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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 9, 2024 22:53:07 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 10, 2024 6:25:59 GMT
Even if some did predict a Labour gain here - nobody would've thought a near 5,000 majority! From an outsiders perspective the shift to Labour in Hertfordshire is pretty remarkable to witness. Hertford is unique case but the traditional marginals aside; Hemel, Watford, Stevenage and Welwyn Hatfield. Labour gained seats like North West Herts and Hitchin due to demographic changes. With young people struggling to afford to live in London and most home counties, places like Hitchin and Letchworth are becoming popular destinations. It's why Labour also gained Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard in Beds |
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Post by batman on Aug 26, 2024 7:01:23 GMT
The new MP is an undergraduate at Westminster University. Surely he will have to go part-time or abandon his course. He can be forgiven for thinking he had no chance of winning.
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Post by batman on Aug 26, 2024 7:01:59 GMT
Well done to swingometer for predicting this early.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 26, 2024 8:27:55 GMT
The new MP is an undergraduate at Westminster University. Surely he will have to go part-time or abandon his course. He can be forgiven for thinking he had no chance of winning. I wasn’t aware of that fact. A variation on the theme of Rudi Vis unexpectedly becoming an MP while he was working as a lecturer. |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 26, 2024 8:33:10 GMT
The new MP is an undergraduate at Westminster University. Surely he will have to go part-time or abandon his course. He can be forgiven for thinking he had no chance of winning. He could do online education, part time? |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 26, 2024 8:34:17 GMT
The new MP is an undergraduate at Westminster University. Surely he will have to go part-time or abandon his course. He can be forgiven for thinking he had no chance of winning. He could do online education, part time? Or he could do on-the-job practical training |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 27, 2024 14:02:17 GMT
The new MP is an undergraduate at Westminster University. Surely he will have to go part-time or abandon his course. He can be forgiven for thinking he had no chance of winning. The consensus amongst local organisers I spoke to from quite a long way out was that this one was very much in play, so I'm not convinced he will have been that surprised. Given his age, there's probably a decent chance he was already a final year student? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 27, 2024 18:18:32 GMT
Wasn't Charles Kennedy a student when elected?
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Post by batman on Aug 27, 2024 18:30:40 GMT
Apparently he was carrying out research at university in America, but not full-time. Malcolm Macmillan however was definitely a student when he won Western Isles for Labour in 1935.
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 27, 2024 18:54:20 GMT
The new MP is an undergraduate at Westminster University. Surely he will have to go part-time or abandon his course. He can be forgiven for thinking he had no chance of winning. The consensus amongst local organisers I spoke to from quite a long way out was that this one was very much in play, so I'm not convinced he will have been that surprised. Given his age, there's probably a decent chance he was already a final year student? my mum works here and organised a hustings. She was surprised the Greens didn't do better here. But then at the hustings the candidate appeared clearly off his head |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 27, 2024 19:05:33 GMT
Apparently he was carrying out research at university in America, but not full-time. Malcolm Macmillan however was definitely a student when he won Western Isles for Labour in 1935. Mhairi Black still had one final exam to sit after her 2015 election. |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 27, 2024 19:12:20 GMT
Wasn't Charles Kennedy a student when elected? According to his Wikipedia page, he graduated in 1982 - so no |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 27, 2024 19:16:49 GMT
Wasn't Charles Kennedy a student when elected? According to his Wikipedia page, he graduated in 1982 - so no He was a research student in the USA a the time he was elected - postgrad obvs |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Aug 27, 2024 19:19:12 GMT
Wasn't Charles Kennedy a student when elected? According to his Wikipedia page, he graduated in 1982 - so no He was a Fulbright scholar in the US at the time - so yes. |
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pl
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Post by pl on Aug 27, 2024 21:53:50 GMT
The new MP is an undergraduate at Westminster University. Surely he will have to go part-time or abandon his course. He can be forgiven for thinking he had no chance of winning. I never got the impression Josh Dean was lacking in self confidence! His campaign was essentially focused on "only Labour can beat the Conservatives". It was the right message given local factors, and the national picture. All of Labour, Lib Dems and Greens had their own areas of local strength. Indeed, in local government terms Labour are certainly the weakest of the three. The Lib Dems and Greens seemed to do VERY little work in the election campaign. Some might say deliberately. Labour took full advantage of it. My understanding is that East Herts was a national target in the 2023 locals for the Greens, but got no help at all in GE24. Locally, the Greens have very little infrastructure or relevance in the east of the constituency (Bishop's Stortford and Sawbridgeworth) and have had a couple of councillors resign the whip on various councils. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 27, 2024 21:55:31 GMT
The new MP is an undergraduate at Westminster University. Surely he will have to go part-time or abandon his course. He can be forgiven for thinking he had no chance of winning. I never got the impression Josh Dean was lacking in self confidence! His campaign was essentially focused on "only Labour can beat the Conservatives". It was the right message given local factors, and the national picture. All of Labour, Lib Dems and Greens had their own areas of local strength. Indeed, in local government terms Labour are certainly the weakest of the three. The Lib Dems and Greens seemed to do VERY little work in the election campaign. Some might say deliberately. Labour took full advantage of it. My understanding is that East Herts was a national target in the 2023 locals for the Greens, but got no help at all in GE24. Locally, the Greens have very little infrastructure or relevance in the east of the constituency (Bishop's Stortford and Sawbridgeworth) and have had a couple of councillors resign the whip on various councils. that was the message across UK. Battle ground seats were given calling cards with Sunak pasted on them and the word chaos written all over it |
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Post by evergreenadam on Sept 1, 2024 8:09:12 GMT
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Post by batman on Sept 1, 2024 8:25:24 GMT
I did say he might not have expected to - although I did predict it! For comparison, Labour were almost 6000 votes behind the Tories here in 2001.
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Post by heslingtonian on Sept 1, 2024 8:28:08 GMT
As I have remarked previously, I also think the incumbent Conservative was a significant help to Labour here. Even Conservatives I know locally said she was barely visible and there had been a deselection attempt which is unusual for a first term MP. She apparently lived in Kent and turned up to the constituency sporadically. She was also a very strong hard Brexiteer and a Boris Johnson fan to the extent that she apparently named her labrador Boris. By July 2024, that was not a popular position in places like Bishops Stortford.
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