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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:25:15 GMT
South West Hertfordshire
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 18, 2024 16:06:50 GMT
Link to profile2021 Census, new boundariesAge 65+ 18.3% 327/575 Owner occupied 71.8% 130/575 Private rented 13.4% 509/575 Social rented 14.8% 301/575 White 77.8% 426/575 Black 2.3% 219/575 Asian 14.6% 99/575 Managerial & professional 43.7% 56/575 Routine & Semi-routine 15.1% 524/575 Degree level 42.6% 85/575 No qualifications 13.4% 492/575 Students 6.0% 237/575 2019 General Election Con | 30,327 | 49.6% | Ind | 15,919 | 26.0% | Lab | 7,228 | 11.8% | LD | 6,251 | 10.2% | Grn | 1,466 | 2.4% | | | | Majority | 14,408 | 23.5% |
Boundary ChangesSouth West Hertfordshire consists of 56.1% of South West Hertfordshire 22.6% of Watford 5.4% of Hemel Hempstead 4.3% of St Albans Mapboundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_095_South%20West%20Hertfordshire_Landscape.pdf Notional result 2019 (Rallings / Thrasher) Con | 26548 | 52.2% | Ind | 8925 | 17.5% | Lab | 8182 | 16.1% | LD | 6460 | 12.7% | Grn | 763 | 1.5% | | | | | | | |
| | Maj | 17623 | 34.6% |
Candidates: Conservative - Gagan Mohindra (incumbent) Labour - Alex SufitLib Dem - Sally Symington - County councillor for Tring and Dacorum borough councillor for Berkhamsted West Refordm UK - TBA
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Post by mattb on Mar 18, 2024 21:02:18 GMT
Narinder Sian (district cllr for Dickinson ward) is The Green Party PPC
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 27, 2024 9:20:59 GMT
| Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF |
| | | | | | | | | 1974 | 42.6% | 31.7% | 25.7% | | | | 1974 | 43.2% | 35.3% | 21.5% | | | | 1979 | 54.2% | 30.6% | 13.8% | 1.4% | | | 1983 | 51.0% | 15.2% | 33.3% | | | | 1987 | 53.2% | 16.6% | 30.2% | | | | 1992 | 54.3% | 20.7% | 24.5% | | | |
| Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/ BXP | Grn | Ind | | | | | | | | 1997 | 42.7% | 32.1% | 21.6% | 3.1% | | | 2001 | 40.9% | 31.5% | 24.8% | 1.8% | | | 2005 | 42.4% | 24.3% | 30.0% | 2.4% | | | 2010 | 49.7% | 14.0% | 29.9% | 2.5% | | | 2015 | 54.6% | 17.1% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 3.7% | | 2017 | 56.2% | 28.8% | 10.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | | 2019 | 52.2% | 16.1% | 12.7% | | 1.5% | 17.5% |
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Post by hempie on Jun 7, 2024 16:35:20 GMT
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Post by swingometer on Jun 8, 2024 17:58:42 GMT
Lab gain
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Post by mattb on Jun 8, 2024 18:41:39 GMT
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Post by swingometer on Jun 8, 2024 18:42:01 GMT
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Post by batman on Jun 8, 2024 19:04:30 GMT
a ) even the current polls are not, on average, suggesting as big a swing as this b ) Labour only has local strength in South Oxhey. c ) Labour will prioritise nearby seats heavily ahead of this one. It's not impossible but there has been nothing to suggest a surprise Labour gain here
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,843
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Post by YL on Jun 8, 2024 19:42:27 GMT
a ) even the current polls are not, on average, suggesting as big a swing as this b ) Labour only has local strength in South Oxhey. c ) Labour will prioritise nearby seats heavily ahead of this one. It's not impossible but there has been nothing to suggest a surprise Labour gain here Some of the models (including, curiously, the More In Common MRP, which was the least promising for Labour of the MRPs) show it as Labour. But, as with other constituencies with strong "Other" performances I'm not sure that they're handling Gauke's vote from last time very well.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2024 19:45:04 GMT
I reckon if Gauke hadn't stood a lot of his vote might have gone to the Lib Dems. If they'd come second in 2019 with c25%, they'd start in a much stronger position.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 10, 2024 8:15:12 GMT
Isn't this basically Three Rivers District Council with traditionally Tory Kings Langley added on. If anyone is going to defeat the Conservatives here it will be the Lib Dems. On balance, I'd say a narrow Conservative hold is the most likely outcome.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 5, 2024 11:28:12 GMT
This was one of the Conservatives' better results. It was difficlut to call this because of the Gauke vote affecting the notional - suppresing the Lib Dem vote especially one would think, but also Labour and the Tories a bit. Some of the early scenarios on the BBC appeared to show this as a Labour gain based on the exit poll. I struggled to see how Labour could pull ahead here given their strengh is limited to South Oxhey (though I imagine they take plenty of votes in the Langleys in a general election, in a good year.) Stranger things have happened though (Poole, Isle of Wight West etc) By rights perhaps this should have joined the swathe of home counties seats that fell to the Lib Dems. Obviously they went all in on Harpenden & Berkhamsted and also had to worry about Chesham & Amersham next door. But spreading themselves around didn't hurt them in Surrey or Berkshire or Oxon. This part of Hertfordshire is very much the South East rather than the East of England. Lib Dem local strength has never cut a lot of ice in general elections before now, but there's a lot of places like that, where suddenly in 2024 it did..
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rr
Non-Aligned
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Post by rr on Jul 11, 2024 23:22:28 GMT
I suspect the Hindu Indian vote assisted the Conservatives here as in Harrow East. Moor Park is one of most prestigious Indian areas in the UK these days.
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,110
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Post by ColinJ on Jul 12, 2024 11:23:47 GMT
I suspect the Hindu Indian vote assisted the Conservatives here as in Harrow East. Moor Park is one of most prestigious Indian areas in the UK these days. In all honesty 90% of residents of Moor Park "assist the Conservative vote", always have and probably always will, whatever their ethnic background or religion!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 12, 2024 11:39:23 GMT
I suspect the Hindu Indian vote assisted the Conservatives here as in Harrow East. Moor Park is one of most prestigious Indian areas in the UK these days. In all honesty 90% of residents of Moor Park "assist the Conservative vote", always have and probably always will, whatever their ethnic background or religion! Yes that's true but Moor Park is a small part of the seat overall. I don't doubt the non-negligible Hindu vote here was a factor (significant in parts of Chorleywood, Loudwater etc too) but wouldn't be enough on it's own. Perhaps the new MP (of whom i've heard little since his initial election, but then why would I?) has been particularly assiduous. You've hinted yourself at some disfunction within the Lib Dem group and we are seeing suggestions of this lately in the defections and local by-election threads. This might explain why the Lib Dems themselves were unable to capitalise here on national Tory woes in a way they managed in many similar home counties seats.
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