Hertford and Stortford

[stb12]

Hertford and Stortford

[Pete Whitehead]

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Feb 16, 2024 19:00:36 GMT Robert Waller said:

2021 Census, new boundaries

Aged 65+ 17.2%
Owner occupied 69.4% 193/575
Private rented 17.6% 310/575
Social rented 12.9% 385/575
White 90.9% 280/575
Black 1.6% 266/575
Asian 3.3% 325/575
Managerial & professional 44.1% 50/575
Routine & Semi-routine 17.2% 478/575
Degree level 40.1% 111/575
No qualifications 13.4% 491/575
Students 5.1% 369/575


2019 General Election

Con	33,712	56.1%
Lab	14,092	23.4%
LD	8,596	14.3%
Grn	2,705	4.5%
UKIP	681	1.1%
Ind	2,367	0.5%
Majority	19,620	32.7%

Boundary Changes
Hertford and Stortford consists of
91.7% of Hertford and Stortford

Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_069_Hertford%20and%20Stortford_Landscape.pdf

Notional result 2019 (Rallings &Thrasher)

Con	30979	55.7%
Lab	13173	23.7%
LD	7907	14.2%
Grn	2587	4.7%
Oths	989	1.8%
Maj	17806	32.0%

Candidates:

Conservative - Julie Marson (incumbent)
Labour - Josh Dean - Hertford town councillor (Castle ward)
Lib Dem - Helen Campbell - County councillor from St Albans
Reform UK - John Burmicz - former East Herts Conservative councillor for Sawbridgeworth and Mayor of that town
Green - Nick Cox - local councillor for Ware Trinity

[Pete Whitehead]

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP	Grn
1974	41.6%	30.6%	27.8%
1974	41.5%	33.7%	23.8%	1.0%
1979	53.8%	29.0%	15.7%	1.5%
1983	55.3%	12.7%	30.9%	0.7%
1987	56.6%	13.5%	28.6%		1.4%
1992	56.5%	16.8%	25.4%		1.3%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP	Grn	BNP
1997	42.9%	31.6%	18.7%	6.3%
2001	43.3%	33.1%	21.0%	2.6%
2005	49.5%	24.2%	19.3%	3.2%	3.9%
2010	52.7%	14.0%	26.9%	3.1%		2.3%
2015	55.7%	18.3%	8.0%	13.2%	4.8%
2017	59.6%	29.2%	8.2%		3.0%
2019	55.7%	23.7%	15.5%	1.2%	4.7%

[carolus]

cdn-eastherts.onwebcurl.com/s3fs-public/2024-06/Statement%20of%20Persons%20Nominated%20and%20Situation%20of%20Polling%20Stations%20notice.pdf

7 - Con, Green, Lab, LD, Reform UK, Alliance for Democracy & Freedom, Heritage

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Jun 8, 2024 17:58:19 GMT swingometer said:

LAB GAiN

Labour? In this area? Are you quite sure?

[ricmk]

The incumbent Tory MP here is very poorly rated. I think there was a half-hearted deselection attempt.
The question may be how that transfers to the wider public - in general this sort of stuff doesn't usually register at the end of the day. But there is a reason why there might be a well above average swing against here.

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Jun 13, 2024 15:25:04 GMT ricmk said:

The incumbent Tory MP here is very poorly rated. I think there was a half-hearted deselection attempt.
The question may be how that transfers to the wider public - in general this sort of stuff doesn't usually register at the end of the day. But there is a reason why there might be a well above average swing against here.

Indeed, I'd expect the Lib Dems to be more likely to benefit though.

[finsobruce]

Jun 13, 2024 16:49:09 GMT Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells said:

Jun 13, 2024 15:25:04 GMT ricmk said:

The incumbent Tory MP here is very poorly rated. I think there was a half-hearted deselection attempt.
The question may be how that transfers to the wider public - in general this sort of stuff doesn't usually register at the end of the day. But there is a reason why there might be a well above average swing against here.

Indeed, I'd expect the Lib Dems to be more likely to benefit though.

