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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 17, 2024 6:10:15 GMT
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stb12
Top Poster
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Mansfield
Nov 8, 2024 11:53:08 GMT
via mobile
Post by stb12 on Nov 8, 2024 11:53:08 GMT
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Post by heslingtonian on Nov 8, 2024 20:25:31 GMT
I wonder if Ben Bradley is addicted to standing in elections. The number he has stood in recently is frankly absurd.
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,358
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Post by batman on Nov 8, 2024 21:15:26 GMT
of course absolutely nobody in this forum is addicted to standing in elections.
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Post by sanders on Nov 9, 2024 6:13:03 GMT
of course absolutely nobody in this forum is addicted to standing in elections. If you think the electorate needs your skills and intellect, you should run for election Unfortunately, Bradley doesn't have either and the Tories dodged a bullet with his defeat in July. He's just a pretty obnoxious bloke and while there's a market for that (specially in the red wall), he's too gaffe prone for any serious gig at national level. |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 9, 2024 16:56:11 GMT
Even if Bradley loses, this seat will still vote to the right of Broxtowe, Gedling and Rushcliffe. Nottinghamshire is ahead of the rest of the country with realignment since all the ex-mining areas flipped in the 2010s. The 2019 general election was aesthetically pleasing - Labour winning in the big city and the Tories winning everything else. This seat is more interesting than Ashfield because it changed hands earlier. If I still lived in the East Midlands, I'd vote for Reform since it feels like the right thing to do in these parts to put two fingers up to Sunak. Furthermore the Conservatives still managed to poll 2.4 percentage points above their 2015 result, even in both cases their votes were split (in 2015 by UKIP, who polled 25.1%, and in 2024 by Reform UK who polled 22.8%, more than half again their UK average), and considering that the overall Conservative vote share in the UK in 2015 was 13% higher than in 2024 (36.9% vs 23.9%). This occurred despite the swing to Labour being as high as 21.3%, and Stephen Yemm polled midway between the vote shares Sir Alan Meale managed in 2010 and 2015, both poor years for Labour and in seat whose demographics were shifting away from Labour. North East Derbyshire experienced a similar story, especially with Dronfield being an attractive commuter town for Sheffield workers. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 9, 2024 18:13:51 GMT
of course absolutely nobody in this forum is addicted to standing in elections. If you think the electorate needs your skills and intellect, you should run for election Unfortunately, Bradley doesn't have either and the Tories dodged a bullet with his defeat in July. He's just a pretty obnoxious bloke and while there's a market for that (specially in the red wall), he's too gaffe prone for any serious gig at national level. lol |
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Post by sanders on Nov 9, 2024 18:17:23 GMT
Even if Bradley loses, this seat will still vote to the right of Broxtowe, Gedling and Rushcliffe. Nottinghamshire is ahead of the rest of the country with realignment since all the ex-mining areas flipped in the 2010s. The 2019 general election was aesthetically pleasing - Labour winning in the big city and the Tories winning everything else. This seat is more interesting than Ashfield because it changed hands earlier. If I still lived in the East Midlands, I'd vote for Reform since it feels like the right thing to do in these parts to put two fingers up to Sunak. Furthermore the Conservatives still managed to poll 2.4 percentage points above their 2015 result, even in both cases their votes were split (in 2015 by UKIP, who polled 25.1%, and in 2024 by Reform UK who polled 22.8%, more than half again their UK average), and considering that the overall Conservative vote share in the UK in 2015 was 13% higher than in 2024 (36.9% vs 23.9%). This occurred despite the swing to Labour being as high as 21.3%, and Stephen Yemm polled midway between the vote shares Sir Alan Meale managed in 2010 and 2015, both poor years for Labour and in seat whose demographics were shifting away from Labour. North East Derbyshire experienced a similar story, especially with Dronfield being an attractive commuter town for Sheffield workers. Both 2017 gains for the Tories. Reform vote bigger than the Labour lead in each seat. It feels a lot like 2015 and indeed North East Derbyshire had an identical Labour lead to that year's election in a far better election for Labour nationally. That tells its own story. I was surprised the Tories lost that seat but here we are. |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 11, 2024 17:25:03 GMT
Furthermore the Conservatives still managed to poll 2.4 percentage points above their 2015 result, even in both cases their votes were split (in 2015 by UKIP, who polled 25.1%, and in 2024 by Reform UK who polled 22.8%, more than half again their UK average), and considering that the overall Conservative vote share in the UK in 2015 was 13% higher than in 2024 (36.9% vs 23.9%). This occurred despite the swing to Labour being as high as 21.3%, and Stephen Yemm polled midway between the vote shares Sir Alan Meale managed in 2010 and 2015, both poor years for Labour and in seat whose demographics were shifting away from Labour. North East Derbyshire experienced a similar story, especially with Dronfield being an attractive commuter town for Sheffield workers. Both 2017 gains for the Tories. Reform vote bigger than the Labour lead in each seat. It feels a lot like 2015 and indeed North East Derbyshire had an identical Labour lead to that year's election in a far better election for Labour nationally. That tells its own story. I was surprised the Tories lost that seat but here we are. At first I was slightly surprised but then I looked at other Brexit-heavy seats which were trending towards the Conservatives long-term in the decade preceding this year's election and saw similar patterns-in those seats home ownership rates were steadily rising but there were still noticeably more mortgaged owner-occupiers than outright owner-occupiers, and with mortgage rates doubling or tripling for many during the last 2 years, it proved just as decisive as backlash over the effects of Brexit. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Nov 11, 2024 22:21:26 GMT
of course absolutely nobody in this forum is addicted to standing in elections. I’ve stood for: - Colchester Borough Council 3 times - Redbridge Council 4 times - London Assembly twice (or three times if you count the List separately from constituency) - Parliament twice |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 11, 2024 22:30:34 GMT
of course absolutely nobody in this forum is addicted to standing in elections. I’ve stood for: - Colchester Borough Council 3 times - Redbridge Council 4 times - London Assembly twice (or three times if you count the List separately from constituency) - Parliament twice Amateur! I have stood for Croydon council 15 times and Parliament 6 times. |
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