It has only just struck me how truly bizarre the result was here. It is worth comparing the electoral history of Saffron Walden to that of Chichester as the two constituencies are actually near-identical: they both voted to leave the EU by 51% to 49%, the top three candidates in each constituency have been the same all the way back to 1964 (!) - 2019 Con, LD, Lab in that order; 2017 Con, Lab, LD in that order; 2015 Con, UKIP, Lab in that order; 2010 Con, LD, Lab in that order, and so on... with fairly similar margins in each case.
Both constituencies have no Labour local election presence but mostly just Conservatives, Lib Dems, and independents.
Under the new boundaries, the notional 2019 result in Chichester was Con 58.8%, LD 20.3%, Lab 15.4%. The notional result in North West Essex was Con 61.7%, LD 19.7%, Lab 13.8%. Conservatives marginally stronger, Labour marginally weaker, but close to identical. Both constituencies had high-profile Conservative MPs.
Chichester: as you'd expect, the Lib Dems put up a local councillor as a candidate, squeeze the third-place Labour vote, and win.
North West Essex: the Lib Dems put up a local councillor as a candidate, try to squeeze the third-place Labour vote, and... drop half of their votes, come in fourth place, whilst Labour's 21-year-old candidate from Suffolk brings the party from nowhere to nearly winning the seat? Despite Labour's directing of resources away from non-priority seats.
This was one of only ten constituencies nationally in which the Lib Dems finished second to the Conservatives in 2019 and at least 5% ahead of Labour, but did not win this year. The others being Godalming and Ash, Farnham and Bordon, Romsey and Southampton North, East Hampshire, North Dorset, East Hampshire, East Surrey, East Grinstead and Uckfield, and Sevenoaks. In most of those, they came a strong second place this year.
Was Issy Waite an unusually outstanding campaigner, Smita Rajesh unusually poor, or both? Or some other explanation?