North West Essex

[iain]

I’d imagine the local Labour Party ran an active campaign given the opponent whereas the local Lib Dems basically did nothing and went to help in Chelmsford. An interesting result to be sure, but hardly one which requires an enormous amount of explanation.

[evergreenadam]

Sept 6, 2024 6:21:01 GMT nyx said:

It has only just struck me how truly bizarre the result was here. It is worth comparing the electoral history of Saffron Walden to that of Chichester as the two constituencies are actually near-identical: they both voted to leave the EU by 51% to 49%, the top three candidates in each constituency have been the same all the way back to 1964 (!) - 2019 Con, LD, Lab in that order; 2017 Con, Lab, LD in that order; 2015 Con, UKIP, Lab in that order; 2010 Con, LD, Lab in that order, and so on... with fairly similar margins in each case.

Both constituencies have no Labour local election presence but mostly just Conservatives, Lib Dems, and independents.

Under the new boundaries, the notional 2019 result in Chichester was Con 58.8%, LD 20.3%, Lab 15.4%. The notional result in North West Essex was Con 61.7%, LD 19.7%, Lab 13.8%. Conservatives marginally stronger, Labour marginally weaker, but close to identical. Both constituencies had high-profile Conservative MPs.

Chichester: as you'd expect, the Lib Dems put up a local councillor as a candidate, squeeze the third-place Labour vote, and win.

North West Essex: the Lib Dems put up a local councillor as a candidate, try to squeeze the third-place Labour vote, and... drop half of their votes, come in fourth place, whilst Labour's 21-year-old candidate from Suffolk brings the party from nowhere to nearly winning the seat? Despite Labour's directing of resources away from non-priority seats.

This was one of only ten constituencies nationally in which the Lib Dems finished second to the Conservatives in 2019 and at least 5% ahead of Labour, but did not win this year. The others being Godalming and Ash, Farnham and Bordon, Romsey and Southampton North, East Hampshire, North Dorset, East Hampshire, East Surrey, East Grinstead and Uckfield, and Sevenoaks. In most of those, they came a strong second place this year.

Was Issy Waite an unusually outstanding campaigner, Smita Rajesh unusually poor, or both? Or some other explanation?

You put East Hampshire down twice, which seat is missing from the list?

[nyx]

Sept 7, 2024 15:55:22 GMT evergreenadam said:

Sept 6, 2024 6:21:01 GMT nyx said:

It has only just struck me how truly bizarre the result was here. It is worth comparing the electoral history of Saffron Walden to that of Chichester as the two constituencies are actually near-identical: they both voted to leave the EU by 51% to 49%, the top three candidates in each constituency have been the same all the way back to 1964 (!) - 2019 Con, LD, Lab in that order; 2017 Con, Lab, LD in that order; 2015 Con, UKIP, Lab in that order; 2010 Con, LD, Lab in that order, and so on... with fairly similar margins in each case.

Both constituencies have no Labour local election presence but mostly just Conservatives, Lib Dems, and independents.

Under the new boundaries, the notional 2019 result in Chichester was Con 58.8%, LD 20.3%, Lab 15.4%. The notional result in North West Essex was Con 61.7%, LD 19.7%, Lab 13.8%. Conservatives marginally stronger, Labour marginally weaker, but close to identical. Both constituencies had high-profile Conservative MPs.

Chichester: as you'd expect, the Lib Dems put up a local councillor as a candidate, squeeze the third-place Labour vote, and win.

North West Essex: the Lib Dems put up a local councillor as a candidate, try to squeeze the third-place Labour vote, and... drop half of their votes, come in fourth place, whilst Labour's 21-year-old candidate from Suffolk brings the party from nowhere to nearly winning the seat? Despite Labour's directing of resources away from non-priority seats.

This was one of only ten constituencies nationally in which the Lib Dems finished second to the Conservatives in 2019 and at least 5% ahead of Labour, but did not win this year. The others being Godalming and Ash, Farnham and Bordon, Romsey and Southampton North, East Hampshire, North Dorset, East Hampshire, East Surrey, East Grinstead and Uckfield, and Sevenoaks. In most of those, they came a strong second place this year.

Was Issy Waite an unusually outstanding campaigner, Smita Rajesh unusually poor, or both? Or some other explanation?

You put East Hampshire down twice, which seat is missing from the list?

Oops. Hamble Valley

[Andrew_S]

I was thinking it might be interesting to see a list of seats where Labour got a higher share of the vote in 2024 compared to 1997 despite getting around 10 percentage points less support overall (if it was possible to compare the constituencies despite the various boundary changes). This seat would probably be one of them since they got 30.8% compared to 21.5% in Saffron Walden in 1997 and don't think the boundary changes have been that significant.

