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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:16:21 GMT
Hertford and Stortford
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 18, 2024 17:02:00 GMT
Link to profile2021 Census, new boundariesAged 65+ 17.2% Owner occupied 69.4% 193/575 Private rented 17.6% 310/575 Social rented 12.9% 385/575 White 90.9% 280/575 Black 1.6% 266/575 Asian 3.3% 325/575 Managerial & professional 44.1% 50/575 Routine & Semi-routine 17.2% 478/575 Degree level 40.1% 111/575 No qualifications 13.4% 491/575 Students 5.1% 369/575 2019 General Election Con | 33,712 | 56.1% | Lab | 14,092 | 23.4% | LD | 8,596 | 14.3% | Grn | 2,705 | 4.5% | UKIP | 681 | 1.1% | Ind | 2,367 | 0.5% | | | | Majority | 19,620 | 32.7% |
Boundary ChangesHertford and Stortford consists of 91.7% of Hertford and Stortford Mapboundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_069_Hertford%20and%20Stortford_Landscape.pdfNotional result 2019 (Rallings &Thrasher) Con | 30979 | 55.7% | Lab | 13173 | 23.7% | LD | 7907 | 14.2% | Grn | 2587 | 4.7% | Oths | 989 | 1.8% | | | | | | | |
| | Maj | 17806 | 32.0% |
Candidates: Conservative - Julie Marson (incumbent) Labour - Josh Dean - Hertford town councillor (Castle ward) Lib Dem - Helen Campbell - County councillor from St Albans Reform UK - John Burmicz - former East Herts Conservative councillor for Sawbridgeworth and Mayor of that town Green - Nick Cox - local councillor for Ware Trinity
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 28, 2024 18:11:18 GMT
| Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | Grn |
| | | | | | | | 1974 | 41.6% | 30.6% | 27.8% | | | | 1974 | 41.5% | 33.7% | 23.8% | 1.0% | | | 1979 | 53.8% | 29.0% | 15.7% | 1.5% | | | 1983 | 55.3% | 12.7% | 30.9% | 0.7% | | | 1987 | 56.6% | 13.5% | 28.6% | | 1.4% | | 1992 | 56.5% | 16.8% | 25.4% | | 1.3% | |
| Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP | Grn | BNP | | | | | | | | 1997 | 42.9% | 31.6% | 18.7% | 6.3% | | | 2001 | 43.3% | 33.1% | 21.0% | 2.6% | | | 2005 | 49.5% | 24.2% | 19.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | | 2010 | 52.7% | 14.0% | 26.9% | 3.1% | | 2.3% | 2015 | 55.7% | 18.3% | 8.0% | 13.2% | 4.8% | | 2017 | 59.6% | 29.2% | 8.2% | | 3.0% | | 2019 | 55.7% | 23.7% | 15.5% | 1.2% | 4.7% | |
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Post by carolus on Jun 7, 2024 15:46:50 GMT
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Post by swingometer on Jun 8, 2024 17:58:19 GMT
LAB GAiN
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 13, 2024 15:14:25 GMT
Labour? In this area? Are you quite sure?
