Mansfield

[stb12]

Mansfield

[stb12]

Presumably Ben Bradley will definitely stand again here now the Mayoral race is lost

[The Bishop]

Though being narrowly defeated even in his "own" patch maybe isn't that great an omen.

[stb12]

May 3, 2024 20:23:55 GMT The Bishop said:

Though being narrowly defeated even in his "own" patch maybe isn't that great an omen.

Indeed, obviously it's different contest and he's built up a strong vote in the parliamentary seat over two elections. But you'd have thought that with his name on the ballot he should have been able to win Mansfield in the Mayoral election even if the national trend made it too hard overall

[greenhert]

SOPN: www.mansfield.gov.uk/downloads/file/6549/notice-of-poll-situation-of-polling-stations-and-statement-of-persons-nominated

Zen Bilas (no description)
Ben Bradley* (Conservative)
Peter Dean (Socialist Labour)
Wesley Milligan (INDEPENDENT-why is this in upper case?)
Karen Seymour (TUSC)
Philip Shields (Green)
Matthew Warnes (Reform UK)
Michael Wyatt (Liberal Democrats)
Steve Yemm (Labour)

[Deleted]

Even if Bradley loses, this seat will still vote to the right of Broxtowe, Gedling and Rushcliffe. Nottinghamshire is ahead of the rest of the country with realignment since all the ex-mining areas flipped in the 2010s. The 2019 general election was aesthetically pleasing - Labour winning in the big city and the Tories winning everything else. This seat is more interesting than Ashfield because it changed hands earlier. If I still lived in the East Midlands, I'd vote for Reform since it feels like the right thing to do in these parts to put two fingers up to Sunak.

[johnloony]

Jun 8, 2024 10:11:23 GMT greenhert said:

SOPN: www.mansfield.gov.uk/downloads/file/6549/notice-of-poll-situation-of-polling-stations-and-statement-of-persons-nominated

Zen Bilas (no description)
Ben Bradley* (Conservative)
Peter Dean (Socialist Labour)
Wesley Milligan (INDEPENDENT-why is this in upper case?)
Karen Seymour (TUSC)
Philip Shields (Green)
Matthew Warnes (Reform UK)
Michael Wyatt (Liberal Democrats)
Steve Yemm (Labour)

Because the SOPN was being typed up by a dilly junior assistant to the assistant to the Deputy Acting Returning Officer

[batman]

Jun 8, 2024 19:25:13 GMT @weld said:

Even if Bradley loses, this seat will still vote to the right of Broxtowe, Gedling and Rushcliffe. Nottinghamshire is ahead of the rest of the country with realignment since all the ex-mining areas flipped in the 2010s. The 2019 general election was aesthetically pleasing - Labour winning in the big city and the Tories winning everything else. This seat is more interesting than Ashfield because it changed hands earlier. If I still lived in the East Midlands, I'd vote for Reform since it feels like the right thing to do in these parts to put two fingers up to Sunak.

why would that be the right thing to do? Labour are likelier to beat Bradley than Reform are. Although it's hypothetical

[Deleted]

Potential Reform gain? UKIP got 25% here in 2015. 

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Valuable endorsement

[maxque]

Jun 22, 2024 20:11:28 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Valuable endorsement

He was re-elected for his last term in 2011 by 67 votes over the man he is now endorsing.

[Deleted]

If Reform are getting 20% nationally (7% more than UKIP in 2015), then surely this is surely a three-way marginal with Labour slight favourites.

Something like LAB 35% RFM 32%, CON 30% OTH 3% wouldn't be too shocking here. The Tory campaign is going very B(r)adl(e)y here I think. 

[rcronald]

Jun 23, 2024 2:23:49 GMT @weld said:

If Reform are getting 20% nationally (7% more than UKIP in 2015), then surely this is surely a three-way marginal with Labour slight favourites.

Something like LAB 35% RFM 32%, CON 30% OTH 3% wouldn't be too shocking here. The Tory campaign is going very B(r)adl(e)y here I think. 

But Bradley is more Reform adjacent than the average Tory MP, so the Reform blow shouldn't land as hard as it would against a generic candidate in the same type of seat.

[batman]

He is. There may be a question as to how much Labour’s attacks on him for having two jobs and standing for another hit home.

[Deleted]

Jun 23, 2024 6:01:54 GMT rcronald said:

Jun 23, 2024 2:23:49 GMT @weld said:

If Reform are getting 20% nationally (7% more than UKIP in 2015), then surely this is surely a three-way marginal with Labour slight favourites.

Something like LAB 35% RFM 32%, CON 30% OTH 3% wouldn't be too shocking here. The Tory campaign is going very B(r)adl(e)y here I think. 

But Bradley is more Reform adjacent than the average Tory MP, so the Reform blow shouldn't land as hard as it would against a generic candidate in the same type of seat.

batman has a point about the double jobbing. If Bradley had his way, he would be three jobs Ben. Those sorts of attacks can cut through, just ask Bob Neill who almost lost the Bromley & Chiselhurst by-election in 2006 to the Lib Dems. 

[Deleted]

Labour gain.

[Khunanup]

Interesting story about one of the candidates here.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgk6lmkvppo

[Deleted]

Now that the woke left have seized this one back, will they rename it Wom*nsfield or something?

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Jul 17, 2024 3:25:38 GMT @weld said:

Now that the woke left have seized this one back, will they rename it Wom*nsfield or something?

....oh that's why there's very few right-wing comedians.

[Deleted]

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