I wouldn't predict a Labour win here at all, but given that Labour were 6,000 votes ahead of the Lib Dems in 2019, and that in a terrible election for the party, I would have to disagree with you.

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Jun 13, 2024 16:54:47 GMT finsobruce said:

Jun 13, 2024 16:49:09 GMT Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells said:

Indeed, I'd expect the Lib Dems to be more likely to benefit though.

I wouldn't predict a Labour win here at all, but given that Labour were 6,000 votes ahead of the Lib Dems in 2019, and that in a terrible election for the party, I would have to disagree with you.

If anyone will get enough Tory dissident votes to win (which are mostly what is up for grabs), it will be the Liberals.

[YL]

If Labour do get the sort of landslide that some forecasts are indicating, then they are going to win in some strange places. The ElectionMapsUK Nowcast has them winning this seat, and the YouGov MRP has them only one percentage point behind the Tories. Even the More In Common MRP, which had a smaller majority, had Labour very narrowly ahead here.

[Pete Whitehead]

It's a much more urban seat now that it was when first created and the Tories have had a very bad time of it in the three main towns. The Greens were the main beneficiary of it in Hertford and Ware but obviously won't be in the general. Their vote will be crucial though. Hertford itself seems to be going a bit the way of St Albans and Hitchin. It is obviously a longshot but if its a landslide of greater than 1997 proportions I can see it being one of those 'shock' Labour gains.

[Pete Whitehead]

I mean I can't bitch about middle class Londoners moving out into Hertfordshire and bringing their politics with them - it's always happened and that's what my parents did 60 years ago. It's just the middle class Londoners of today are a different animal to those who moved here in the 1960s (or the 1980s for that matter)

[Pete Whitehead]

All that said, I still think seats like this provide the good value bets at this election. Currently at 2/1 on Bet365 for a Conservative hold. Just as safe Labour seats provided the good value in 2017 (and would have done even without the 'Corbyn surge') - just not so sure this time that the gap is going to be closed after all (and annoyed I bought at 6/4..)

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 13, 2024 17:44:38 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I mean I can't bitch about middle class Londoners moving out into Hertfordshire and bringing their politics with them - it's always happened and that's what my parents did 60 years ago. It's just the middle class Londoners of today are a different animal to those who moved here in the 1960s (or the 1980s for that matter)

Is it a similar pace of movement as it has been in the past or has it picked up since Covid?

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 13, 2024 18:08:21 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Jun 13, 2024 17:44:38 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I mean I can't bitch about middle class Londoners moving out into Hertfordshire and bringing their politics with them - it's always happened and that's what my parents did 60 years ago. It's just the middle class Londoners of today are a different animal to those who moved here in the 1960s (or the 1980s for that matter)

Is it a similar pace of movement as it has been in the past or has it picked up since Covid?

Covid certainly provided a big boost, but its a natural and continuing trend anyway. I don't have any data so am only going on my impressions.

[heslingtonian]

This does feel like it could be one of the most surprising Labour gains. As others have commented, the Conservative incumbent is known to be very unpopular here - a hardline Brexiteer (it often gets mentioned that she named her dog after Boris Johnson) who apparently has never put down local roots and doesn't even appear to be popular with her fellow Conservative activists.

[Clark]

Even if some did predict a Labour gain here - nobody would've thought a near 5,000 majority!

[batman]

I ended up predicting one, and NE Herts too In fact, my Hertfordshire predictions were spot on. Unlike those for other counties of comparable size in certain cases.

[heslingtonian]

Jul 6, 2024 20:32:36 GMT Clark said:

Even if some did predict a Labour gain here - nobody would've thought a near 5,000 majority!

I did warn you all that Julie Marson was not a popular MP. Frankly she was a dreadful fit for this constituency and by choosing her the local Conservatives have contributed to this defeat. They would have done better with Bowen Wells!

[ccoleman]

Jul 6, 2024 20:32:36 GMT Clark said:

Even if some did predict a Labour gain here - nobody would've thought a near 5,000 majority!

From an outsiders perspective the shift to Labour in Hertfordshire is pretty remarkable to witness.