stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 20:53:27 GMT
Hinckley and Bosworth
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 14, 2024 11:44:39 GMT
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on May 28, 2024 11:50:54 GMT
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The leader of the Labour group on Hinckley & Bosworth BC has defected to the Lib Dems.
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Ports
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Post by Ports on May 28, 2024 16:13:52 GMT
Sunak was also in this seat today, for what that's worth.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on May 28, 2024 17:10:24 GMT
If he thought his party was doing well he would certainly not have visited this constituency.
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Post by adlai52 on May 28, 2024 17:29:10 GMT
Why isn't he visiting North West Leicestershire? It's right next door - ditto Loughborough, both very easy to reach for a campaign stop off the motorway.
Both would seem much more obvious targets for a campaign visit, Hinckley should be safe, although Luke Evans is any ally so maybe that has something to do with it?
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steve
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Post by steve on May 28, 2024 19:01:30 GMT
Why isn't he visiting North West Leicestershire? It's right next door - ditto Loughborough, both very easy to reach for a campaign stop off the motorway. Both would seem much more obvious targets for a campaign visit, Hinckley should be safe, although Luke Evans is any ally so maybe that has something to do with it? Anything to avoid running into Andrew Bridgen. |
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birkinabe
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winning here
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 7, 2024 18:41:52 GMT
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 18, 2024 13:28:58 GMT
Interesting one, not sure I trust Thrasher and Rallings notionals here. 2019 actual result was Con 63.9%, Lab 17.3%, LD 16.1%, but the notionals are apparently Con 64.6%, LD 18.2%, Lab 14.2%. The boundary change is pretty minor (losing Markfield and Ratby whilst gaining Appleby Magna).
In the 2021 Leicestershire election, the Lib Dems actually had more strength in Markfield/Ratby than they did in Appleby Magna, whilst Labour had slightly more strength in Appleby. I'm extremely confused as to how Thrasher and Rallings determined that not only are the Lib Dems in second but by a significant margin. Suppose that notional will help the fact that the Lib Dems seem to be taking this seat somewhat seriously; its existence is bizarre though.
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on Jun 18, 2024 15:27:55 GMT
Interesting one, not sure I trust Thrasher and Rallings notionals here. 2019 actual result was Con 63.9%, Lab 17.3%, LD 16.1%, but the notionals are apparently Con 64.6%, LD 18.2%, Lab 14.2%. The boundary change is pretty minor (losing Markfield and Ratby whilst gaining Appleby Magna). In the 2021 Leicestershire election, the Lib Dems actually had more strength in Markfield/Ratby than they did in Appleby Magna, whilst Labour had slightly more strength in Appleby. I'm extremely confused as to how Thrasher and Rallings determined that not only are the Lib Dems in second but by a significant margin. Suppose that notional will help the fact that the Lib Dems seem to be taking this seat somewhat seriously; its existence is bizarre though. Markfield is the strongest Labour area in local elections in H&B and frequently their only area of representation so it doesn't surprise me that the boundary changed have played out as they have. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 18, 2024 15:35:25 GMT
Interesting one, not sure I trust Thrasher and Rallings notionals here. 2019 actual result was Con 63.9%, Lab 17.3%, LD 16.1%, but the notionals are apparently Con 64.6%, LD 18.2%, Lab 14.2%. The boundary change is pretty minor (losing Markfield and Ratby whilst gaining Appleby Magna). In the 2021 Leicestershire election, the Lib Dems actually had more strength in Markfield/Ratby than they did in Appleby Magna, whilst Labour had slightly more strength in Appleby. I'm extremely confused as to how Thrasher and Rallings determined that not only are the Lib Dems in second but by a significant margin. Suppose that notional will help the fact that the Lib Dems seem to be taking this seat somewhat seriously; its existence is bizarre though. Markfield is the strongest Labour area in local elections in H&B and frequently their only area of representation so it doesn't surprise me that the boundary changed have played out as they have. In 2021 Labour got 25% in Markfield (which is leaving the constituency), but got 30% in Appleby (which is coming into it). |
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on Jun 18, 2024 16:01:20 GMT
Markfield is the strongest Labour area in local elections in H&B and frequently their only area of representation so it doesn't surprise me that the boundary changed have played out as they have. In 2021 Labour got 25% in Markfield (which is leaving the constituency), but got 30% in Appleby (which is coming into it). I think you're confusing the Markfield, Desford and Thornton CC division which includes good Lib Dem territory in Desford with the Markfield BC ward which is being transferred out of the constituency and where most of the Labour vote in 2021 would have been. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 18, 2024 17:28:13 GMT
Interesting one, not sure I trust Thrasher and Rallings notionals here. 2019 actual result was Con 63.9%, Lab 17.3%, LD 16.1%, but the notionals are apparently Con 64.6%, LD 18.2%, Lab 14.2%. The boundary change is pretty minor (losing Markfield and Ratby whilst gaining Appleby Magna). In the 2021 Leicestershire election, the Lib Dems actually had more strength in Markfield/Ratby than they did in Appleby Magna, whilst Labour had slightly more strength in Appleby. I'm extremely confused as to how Thrasher and Rallings determined that not only are the Lib Dems in second but by a significant margin. Suppose that notional will help the fact that the Lib Dems seem to be taking this seat somewhat seriously; its existence is bizarre though. Agree. Rallings & Thrasher are showing Labour as 2800 votes down in the notionals compared to actual 2019 result. Given that there are definitely some Labour votes in Appleby, and only 10,000 voters (not actual votes) are lost, they seem to be showing a crushing Labour majority in Markfield in 2019, which I don't believe for a moment. I think this is a case where local election results are misleading - there are undoubtedly Labour voters in national elections in Hinckley which don't show up locally. As I have commented elsewhere YouGov's MRP shows Labour and Liberal Democrats dead heating for second. Still it's clear that the Liberals are putting some effort in here, while Labour aren't, so they should finish second, but probably not very close. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 22, 2024 8:09:01 GMT
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 26, 2024 12:30:07 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jul 1, 2024 19:57:10 GMT
Guess who.is here this evening? Mr Sunak, attempting to rally the masses...
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jul 1, 2024 19:59:13 GMT
3 days out, in a seat with a notional Tory majority of 23,000. Amazing
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Post by observer on Jul 1, 2024 20:00:58 GMT
Guess who.is here this evening? Mr Sunak, attempting to rally the masses... Ooh, a rally. I'm sure Giles Watling will be along shortly to condemn Sunak as a Nazi |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 2, 2024 1:30:55 GMT
Guess who.is here this evening? Mr Sunak, attempting to rally the masses... Ooh, a rally. I'm sure Giles Watling will be along shortly to condemn Sunak as a Nazi Does 30-40 people constitute a rally? |
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Foggy
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Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Jul 2, 2024 4:41:01 GMT
Ooh, a rally. I'm sure Giles Watling will be along shortly to condemn Sunak as a Nazi Does 30-40 people constitute a rally? Even Paris-Dakar has more participants than that! |
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