[nyx]

Sept 8, 2024 0:58:59 GMT Andrew_S said:

I was thinking it might be interesting to see a list of seats where Labour got a higher share of the vote in 2024 compared to 1997 despite getting around 10 percentage points less support overall (if it was possible to compare the constituencies despite the various boundary changes). This seat would probably be one of them since they got 30.8% compared to 21.5% in Saffron Walden in 1997 and don't think the boundary changes have been that significant.

I suspect there will be a lot, mostly be in the South/East Anglia- as well as former Lib Dem strongholds where they've since weakened. Aylesbury, South East Cornwall, Worthing West, Canterbury, Hazel Grove, etc

[East Anglian Lefty]

When looking at the Lib Dem lack of effort here, you have to remember that targeting for them usually requires resources to be directed from outside. And given that the LDs were targeting 3 seats in Cambridgeshire plus Chelmsford, this seat was always going to struggle for attention.

[ColinJ]

Postal voting error 'was avoidable', review finds www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2ekww3ygypo

[Harry Hayfield]

Uttlesford messed up www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2ekww3ygypo

[batman]

same link that Colin shared a few days ago. But yes they did mess up.

[sanders]

Bellicose, brash Badenoch's bad epoch beckons?

[batman]

tend to think that's less likely now. This could well scupper her. She hasn't handled this well at all. All this out of context bollocks.

[sanders]

Sept 30, 2024 11:02:32 GMT batman said:

tend to think that's less likely now. This could well scupper her. She hasn't handled this well at all. All this out of context bollocks.

Cheap, imitation, ersatz Thatcher tribute act. She would crash and burn, honestly. Maybe good for your party then? 

[aargauer]

Oct 7, 2024 4:11:23 GMT sanders said:

Sept 30, 2024 11:02:32 GMT batman said:

tend to think that's less likely now. This could well scupper her. She hasn't handled this well at all. All this out of context bollocks.

Cheap, imitation, ersatz Thatcher tribute act. She would crash and burn, honestly. Maybe good for your party then? 

You have to remember that everything she does now, is an act for the Tory membership. I remember when she was an urban one nation Tory in Wimbledon Village.

If she wins, she'll pivot.

[sanders]

Oct 7, 2024 4:17:15 GMT aargauer said:

Oct 7, 2024 4:11:23 GMT sanders said:

Cheap, imitation, ersatz Thatcher tribute act. She would crash and burn, honestly. Maybe good for your party then? 

You have to remember that everything she does now, is an act for the Tory membership. I remember when she was an urban one nation Tory in Wimbledon Village.

If she wins, she'll pivot.

You trust a word she says? One shouldn't need to pivot, really. The MPs aren't that right wing. Nor are the members actually, IIRC. 

[aargauer]

Oct 7, 2024 4:19:18 GMT sanders said:

Oct 7, 2024 4:17:15 GMT aargauer said:

You have to remember that everything she does now, is an act for the Tory membership. I remember when she was an urban one nation Tory in Wimbledon Village.

If she wins, she'll pivot.

You trust a word she says? One shouldn't need to pivot, really. The MPs aren't that right wing. Nor are the members actually, IIRC. 

I know her personally so it's a bit different. I'm a supporter, but if I'm honest, I think Cleverly would probably beat Starmer, - simply much more likeable. I doubt she would.

Anyone but Jenrick. (I know his wife vaguely - worked with her in a US law firm - but not never met him).

[sanders]

Oct 7, 2024 4:23:26 GMT aargauer said:

Oct 7, 2024 4:19:18 GMT sanders said:

You trust a word she says? One shouldn't need to pivot, really. The MPs aren't that right wing. Nor are the members actually, IIRC. 

I know her personally so it's a bit different. I'm a supporter, but if I'm honest, I think Cleverly would probably beat Starmer, - simply much more likeable. I doubt she would.

Anyone but Jenrick. (I know his wife vaguely - worked with her in a US law firm - but not never met him).

I don't think either are great. If I was a Tory, I'd back Tugendhat. He just seems like David Cameron and a good foil for Starmer. He's got the military experience like Cleverly (not that I give a hoot about it, and being in the army is a career choice that doesn't qualify people for all that much in public life, but that's by the bye), but he's just more moderate in how he conveys his message. The last Tory leaders with no university education (Major, IDS) weren't exactly adverts for that sort of DEI. 

