Newark

[swanarcadian]

Oct 9, 2024 20:48:51 GMT right said:

Interesting that there's no discussion on the closeness or otherwise of the result.

I suspect Jenrick's call will make a lot of the relatively close shave Kemi had in North West Essex

Result:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001375

That’s perhaps just a measure of how badly we did in July; most Tory majorities were small including those of the leadership candidates.

[No Offence Alan]

Oct 9, 2024 20:48:51 GMT right said:

Interesting that there's no discussion on the closeness or otherwise of the result.

I suspect Jenrick's call will make a lot of the relatively close shave Kemi had in North West Essex

Result:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001375

I don't think a majority of 3,572 (6.7%) versus one of 2,610 (4.8%) is quite the killer you think it is.

[Foggy]

If Mel Stride had somehow made the final two then that might have been a fair point. As it is, I can't see that being a significant factor in the membership run-off.

[carlton43]

Oct 9, 2024 22:33:03 GMT Foggy said:

If Mel Stride had somehow made the final two then that might have been a fair point. As it is, I can't see that being a significant factor in the membership run-off.

The July majorities are completely irrelevant.

Both will increase a lot at the next GE.

If they don't increase 'a lot' then no chance of getting close to winning the GE.

So, it doesn't matter at all.

[sanders]

Oct 9, 2024 22:33:03 GMT Foggy said:

If Mel Stride had somehow made the final two then that might have been a fair point. As it is, I can't see that being a significant factor in the membership run-off.

The Tories lost seats in 2001. Famously losing South Dorset to Labour. Stride's seat is trending Labour long-term. There's an Exeter effect of sorts. Not saying he'd lose next time. Leaders should only have safe seats. The same is true for cabinet. That way, you avoid Portillo moments. There was levelling up funding here. Or at least, it was slated. Anyone remember the towns fund (2021)? Doubt it impacted the result, however. 

[right]

The point about Badenoch was that she seemed to excite opinion against her with Labour getting a surprisingly good result. I'm not sure if Jenrick has the same effect, although the Lib Dem vote does look very low, but this hasn't been commented upon.

However Newark even in its newer boundaries should be a somewhat shakier prospect in a landslide than North West Essex.

[aargauer]

Oct 10, 2024 3:16:37 GMT sanders said:

Oct 9, 2024 22:33:03 GMT Foggy said:

If Mel Stride had somehow made the final two then that might have been a fair point. As it is, I can't see that being a significant factor in the membership run-off.

The Tories lost seats in 2001. Famously losing South Dorset to Labour. Stride's seat is trending Labour long-term. There's an Exeter effect of sorts. Not saying he'd lose next time. Leaders should only have safe seats. The same is true for cabinet. That way, you avoid Portillo moments. There was levelling up funding here. Or at least, it was slated. Anyone remember the towns fund (2021)? Doubt it impacted the result, however. 

I don't see a meaningful pro labour trend - they've just replaced liberal as the opposition.

Liberals would have come pretty close here in a poor Tory year like 2001, 2005.

[sanders]

Oct 10, 2024 7:25:03 GMT aargauer said:

Oct 10, 2024 3:16:37 GMT sanders said:

The Tories lost seats in 2001. Famously losing South Dorset to Labour. Stride's seat is trending Labour long-term. There's an Exeter effect of sorts. Not saying he'd lose next time. Leaders should only have safe seats. The same is true for cabinet. That way, you avoid Portillo moments. There was levelling up funding here. Or at least, it was slated. Anyone remember the towns fund (2021)? Doubt it impacted the result, however. 

I don't see a meaningful pro labour trend - they've just replaced liberal as the opposition.

Liberals would have come pretty close here in a poor Tory year like 2001, 2005.

I have to disagree here actually. Labour got 6% back in 2010. Now they're on over 30% there. It gets pretty close to Exeter. It will stay Tory in 2029. It might go Labour this century. Exeter is still a compact city. So a lot live outside it. In seats like Central Devon constituency. I agree about the Lib Dems. 

[batman]

It is true that Labour in the 2024 general election enjoyed some of their very best results in what could be described as exurb seats - seats dominated by or with the strong influence of the further outer suburbs of larger towns & cities. Examples are S Norfolk, SE Cornwall (where I would contend that Labour in all likelihood won by doing particularly well in the areas closest to Plymouth), NW Cambridgeshire, perhaps also Rushcliffe, although that seat actually reaches very close to Nottingham city centre. These seats were all won, and Exmouth & E Exeter was very close. I don't think Central Devon really is such a seat. It's not straightforward to determine exactly where Labour did best & worst there, but there's a strong case that the best Labour scores were actually often in areas furthest away from Exeter, such as Okehampton & Hatherleigh. Further in towards Exeter Labour probably did pretty well in Bovey Tracey, but I doubt they did in the rest of that part of the constituency.

[batman]

Mind you, that having been said one of the very best Tory results was in Arundel & S Downs, the south-eastern end of which is very close to the Brighton & Hove conurbation - no evidence of any demographic transference there!

[sanders]

Oct 10, 2024 11:34:06 GMT batman said:

Mind you, that having been said one of the very best Tory results was in Arundel & S Downs, the south-eastern end of which is very close to the Brighton & Hove conurbation - no evidence of any demographic transference there!

South Downs are a geographical barrier. Any map would show you that. Brighton effect is more east-west really. Peacehaven, Telscombe Cliffs, Shoreham, and Worthing.

