Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 11, 2023 21:50:40 GMT
A new name for an entirely new constituency, although Harpenden has featured in a constituency name since 1997, it has played second fiddle to the slightly larger town of Hitchin, now separated to form the centre of its own seat. Hitchin & Harpenden was never the most logical arrangement, consisting effectively of the bits left over when Hertfordshire’s other ten seats were redrawn. There was very little in the way of links between the two halves of the seat nor much commonality of interest.
Before 1997, Harpenden had sat much more logically in the St Albans seat but for many decades prior to 1974 it formed part of the vast Hemel Hempstead seat which stretched also far to the West of that town to include Berkhamsted and Tring as well as a swathe of rural territory. Now these areas (but not Hemel itself of course) are reunited in the new seat of Harpenden and Berkhamsted.
It must be said that as with Hitchin & Harpenden, the direct links between the two halves of the seat are not great. The A5 connects Redbourn (from St Albans district) with Flamstead and Markyate in Dacorum, but the population centres in the West have no real links to those in the East. Yet in a way there is a certain internal logic to this constituency. It comprises all those parts of Dacorum and St Albans districts left over when the towns of Hemel and St Albans themselves are removed. It consists of a series of small, very affluent commuter towns and their rural hinterland, all well connected to London via various routes. This will be one of the wealthiest constituencies in the country and with amongst the highest proportion of professional and managerial workers and lowest proportion of routine workers.
www.hertfordshiremercury.co.uk/news/hertfordshire-news/harpenden-named-britains-most-desirable-8582925
Harpenden itself indeed was recorded as one of the two or three most ‘middle class’ towns in England as far back as 1971. In the West Common area especially but throughout the town there is immense wealth and large detached houses predominate.
Just over half of the electorate of this seat come from the Hitchin & Harpenden seat (and therefore the St Albans district) with the majority of these in Harpenden itself – by far the largest town in this seat. The rest are in the large and comfortable villages of Redbourn and Wheathampstead, the smaller village of Sandridge nearer to St Albans and the large 1980s estate of Jersey Farm which is entirely part of the built-up area of that city. There are some areas of social housing in the villages but virtually none in Jersey Farm and overall, these areas are not much less upmarket than Harpenden. Harpenden itself has one or two less salubrious areas such as Batford (in East ward), Westfield (North) and Southdown (divided between the South and West wards). These have traditionally formed the basis of Lib Dem support which has waxed and waned in the area, while Labour have not ever won seats in this area on St Albans council.
The Dacorum half of the seat comes from two sources.
The major part comes from the South West Hertfordshire seat, including Berkhamsted, the smaller town of Tring and some villages between the two such as Northchurch, Aldbury and Wigginton. Berkhamsted is another very high-status town – an historic market town with a broad and long high street and a middle-class commuter base with good links to London. Tring is a little more downmarket of Berkhamsted (but these things are relative) with a little industrial heritage and substantial council estates in the Central ward. But overall, it is also an attractive commuter base, set deep into the Chiltern hills. Berkhamsted itself has its council estates and the West ward is relatively downmarket (again we must stress ‘relative). The predecessor Berkhamsted Northchurch ward elected Labour councillors in 1973, this being the last time any Labour councillors were elected within the borders of this constituency.
The smaller Dacorum element comes from the Hemel Hempstead seat and links the two more populous parts of the seat. These are the two rural wards of Watling (covering the expanded villages of Flamstead and Markyate on the A5 and Ashridge with its stately home and forest. There are small villages here set in beautiful countryside like Potten End and the Gaddesdens. This remains an overwhelmingly strong Conservative area which withstood the Lib Dem onslaught in Dacorum in May 2023.
In fact, as recently as five years ago the Conservative party held all bar two of the local council seats within this constituency, the exceptions being an Independent in Redbourn and a Lib Dem in Tring Central (though the Lib Dems have also held the Tring County council division for many years). In recent years though the Tories have suffered a disaster here in local elections. Starting in 2019, the Lib Dems gained most of the seats within the SW Herts part of the constituency – all the seats in Berkhamsted, most of the seats in Tring and both Aldbury & Wigginton and Northchurch. Only Tring East survived this massacre and that fell in turn in 2023.
Meanwhile the Conservatives had suffered some setbacks in Harpenden in 2021. In 2022 the whole of St Albans council was re-elected on new ward boundaries and the Conservatives were almost wiped out. They (just) held the three seats in Harpenden South, but the Lib Dems won the rest of the town, Sandridge & Wheathampstead and the ward covering Jersey Farm while Redbourn was split between the Lib Dems and an Independent. From over 30 seats a few years ago, the Conservatives now hold just six (3 in Harpenden South and 3 in the Ashridge and Watling wards of Dacorum). All three town councils have large Lib Dem majorities, and the Lib Dems also now hold a majority of county council seats wholly or partly within this constituency.
Though the term is to be abhorred, this is as archetypal a ‘blue wall’ seat as one could find, to the extent that Ed Davey chose it as the location of one of his ‘blue wall’ stunts ahead of the May 2023 local elections. This constituency would have voted to Remain in the EU by a very large margin. It is very similar demographically to the neighbouring seat of Chesham & Amersham and like that will historically have been an ultra-safe Conservative seat (this afterall is the area which kept Hemel Hempstead in the Tory column in 1945 and 1966).
That seat is now in the hands of the Lib Dems following a by-election, but the first contest here will not be a by-election. The Lib Dems are the obvious challengers here, but the 2019 notional result will be skewed by the large vote for David Gauke’s Independent candidature which suppressed the Lib Dem vote. The Conservatives remain favourites but must expect a lively challenge from the Lib Dems who may not be ruled out in the future if the comfortable professional and managerial classes of the home counties continue to trend away from their traditional support for the Conservatives.
