stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:20:45 GMT
North Norfolk
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 16, 2024 8:18:56 GMT
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 4, 2024 20:13:49 GMT
Liberal Democrats - Steff Aquarone
Conservative - Duncan Baker
Labour - Cathy Cordiner- Archerbach
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 5, 2024 16:53:34 GMT
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD |
| Grn | | | | | | | | | 1974 | 46.0% | 30.8% | 23.3% | | | | 1974 | 46.5% | 34.1% | 19.5% | | | | 1979 | 55.2% | 30.3% | 13.9% | | | | 1983 | 54.5% | 18.1% | 27.4% | | | | 1987 | 53.9% | 18.8% | 25.5% | | 1.8% | | 1992 | 48.7% | 22.2% | 28.0% | | 0.9% |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP
/BXP | Grn |
| | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 37.3% | 23.5% | 35.0% | 4.2% | | | | 2001 | 41.8% | 12.4% | 43.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | | | 2005 | 36.2% | 8.7% | 53.3% | 1.7% | | | | 2010 | 32.2% | 5.9% | 55.5% | 5.4% | 1.0% | | | 2015 | 31.0% | 10.2% | 38.8% | 16.9% | 3.0% | | | 2017 | 41.8% | 10.0% | 48.1% | | | | | 2019 | 58.5% | 7.7% | 30.4% | 3.4% | | |
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carolus
Lib Dem
Posts: 5,733
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Post by carolus on Jun 7, 2024 15:21:05 GMT
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Post by froome on Jul 3, 2024 16:58:21 GMT
Absolutely no discussion of this one? I'm surprised to see the Conservatives are favoured to win in our poll. Have the Lib Dems collapsed that much here?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 3, 2024 17:14:04 GMT
Absolutely no discussion of this one? I'm surprised to see the Conservatives are favoured to win in our poll. Have the Lib Dems collapsed that much here? Whilst the MPRs are favourable, I think the absence of the former MP probably meant a lot of the local machinery ground to a halt. The seat voted for leave and saw substantial and sustained increases in raw tory votes in 2017 and 2019 - the earlier can be attributed to no UKIP. Whilst I'd like the Lib Dems to regain this, I think it would have to be a very very good night to win back this seat. |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 3, 2024 19:17:07 GMT
Absolutely no discussion of this one? I'm surprised to see the Conservatives are favoured to win in our poll. Have the Lib Dems collapsed that much here? If they do win it by virtue of being second last time and suppressing the Labour surge (if any here) then it would be vindication for the Lib Dems decision to not really talk much about stopping Brexit in this campaign. Otherwise this could become a Southport - not this time, but Labour coming into a strong second could finish off the LDs here for a while. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 4, 2024 9:20:00 GMT
The LDs still hold the local council - and whilst they lost seats in 2023, they still topped the poll fairly comfortably - so I doubt that their local machinery is entirely atrophied.
In any case, this seat is entirely dissimilar to Southport, which is a seat that had plenty of voters who demographically resembled people who are reliable Labour voters elsewhere, but in Southport didn't vote Labour prior to 2017. Labour does poorly in North Norfolk not for historical reasons, but because it's simply the sort of area with the sort of voters that we don't do particularly well with even in good years.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,139
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Post by cogload on Jul 7, 2024 17:07:45 GMT
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jul 8, 2024 4:42:35 GMT
Am I misremembering it being over 20k? This seat was to the LDs as Bassetlaw was to Labour, lost on an overwhelmingly crushing swing in 2019 due to retirement + Brexit-related factors, then clawed back in 2024. Except here at least the outgoing MP in 2019 didn't endorse your opponents. Though Baker did publicly back a nearby Green candidate this year. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 4:47:24 GMT
I thought this was going going gonzo for the Lib Dems after the 2019 result, but they managed it. I think the cost-of-living crisis have driven the elderly into LD arms.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 8, 2024 5:37:44 GMT
Am I misremembering it being over 20k? This seat was to the LDs as Bassetlaw was to Labour, lost on an overwhelmingly crushing swing in 2019 due to retirement + Brexit-related factors, then clawed back in 2024. Except here at least the outgoing MP in 2019 didn't endorse your opponents. Though Baker did publicly back a nearby Green candidate this year. Wrong Norman |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jul 8, 2024 16:13:15 GMT
Am I misremembering it being over 20k? This seat was to the LDs as Bassetlaw was to Labour, lost on an overwhelmingly crushing swing in 2019 due to retirement + Brexit-related factors, then clawed back in 2024. Except here at least the outgoing MP in 2019 didn't endorse your opponents. Though Baker did publicly back a nearby Green candidate this year. Wrong Norman Sorry, went through Lewes on the train during the campaign and must've been getting flashbacks to when the fields were full of huge orange diamonds with his name on. I of course meant Lamb. |
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