[aargauer]

Oct 7, 2024 4:29:11 GMT sanders said:

Oct 7, 2024 4:23:26 GMT aargauer said:

I know her personally so it's a bit different. I'm a supporter, but if I'm honest, I think Cleverly would probably beat Starmer, - simply much more likeable. I doubt she would.

Anyone but Jenrick. (I know his wife vaguely - worked with her in a US law firm - but not never met him).

I don't think either are great. If I was a Tory, I'd back Tugendhat. He just seems like David Cameron and a good foil for Starmer. He's got the military experience like Cleverly (not that I give a hoot about it, and being in the army is a career choice that doesn't qualify people for all that much in public life, but that's by the bye), but he's just more moderate in how he conveys his message. The last Tory leaders with no university education (Major, IDS) weren't exactly adverts for that sort of DEI. 

Cleverly isn't a genius, political or otherwise but he comes across as a normal human.

We don't need to be great to give Starmer a run for his money - just not as contemptible as we are now.

He's still the same politician that got hammered in Hartlepool. Europe wide social democracy is in a lot of trouble, and he's a north London stereotype automaton with a ridiculous name.

But at present the Tory party would struggle to beat a Dawn Butler led Labour Party.

The first step is not be liked or even respected, it's just to not be loathed. Labour are probably going to do the rest - it's surprising just how badly the mood has started and the self inflicted wounds are already adding up. If we got 30% we'd probably force Labour into a lib / lab coalition which would decimate the liberals again. Relative success is there at relatively low shares of the vote.

[john07]

Sept 8, 2024 2:55:18 GMT nyx said:

Sept 8, 2024 0:58:59 GMT Andrew_S said:

I was thinking it might be interesting to see a list of seats where Labour got a higher share of the vote in 2024 compared to 1997 despite getting around 10 percentage points less support overall (if it was possible to compare the constituencies despite the various boundary changes). This seat would probably be one of them since they got 30.8% compared to 21.5% in Saffron Walden in 1997 and don't think the boundary changes have been that significant.

I suspect there will be a lot, mostly be in the South/East Anglia- as well as former Lib Dem strongholds where they've since weakened. Aylesbury, South East Cornwall, Worthing West, Canterbury, Hazel Grove, etc

The revised boundaries had a role in the Labour advance in Hazel Grove. Over the years since 1974, the two Bramhall wards have been transferred to Cheadle, and more Labour friendly Wards such as Offerton, Great Moor and finally Manor have come in from Stockport.

There was always tactical voting by Labour sympathisers for the Liberals/Lib Dems from the formation of the Constiuency and before in the Cheadle seats. This has potential to unwind in the future now that Labour are in second place.

[carlton43]

Oct 7, 2024 4:23:26 GMT aargauer said:

Oct 7, 2024 4:19:18 GMT sanders said:

You trust a word she says? One shouldn't need to pivot, really. The MPs aren't that right wing. Nor are the members actually, IIRC. 

I know her personally so it's a bit different. I'm a supporter, but if I'm honest, I think Cleverly would probably beat Starmer, - simply much more likeable. I doubt she would.

Anyone but Jenrick. (I know his wife vaguely - worked with her in a US law firm - but not never met him).

"You know her 'personally'"!

Is there any other way of 'knowing' either demotically or philosophically?

That sort of tendentious and essentially meaningless phrase is often used by people who don't really know them at all but just lived in their constituency, attended some events where they were present, talked occasionally and briefly to them.

To be a personal acquaintance one is an actual friend/colleague/neighbour.  Do you speak to her frequently, exchange emails often, write her letters, exchange PCs and Christmas cards?

[aargauer]

Oct 7, 2024 11:58:41 GMT carlton43 said:

Oct 7, 2024 4:23:26 GMT aargauer said:

I know her personally so it's a bit different. I'm a supporter, but if I'm honest, I think Cleverly would probably beat Starmer, - simply much more likeable. I doubt she would.

Anyone but Jenrick. (I know his wife vaguely - worked with her in a US law firm - but not never met him).

"You know her 'personally'"!

Is there any other way of 'knowing' either demotically or philosophically?

That sort of tendentious and essentially meaningless phrase is often used by people who don't really know them at all but just lived in their constituency, attended some events where they were present, talked occasionally and briefly to them.

To be a personal acquaintance one is an actual friend/colleague/neighbour.  Do you speak to her frequently, exchange emails often, write her letters, exchange PCs and Christmas cards?

I spoke quite frequently - before she was famous / an MP, we were in the same local conservative group (Wandsworth and Wimbledon). Every few weeks for years. Not spoken since I moved to Switzerland - I'm not trying to say she's a close friend, just that I have an insight in what makes her tick, and her already existing "flip".

I've never been a constituent of hers.