stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 20:55:11 GMT
Loughborough
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 14, 2024 11:39:25 GMT
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 7, 2024 18:55:00 GMT
SOPN - Con, Lab, LD, Green, Reform UK
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 21, 2024 14:58:12 GMT
Feels like a slightly below average Labour result here - swing of 12.8% which is admittedly decent but is more typical of 1997 than 2024 and a majority of under 5k. Especially as this is a university town with a youngish population and you would think Labour would be potentially doing slightly better. Still very much a marginal seat.
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Post by batman on Aug 21, 2024 15:03:58 GMT
that isn't below average though. The average swing in the general election was less than 11%. It may be below average for a Tory-held seat where Labour was the main challenger, but that's different.
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birkinabe
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Post by birkinabe on Aug 21, 2024 15:53:42 GMT
Feels like a slightly below average Labour result here - swing of 12.8% which is admittedly decent but is more typical of 1997 than 2024 and a majority of under 5k. Especially as this is a university town with a youngish population and you would think Labour would be potentially doing slightly better. Still very much a marginal seat.
I don't really see how this would make a below-average swing in this seat surprising, as it would be consistent with Labour doing relatively well with this group of voters in 2017 and 2019 and also probably going slightly backwards with them this time around.
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 21, 2024 17:23:33 GMT
that isn't below average though. The average swing in the general election was less than 11%. It may be below average for a Tory-held seat where Labour was the main challenger, but that's different. Fair point. I probably should have qualified it to say this wasn't one of the larger swings in Conservative/Labour marginal contests. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Aug 24, 2024 7:59:08 GMT
Feels like a slightly below average Labour result here - swing of 12.8% which is admittedly decent but is more typical of 1997 than 2024 and a majority of under 5k. Especially as this is a university town with a youngish population and you would think Labour would be potentially doing slightly better. Still very much a marginal seat.
I don't really see how this would make a below-average swing in this seat surprising, as it would be consistent with Labour doing relatively well with this group of voters in 2017 and 2019 and also probably going slightly backwards with them this time around.
Loughborough isn’t your typical university either and the town is no Nottingham or Leicester. I wouldn’t be surprised, even if the election was in term time, that student turnout and enthusiasm isn’t that high here, given to them they have better things to do, like training for the Olympics… and the private schooled Rugby rah types probably would have been more Tory leaning anyway. The 2017 result here is interesting compared to say Canterbury where there was apparently a lot of student enthusiasm, yet Nicky Morgan, probably one of the worst education secretaries of recent times other than Gove (and pre Williamson/Keegan) held on fairly comfortably even if her majority was halved. Other than the university the town itself clearly has a stubborn conservative base, perhaps a ‘Charnwood effect’ of ‘we’re not Nottingham or Leicester…’ |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 24, 2024 8:45:25 GMT
Labour's result here in 2015 was notably poor even given their generally disappointing showing in Tory marginals at that election.
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