[The Bishop]

Oct 10, 2024 11:46:18 GMT sanders said:

Oct 10, 2024 11:34:06 GMT batman said:

Mind you, that having been said one of the very best Tory results was in Arundel & S Downs, the south-eastern end of which is very close to the Brighton & Hove conurbation - no evidence of any demographic transference there!

South Downs are a geographical barrier. Any map would show you that. Brighton effect is more east-west really. Peacehaven, Telscombe Cliffs, Shoreham, and Worthing.

Very true, and stuff like that applies even in today's era of greater mobility.

Compare that seat to Mid Sussex which is much more connected to the coastal conurbation geographically, given the gap in the South Downs there.

[stb12]

If true seat safety was to be a big consideration for the Tory leadership now then there really would be limited options when you see the reduced majorities across the board

You’d be looking at Bob Blackman or ironically just keeping Sunak on as he held Richmond very comfortably

[sanders]

Oct 10, 2024 13:28:56 GMT stb12 said:

If true seat safety was to be a big consideration for the Tory leadership now then there really would be limited options when you see the reduced majorities across the board

You’d be looking at Bob Blackman or ironically just keeping Sunak on as he held Richmond very comfortably

Or just put a Lord in. Sunak did as well as expected. Anyone would have lost post-Truss clusterfuck. Sunak helped the Conservatives keep second. 

[aargauer]

Oct 10, 2024 15:41:25 GMT sanders said:

Oct 10, 2024 13:28:56 GMT stb12 said:

If true seat safety was to be a big consideration for the Tory leadership now then there really would be limited options when you see the reduced majorities across the board

You’d be looking at Bob Blackman or ironically just keeping Sunak on as he held Richmond very comfortably

Or just put a Lord in. Sunak did as well as expected. Anyone would have lost post-Truss clusterfuck. Sunak helped the Conservatives keep second. 

He was absolutely crap.

You need to give people a reason to vote for you. We had absolutely no narrative. Nothing. He had two years and it felt like he was just running down the clock and moving to the next item on his CV.

Truss was unhinged and incompetent but at least she an idea about what the party should offer and how it should differentiate itself.

Our only item in the campaign was basically just begging rock solid Cs to vote Conservative to stop a Labour landslide. Incidentally labours lack of really saying anything either in part explains their lacklustre vote tally.

[right]

Oct 10, 2024 16:08:53 GMT aargauer said:

Oct 10, 2024 15:41:25 GMT sanders said:

Or just put a Lord in. Sunak did as well as expected. Anyone would have lost post-Truss clusterfuck. Sunak helped the Conservatives keep second. 

He was absolutely crap.

You need to give people a reason to vote for you. We had absolutely no narrative. Nothing. He had two years and it felt like he was just running down the clock and moving to the next item on his CV.

Truss was unhinged and incompetent but at least she an idea about what the party should offer and how it should differentiate itself.

Our only item in the campaign was basically just begging rock solid Cs to vote Conservative to stop a Labour landslide. Incidentally labours lack of really saying anything either in part explains their lacklustre vote tally.

Yep, begging rock solid Cs describes my 2024 campaign to a tee

[where2travel]

Oct 9, 2024 23:18:02 GMT carlton43 said:

Oct 9, 2024 22:33:03 GMT Foggy said:

If Mel Stride had somehow made the final two then that might have been a fair point. As it is, I can't see that being a significant factor in the membership run-off.

The July majorities are completely irrelevant.

Both will increase a lot at the next GE.

If they don't increase 'a lot' then no chance of getting close to winning the GE.

So, it doesn't matter at all.

Exactly this. When existing Tory MPs are there knowing they need a couple of hundred more seats to form a Government, a potential leader is hardly worried about their own Tory-held seat now. If they were to lose their seat at the next GE, there's next to no chance the wider party is forming the Government.

Wasn't a similar thing labelled at Thatcher, saying her Finchley seat wasn't ever quite safe enough? Of course it was in practice. During her time as PM, if the Tories lost Finchley there was no way they'd be in Government, so it largely didn't matter.

[No Offence Alan]

Oct 9, 2024 23:18:02 GMT carlton43 said:

Oct 9, 2024 22:33:03 GMT Foggy said:

If Mel Stride had somehow made the final two then that might have been a fair point. As it is, I can't see that being a significant factor in the membership run-off.

The July majorities are completely irrelevant.

Both will increase a lot at the next GE.

If they don't increase 'a lot' then no chance of getting close to winning the GE.

So, it doesn't matter at all.

If their majorities are to increase, then the Reform Party needs to lose votes. Yet you have hitched your wagon to Reform.

[Khunanup]

Oct 10, 2024 11:54:37 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 10, 2024 11:46:18 GMT sanders said:

South Downs are a geographical barrier. Any map would show you that. Brighton effect is more east-west really. Peacehaven, Telscombe Cliffs, Shoreham, and Worthing.

Very true, and stuff like that applies even in today's era of greater mobility.

Compare that seat to Mid Sussex which is much more connected to the coastal conurbation geographically, given the gap in the South Downs there.

Mid Sussex is commuter country, but not south despite its vicinity.

Many, many years ago the process of explaining the natural barrier of the South Downs (and The Weald) was explained by myself to this site and it finally seems to have sunk in.

Good to see.

[carlton43]

Oct 10, 2024 19:44:46 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Oct 9, 2024 23:18:02 GMT carlton43 said:

The July majorities are completely irrelevant.

Both will increase a lot at the next GE.

If they don't increase 'a lot' then no chance of getting close to winning the GE.

So, it doesn't matter at all.

If their majorities are to increase, then the Reform Party needs to lose votes. Yet you have hitched your wagon to Reform.

What is the point you wish to raise caller?