Before 1997, Harpenden had sat much more logically in the St Albans seat but for many decades prior to 1974 it formed part of the vast Hemel Hempstead seat which stretched also far to the West of that town to include Berkhamsted and Tring as well as a swathe of rural territory. Now these areas (but not Hemel itself of course) are reunited in the new seat of Harpenden and Berkhamsted.
It must be said that as with Hitchin & Harpenden, the direct links between the two halves of the seat are not great. The A5 connects Redbourn (from St Albans district) with Flamstead and Markyate in Dacorum, but the population centres in the West have no real links to those in the East. Yet in a way there is a certain internal logic to this constituency. It comprises all those parts of Dacorum and St Albans districts left over when the towns of Hemel and St Albans themselves are removed. It consists of a series of small, very affluent commuter towns and their rural hinterland, all well connected to London via various routes. This will be one of the wealthiest constituencies in the country and with amongst the highest proportion of professional and managerial workers and lowest proportion of routine workers.
www.hertfordshiremercury.co.uk/news/hertfordshire-news/harpenden-named-britains-most-desirable-8582925
Harpenden itself indeed was recorded as one of the two or three most ‘middle class’ towns in England as far back as 1971. In the West Common area especially but throughout the town there is immense wealth and large detached houses predominate.
Just over half of the electorate of this seat come from the Hitchin & Harpenden seat (and therefore the St Albans district) with the majority of these in Harpenden itself – by far the largest town in this seat. The rest are in the large and comfortable villages of Redbourn and Wheathampstead, the smaller village of Sandridge nearer to St Albans and the large 1980s estate of Jersey Farm which is entirely part of the built-up area of that city. There are some areas of social housing in the villages but virtually none in Jersey Farm and overall, these areas are not much less upmarket than Harpenden. Harpenden itself has one or two less salubrious areas such as Batford (in East ward), Westfield (North) and Southdown (divided between the South and West wards). These have traditionally formed the basis of Lib Dem support which has waxed and waned in the area, while Labour have not ever won seats in this area on St Albans council.
The Dacorum half of the seat comes from two sources.
The major part comes from the South West Hertfordshire seat, including Berkhamsted, the smaller town of Tring and some villages between the two such as Northchurch, Aldbury and Wigginton. Berkhamsted is another very high-status town – an historic market town with a broad and long high street and a middle-class commuter base with good links to London. Tring is a little more downmarket of Berkhamsted (but these things are relative) with a little industrial heritage and substantial council estates in the Central ward. But overall, it is also an attractive commuter base, set deep into the Chiltern hills. Berkhamsted itself has its council estates and the West ward is relatively downmarket (again we must stress ‘relative). The predecessor Berkhamsted Northchurch ward elected Labour councillors in 1973, this being the last time any Labour councillors were elected within the borders of this constituency.
The smaller Dacorum element comes from the Hemel Hempstead seat and links the two more populous parts of the seat. These are the two rural wards of Watling (covering the expanded villages of Flamstead and Markyate on the A5 and Ashridge with its stately home and forest. There are small villages here set in beautiful countryside like Potten End and the Gaddesdens. This remains an overwhelmingly strong Conservative area which withstood the Lib Dem onslaught in Dacorum in May 2023.
In fact, as recently as five years ago the Conservative party held all bar two of the local council seats within this constituency, the exceptions being an Independent in Redbourn and a Lib Dem in Tring Central (though the Lib Dems have also held the Tring County council division for many years). In recent years though the Tories have suffered a disaster here in local elections. Starting in 2019, the Lib Dems gained most of the seats within the SW Herts part of the constituency – all the seats in Berkhamsted, most of the seats in Tring and both Aldbury & Wigginton and Northchurch. Only Tring East survived this massacre and that fell in turn in 2023.
Meanwhile the Conservatives had suffered some setbacks in Harpenden in 2021. In 2022 the whole of St Albans council was re-elected on new ward boundaries and the Conservatives were almost wiped out. They (just) held the three seats in Harpenden South, but the Lib Dems won the rest of the town, Sandridge & Wheathampstead and the ward covering Jersey Farm while Redbourn was split between the Lib Dems and an Independent. From over 30 seats a few years ago, the Conservatives now hold just six (3 in Harpenden South and 3 in the Ashridge and Watling wards of Dacorum). All three town councils have large Lib Dem majorities, and the Lib Dems also now hold a majority of county council seats wholly or partly within this constituency.
Though the term is to be abhorred, this is as archetypal a ‘blue wall’ seat as one could find, to the extent that Ed Davey chose it as the location of one of his ‘blue wall’ stunts ahead of the May 2023 local elections. This constituency would have voted to Remain in the EU by a very large margin. It is very similar demographically to the neighbouring seat of Chesham & Amersham and like that will historically have been an ultra-safe Conservative seat (this afterall is the area which kept Hemel Hempstead in the Tory column in 1945 and 1966).
That seat is now in the hands of the Lib Dems following a by-election, but the first contest here will not be a by-election. The Lib Dems are the obvious challengers here, but the 2019 notional result will be skewed by the large vote for David Gauke’s Independent candidature which suppressed the Lib Dem vote. The Conservatives remain favourites but must expect a lively challenge from the Lib Dems who may not be ruled out in the future if the comfortable professional and managerial classes of the home counties continue to trend away from their traditional support for the Conservatives.
