiduous.
You've hinted yourself at some disfunction within the Lib Dem group and we are seeing suggestions of this lately in the defections and local by-election threads. This might explain why the Lib Dems themselves were unable to capitalise here on national Tory woes in a way they managed in many similar home counties seats.