Newark

[stb12]

Newark

[lackeroftalent]

www.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/media/nsdc-redesign/documents-and-images/your-council/your-council/elections/4-july-2024-parliamentary-elections/NoticeOfPollAndPersonsNominatedAndPollingLocations_2024-06-07-14-36.pdf

Con - Robert Jenrick
Lab - Saj Ahmad
LDm - David Watts
Grn - Michael Ackroyd
Rfm - Robert Palmer
WPB - Collan Siddique
English Democrats - Matthew Darrington
Independent Network - Adrian Amer
Ind - Lyn Galbraith

[greenhert]

Jun 7, 2024 19:48:08 GMT lackeroftalent said:

www.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/media/nsdc-redesign/documents-and-images/your-council/your-council/elections/4-july-2024-parliamentary-elections/NoticeOfPollAndPersonsNominatedAndPollingLocations_2024-06-07-14-36.pdf

Con - Robert Jenrick
Lab - Saj Ahmad
LDm - David Watts
Grn - Michael Ackroyd
Rfm - Robert Palmer
WPB - Collan Siddique
English Democrats - Matthew Darrington
Independent Network - Adrian Amer
Ind - Lyn Galbraith

Apart from the 2014 by-election this is the highest number of candidates Newark has ever had. Usually it has 5 at most.

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

I have no idea who Saj Ahmad is, but I think he'll win. It'll be close between him, Jenrick, and Palmer.

[eastmidlandsright]

Adrian Amer is a councillor on for Castle ward on Newark and Sherwood Council, elected as an independent in 2023. He is practicing barrister whose political views are hard to pigeon hole but I suspect he might do reasonably well.

[Rutlander]

The Reform candidate sounds like a ... character
www.thesun.co.uk/news/28734660/reform-candidate-farage-attempted-murder/#:~:text=A%20REFORM%20Party%20candidate%20has,fell%20into%20the%20River%20Trent

[cogload]

[froome]

stb12 I'm surprised this seat doesn't have a poll. It must be potentially close between Labour and Conservative, and possibly (I would think very unlikely) Reform.

[Chris from Brum]

I would really like to see Jenrick come a cropper here, he's done more to damage local democracy than any other minister.

[stb12]

Jun 30, 2024 18:02:21 GMT froome said:

stb12 I'm surprised this seat doesn't have a poll. It must be potentially close between Labour and Conservative, and possibly (I would think very unlikely) Reform.

It strikes me as a seat that has become considerably more Tory than it was before Labour gained it in the 1997 win (someone will no doubt know better than me if boundary changes have played a big part in that), and of course it was one of the few seats that they lost after one term in 2001

However happy to put a poll up especially under current circumstances where we'll likely be seeing a few big Tory majorities built up in recent years totally vanish

[batman]

When Labour won Newark in 1997, it included the fairly Labour-inclined Retford & surrounding areas which were moved back to Bassetlaw in 2010. The seat won by Jenrick & held subsequently is quite a bit more Tory than the pre-2010 version. Newark town itself seems to be trending Tory over the last couple of generations.

[eastmidlandsright]

Jun 30, 2024 19:03:23 GMT stb12 said:

Jun 30, 2024 18:02:21 GMT froome said:

stb12 I'm surprised this seat doesn't have a poll. It must be potentially close between Labour and Conservative, and possibly (I would think very unlikely) Reform.

It strikes me as a seat that has become considerably more Tory than it was before Labour gained it in the 1997 win (someone will no doubt know better than me if boundary changes have played a big part in that), and of course it was one of the few seats that they lost after one term in 2001

However happy to put a poll up especially under current circumstances where we'll likely be seeing a few big Tory majorities built up in recent years totally vanish

Boundary changes were a part of it as the 1983 - 2010 version of the seat included Retford. However the seat has almost certainly swung to the Tories over the last 20 years. 

I think Jenrick will survive but I very much hope that I am wrong.

[right]

Independent Network

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20070/

Workers Party leaflet

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20069/

Reform boilerplate

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20068/

[michaelarden]

Adrian Amer - the former Tory and Liberal candidate?

x.com/GroveConservs

livingonwords.blogspot.com/2012/06/strange-history-of-conservative-adrian.html

[bsjmcr]

Jun 30, 2024 19:40:44 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

Jun 30, 2024 19:03:23 GMT stb12 said:

. 

I think Jenrick will survive but I very much hope that I am wrong.

I’m probably one relatively few people that has him higher if not top of my list of people I’d like to see lose than some of the other usual suspects (Mogg, Mordaunt, etc). Not a household name to most (except perhaps during the scandal when he was housing minister) but to me has no redeeming features - says anything, even the most right wing stuff just for power and attention perhaps to be next Home Sec under Braverman. I almost prefer Braverman - at least nothing surprises me about her and she has her own principles, even if I disagree with them.
Yet this guy was first brought in as a fresh-faced Cameroonite to see off UKIP here a decade ago if I remember correctly…

[Sg1]

Jun 30, 2024 19:40:44 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

Jun 30, 2024 19:03:23 GMT stb12 said:

It strikes me as a seat that has become considerably more Tory than it was before Labour gained it in the 1997 win (someone will no doubt know better than me if boundary changes have played a big part in that), and of course it was one of the few seats that they lost after one term in 2001

However happy to put a poll up especially under current circumstances where we'll likely be seeing a few big Tory majorities built up in recent years totally vanish

Boundary changes were a part of it as the 1983 - 2010 version of the seat included Retford. However the seat has almost certainly swung to the Tories over the last 20 years. 

I think Jenrick will survive but I very much hope that I am wrong.

When I visited in 2014 for the By-Election, I remember quite a lot of new, ordinary new builds. If Labour win here, it'll be on the back of new voters from nearby areas and a weakness in the Conservatives appealing to younger families.

[eastmidlandsright]

Jun 30, 2024 22:15:00 GMT bsjmcr said:

I’m probably one relatively few people that has him higher if not top of my list of people I’d like to see lose than some of the other usual suspects (Mogg, Mordaunt, etc). Not a household name to most (except perhaps during the scandal when he was housing minister) but to me has no redeeming features - says anything, even the most right wing stuff just for power and attention perhaps to be next Home Sec under Braverman. I almost prefer Braverman - at least nothing surprises me about her and she has her own principles, even if I disagree with them.
Yet this guy was first brought in as a fresh-faced Cameroonite to see off UKIP here a decade ago if I remember correctly…

You remember correctly. I was living in this constituency at the time of the 2014 by election and I voted for Roger Helmer because even though I considered him an utter fool he was preferable to Jenrick who even then was clearly a shameless opportunist who would advance any cause if he thought it was in his interest to do so.

[cogload]

[froome]

I have voted for a Labour win, more out of hope than expectation. However, having visited Newark a couple of times in the last year, and passed through the constituency, I can't believe there isn't a latent pool of Labour voters in the town, and while much of the rural area will certainly vote Conservative, Reform will eat into this and possibly tip it.

[right]

Interesting that there's no discussion on the closeness or otherwise of the result.

I suspect Jenrick's call will make a lot of the relatively close shave Kemi had in North West Essex

Result:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001375