Rushcliffe

[stb12]

Rushcliffe

[carolus]

www.rushcliffe.gov.uk/media/wtnjjoqc/statement-of-persons-nominated-notice-of-poll-and-situation-of-polling-stations.pdf

7 - Con, Green, Lab, LD, Reform UK, 2x Ind

[eastmidlandsright]

I have been disappointed in the campaign of James Naish, who I had heard many good things about. He seems to have almost nothing to say about national politics and seems to be running to be some sort of super councillor rather than a member of Parliament. His pitch is largely about all the things he will do for the constituency, most of which will be outside his powers as an MP. It might prove to be effective but I have my doubts. I expect him to win but I think the swing will be well below average.

[johnloony]

Jun 22, 2024 12:45:13 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

I have been disappointed in the campaign of James Naish, who I had heard many good things about. He seems to have almost nothing to say about national politics and seems to be running to be some sort of super councillor rather than a member of Parliament. His pitch is largely about all the things he will do for the constituency, most of which will be outside his powers as an MP. It might prove to be effective but I have my doubts. I expect him to win but I think the swing will be well below average.

That sounds like a version of the “Don’t mention Rishi Sunak” strategy, which is generally a good one at the moment.

[bsjmcr]

Jun 22, 2024 12:45:13 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

I have been disappointed in the campaign of James Naish, who I had heard many good things about. He seems to have almost nothing to say about national politics and seems to be running to be some sort of super councillor rather than a member of Parliament. His pitch is largely about all the things he will do for the constituency, most of which will be outside his powers as an MP. It might prove to be effective but I have my doubts. I expect him to win but I think the swing will be well below average.

I think it’s a good local strategy against the total non-entity the conservatives managed to put forward to replace the ultra-local (and highly popular) Clarke which explains her relatively poor 2019 result. 

[eastmidlandsright]

Jun 22, 2024 14:01:27 GMT bsjmcr said:

Jun 22, 2024 12:45:13 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

I have been disappointed in the campaign of James Naish, who I had heard many good things about. He seems to have almost nothing to say about national politics and seems to be running to be some sort of super councillor rather than a member of Parliament. His pitch is largely about all the things he will do for the constituency, most of which will be outside his powers as an MP. It might prove to be effective but I have my doubts. I expect him to win but I think the swing will be well below average.

I think it’s a good local strategy against the total non-entity the conservatives managed to put forward to replace the ultra-local (and highly popular) Clarke which explains her relatively poor 2019 result. 

There is certainly an element of that. Clarke was not the most assiduous when it came to casework (a good thing IMO) but he looked after the interests of the constituency and he knew how to get things done. His replacement while not really objectionable is, as you say, a non-entity. Naish is trying to portray himself as a Clarke like figure.

[Deleted]

LAB 48%
CON 31%
REF 11%
GRN 5%
LD 3%
OTH 2%

Going going gone. Tory vote rushing off a cliff(e) here.

[YL]

Lab gain on a 12.6% swing.

[eastmidlandsright]

The Tory vote actually held up relatively well here with Ruth Edwards only dropping around a third of her 2019 vote. The Lib Dem vote collapsed from 16% in 2019 to only just keeping their deposit.