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,547
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Post by ricmk on Jun 13, 2024 15:25:04 GMT
The incumbent Tory MP here is very poorly rated. I think there was a half-hearted deselection attempt. The question may be how that transfers to the wider public - in general this sort of stuff doesn't usually register at the end of the day. But there is a reason why there might be a well above average swing against here.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 13, 2024 16:49:09 GMT
The incumbent Tory MP here is very poorly rated. I think there was a half-hearted deselection attempt. The question may be how that transfers to the wider public - in general this sort of stuff doesn't usually register at the end of the day. But there is a reason why there might be a well above average swing against here. Indeed, I'd expect the Lib Dems to be more likely to benefit though.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 13, 2024 16:54:47 GMT
The incumbent Tory MP here is very poorly rated. I think there was a half-hearted deselection attempt. The question may be how that transfers to the wider public - in general this sort of stuff doesn't usually register at the end of the day. But there is a reason why there might be a well above average swing against here. Indeed, I'd expect the Lib Dems to be more likely to benefit though. I wouldn't predict a Labour win here at all, but given that Labour were 6,000 votes ahead of the Lib Dems in 2019, and that in a terrible election for the party, I would have to disagree with you.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 13, 2024 16:56:46 GMT
Indeed, I'd expect the Lib Dems to be more likely to benefit though. I wouldn't predict a Labour win here at all, but given that Labour were 6,000 votes ahead of the Lib Dems in 2019, and that in a terrible election for the party, I would have to disagree with you. If anyone will get enough Tory dissident votes to win (which are mostly what is up for grabs), it will be the Liberals.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,843
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Post by YL on Jun 13, 2024 17:05:44 GMT
If Labour do get the sort of landslide that some forecasts are indicating, then they are going to win in some strange places. The ElectionMapsUK Nowcast has them winning this seat, and the YouGov MRP has them only one percentage point behind the Tories. Even the More In Common MRP, which had a smaller majority, had Labour very narrowly ahead here.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 13, 2024 17:42:06 GMT
It's a much more urban seat now that it was when first created and the Tories have had a very bad time of it in the three main towns. The Greens were the main beneficiary of it in Hertford and Ware but obviously won't be in the general. Their vote will be crucial though. Hertford itself seems to be going a bit the way of St Albans and Hitchin. It is obviously a longshot but if its a landslide of greater than 1997 proportions I can see it being one of those 'shock' Labour gains.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 13, 2024 17:44:38 GMT
I mean I can't bitch about middle class Londoners moving out into Hertfordshire and bringing their politics with them - it's always happened and that's what my parents did 60 years ago. It's just the middle class Londoners of today are a different animal to those who moved here in the 1960s (or the 1980s for that matter)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 13, 2024 17:49:48 GMT
All that said, I still think seats like this provide the good value bets at this election. Currently at 2/1 on Bet365 for a Conservative hold. Just as safe Labour seats provided the good value in 2017 (and would have done even without the 'Corbyn surge') - just not so sure this time that the gap is going to be closed after all (and annoyed I bought at 6/4..)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 13, 2024 18:08:21 GMT
I mean I can't bitch about middle class Londoners moving out into Hertfordshire and bringing their politics with them - it's always happened and that's what my parents did 60 years ago. It's just the middle class Londoners of today are a different animal to those who moved here in the 1960s (or the 1980s for that matter) Is it a similar pace of movement as it has been in the past or has it picked up since Covid?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 13, 2024 18:26:38 GMT
I mean I can't bitch about middle class Londoners moving out into Hertfordshire and bringing their politics with them - it's always happened and that's what my parents did 60 years ago. It's just the middle class Londoners of today are a different animal to those who moved here in the 1960s (or the 1980s for that matter) Is it a similar pace of movement as it has been in the past or has it picked up since Covid? Covid certainly provided a big boost, but its a natural and continuing trend anyway. I don't have any data so am only going on my impressions.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 16, 2024 7:15:31 GMT
This does feel like it could be one of the most surprising Labour gains. As others have commented, the Conservative incumbent is known to be very unpopular here - a hardline Brexiteer (it often gets mentioned that she named her dog after Boris Johnson) who apparently has never put down local roots and doesn't even appear to be popular with her fellow Conservative activists.
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Post by Clark on Jul 6, 2024 20:32:36 GMT
Even if some did predict a Labour gain here - nobody would've thought a near 5,000 majority!
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Post by batman on Jul 6, 2024 21:32:50 GMT
I ended up predicting one, and NE Herts too ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) In fact, my Hertfordshire predictions were spot on. Unlike those for other counties of comparable size in certain cases.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 6, 2024 23:34:16 GMT
Even if some did predict a Labour gain here - nobody would've thought a near 5,000 majority! I did warn you all that Julie Marson was not a popular MP. Frankly she was a dreadful fit for this constituency and by choosing her the local Conservatives have contributed to this defeat. They would have done better with Bowen Wells!
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