stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:15:03 GMT
Harpenden and Berkhamsted
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 18, 2024 16:26:26 GMT
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Post by hempie on Mar 28, 2024 15:02:51 GMT
The Green candidate will be Paul de Hoest. He was the Green candidate for South West Hertfordshire in 2017 and a former Berkhamsted Town councillor.
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Post by pendraig on May 1, 2024 11:06:59 GMT
How active are the LD and Conservative campaigns in this seat? Assuming they are the main contenders despite what Electoral Calculus says...
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Post by heslingtonian on May 6, 2024 18:49:15 GMT
How active are the LD and Conservative campaigns in this seat? Assuming they are the main contenders despite what Electoral Calculus says... Based on recent local elections here and the national picture, it will be between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives with the Liberal Democrats as strong favourites. I think the most likely outcome is a Liberal Democrat majority of around 5,000. |
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Post by batman on May 6, 2024 18:53:14 GMT
yes I would be surprised to see the LDs fail to win here. It would be one of their most upmarket constituencies, although my own one & neighbouring Twickenham are no slouches in that regard plus one or two others perhaps.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 6, 2024 20:49:03 GMT
I wouldn't be
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Post by heslingtonian on May 7, 2024 21:01:57 GMT
yes I would be surprised to see the LDs fail to win here. It would be one of their most upmarket constituencies, although my own one & neighbouring Twickenham are no slouches in that regard plus one or two others perhaps. Quite a few likely upmarket Lib Dem wins at the upcoming General Election. In addition to this one, the following seats are all upmarket and possible Lib Dem gains: Winchester Wimbledon Cheltenham Esher & Walton Dorking & Horley Harrogate & Knaresborough Henley Godalming & Ash Lewes Tunbridge Wells Chichester South Cambridgeshire South Cotswolds |
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Post by batman on May 7, 2024 22:35:15 GMT
still tend to think the Tories ought to be able to hold Chichester. But yes they could contrive to lose it
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Post by evergreenadam on May 13, 2024 21:00:11 GMT
Despite our instincts this is not one that the MRPs have identified as a Lib Dem gain, which is baffling. What do they know that we don’t?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 13, 2024 21:12:21 GMT
Despite our instincts this is not one that the MRPs have identified as a Lib Dem gain, which is baffling. What do they know that we don’t? Who is 'our' and 'we' here? |
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Post by evergreenadam on May 13, 2024 21:49:39 GMT
Despite our instincts this is not one that the MRPs have identified as a Lib Dem gain, which is baffling. What do they know that we don’t? Who is 'our' and 'we' here? The people in the posts above predicting a Lib Dem gain. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on May 13, 2024 22:44:26 GMT
Despite our instincts this is not one that the MRPs have identified as a Lib Dem gain, which is baffling. What do they know that we don’t? Perhaps they mistook the second part of the constituency name for Birkenhead? |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on May 14, 2024 1:08:44 GMT
Despite our instincts this is not one that the MRPs have identified as a Lib Dem gain, which is baffling. What do they know that we don’t? MRPs may be confused here by the considerable Independent (Gauke) vote in the part of the seat which comes from South West Herts. Indeed, if you look at Electoral Calculus, whose current forecasts I believe have a strong input from an MRP, it has the Lib Dems carrying almost all of the St Albans wards within the seat, but none of the Dacorum wards, most of which were in Gauke’s seat. In its current Tory disaster forecast, it has Labour ahead in most of the Dacorum wards, and narrowly carrying the seat, though it is close three way, with all three main parties between 25% and 30%. I doubt many people think a Labour gain here is likely. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 27, 2024 9:27:21 GMT
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD |
| | | | | | | | | | 1974 | 49.4% | 21.6% | 29.0% | | | | 1974 | 50.9% | 25.5% | 23.6% | | | | 1979 | 58.9% | 23.5% | 17.3% | | | | 1983 | 58.9% | 10.1% | 30.8% | | | | 1987 | 60.8% | 10.5% | 28.0% | | | | 1992 | 62.9% | 14.2% | 21.6% | | |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/
BXP | Grn | Ind | | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 49.6% | 25.6% | 22.5% | 2.0% | | | | 2001 | 49.0% | 25.2% | 23.6% | 1.6% | | | | 2005 | 51.0% | 16.8% | 29.9% | 2.0% | | | | 2010 | 57.3% | 9.0% | 28.2% | 2.7% | | | | 2015 | 61.3% | 15.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 4.8% | | | 2017 | 59.7% | 24.9% | 11.5% | 0.7% | 2.3% | | | 2019 | 52.3% | 10.6% | 25.3% | | 1.6% | 10.2% |
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Post by hempie on Jun 7, 2024 15:51:56 GMT
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 1, 2024 20:34:53 GMT
I expect this one will go Lib Dem (largely due to their almost monolithic dominance of local politics) but I had expected to see more Lib Dem diamonds when I drove through Berkhamsted earlier today. Lib Dem majority of 6k is my best guess.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 1, 2024 21:13:25 GMT
I expect this one will go Lib Dem (largely due to their almost monolithic dominance of local politics) but I had expected to see more Lib Dem diamonds when I drove through Berkhamsted earlier today. Lib Dem majority of 6k is my best guess. I think if they do win (and I have a bet on them from when they wre at 5/2, so I'm aware of their threat), it will be a lot closer than that |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jul 5, 2024 0:00:22 GMT
This one may be going gold:
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 5, 2024 0:02:36 GMT
This one may be going gold: I've just had a message about Harpenden from a friend nearby saying the same. He says to watch Hitchin as well. |
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