stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 20:52:47 GMT
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 13, 2024 21:06:09 GMT
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Post by adlai52 on May 29, 2024 14:03:17 GMT
Until 2010 this was a longstanding target for the LibDems, although it always remained out of reach.
Since then Labour has moved into second and the LibDems seem to have shifted their focus to nearby Hinckley.
On current polling the seat would be in play and the demographics of the seat will certainly have shifted.
I suspect a split opposition means that Neil O'Brien holds on with a reduced majority even if the polls don't move much.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 29, 2024 18:21:42 GMT
Until 2010 this was a longstanding target for the LibDems, although it always remained out of reach. Since then Labour has moved into second and the LibDems seem to have shifted their focus to nearby Hinckley. On current polling the seat would be in play and the demographics of the seat will certainly have shifted. I suspect a split opposition means that Neil O'Brien holds on with a reduced majority even if the polls don't move much. Labour has no real base in this constituency, no cllrs and it seems not a very active membership. Any progress will be on the back of national trends but this seems likely to remain blue. |
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Post by mrsir on May 29, 2024 18:31:35 GMT
Until 2010 this was a longstanding target for the LibDems, although it always remained out of reach. Since then Labour has moved into second and the LibDems seem to have shifted their focus to nearby Hinckley. On current polling the seat would be in play and the demographics of the seat will certainly have shifted. I suspect a split opposition means that Neil O'Brien holds on with a reduced majority even if the polls don't move much. The demographic changes here are not all to the Conservatives disadvantage. |
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Post by John Chanin on May 29, 2024 19:03:54 GMT
Until 2010 this was a longstanding target for the LibDems, although it always remained out of reach. Since then Labour has moved into second and the LibDems seem to have shifted their focus to nearby Hinckley. On current polling the seat would be in play and the demographics of the seat will certainly have shifted. I suspect a split opposition means that Neil O'Brien holds on with a reduced majority even if the polls don't move much. Labour has no real base in this constituency, no cllrs and it seems not a very active membership. Any progress will be on the back of national trends but this seems likely to remain blue. This is one of those seats where there is clearly a large possible Labour presence if they were better organized and worked at it. The substantial General Election vote, despite Liberal dominance at local level, illustrates this. My view is that the Liberal dominance in Oadby and Wigston in local elections reflects the usual suburban assertion of difference from the big city they are geographically part of. And Market Harborough is not particularly up market either, and ought to have a significant Labour minority. Be that as it may, the situation as it is will likely return a Conservative MP on a relatively low vote against a split opposition. |
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Post by markgoodair on May 29, 2024 19:20:30 GMT
Hajira Piranie is the Labour party candidate.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 29, 2024 19:42:40 GMT
Labour has no real base in this constituency, no cllrs and it seems not a very active membership. Any progress will be on the back of national trends but this seems likely to remain blue. This is one of those seats where there is clearly a large possible Labour presence if they were better organized and worked at it. The substantial General Election vote, despite Liberal dominance at local level, illustrates this. My view is that the Liberal dominance in Oadby and Wigston in local elections reflects the usual suburban assertion of difference from the big city they are geographically part of. And Market Harborough is not particularly up market either, and ought to have a significant Labour minority. Be that as it may, the situation as it is will likely return a Conservative MP on a relatively low vote against a split opposition. My own suspicion knowing the area pretty well is that the Labour vote in 2017 was a temporary phenomena of the post-coalition period and it was already on a downward trend by 2019 as the Lib Dems began to recover. Labour's performance across the constituency was very poor in last year's LE and as I said they'll rely on national performance not to go backwards again in 2024. They'll remain in second place this time but will likely struggle to maintain that once they're in government. |
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Post by adlai52 on May 30, 2024 8:43:49 GMT
This is one of those seats where there is clearly a large possible Labour presence if they were better organized and worked at it. The substantial General Election vote, despite Liberal dominance at local level, illustrates this. My view is that the Liberal dominance in Oadby and Wigston in local elections reflects the usual suburban assertion of difference from the big city they are geographically part of. And Market Harborough is not particularly up market either, and ought to have a significant Labour minority. Be that as it may, the situation as it is will likely return a Conservative MP on a relatively low vote against a split opposition. My own suspicion knowing the area pretty well is that the Labour vote in 2017 was a temporary phenomena of the post-coalition period and it was already on a downward trend by 2019 as the Lib Dems began to recover. Labour's performance across the constituency was very poor in last year's LE and as I said they'll rely on national performance not to go backwards again in 2024. They'll remain in second place this time but will likely struggle to maintain that once they're in government. It’s a very different seat from the one that was a LibDem target in the late 90s/ early 2000s. There has been an influx of commuters into Harborough itself and the larger new estates around the town, a trend you see in the villages as well. Meanwhile, the Leicester suburbs in the North of the constituency have become more diverse, with many Hindu and Sikh voters more likely to back the Conservatives than in the past. If the result is close, I suspect that the improved tory vote in the areas around Leicester will provide O’Brien with a bit of a firewall. |
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birkinabe
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winning here
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 7, 2024 18:38:57 GMT
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 7, 2024 20:07:31 GMT
Ridiculous "and": Harborough and Leicestersuburb and Leicestersuburb. Were the Boundary Commission on drugs?
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 12, 2024 10:22:14 GMT
Ridiculous "and": Harborough and Leicestersuburb and Leicestersuburb. Were the Boundary Commission on drugs? Oadby & Wigston is a district in its own right. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 12, 2024 21:08:48 GMT
Ridiculous "and": Harborough and Leicestersuburb and Leicestersuburb. Were the Boundary Commission on drugs? As Chris said Oadby & Wigston is not part of Leicester but three separate towns: Oadby, Wigston and South Wigston. They've been linked in a constituency with Market Harborough for decades. The Boundary Commission tried to break that link during the last review but this was opposed by the Conservative party. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 12, 2024 22:33:51 GMT
Ridiculous "and": Harborough and Leicestersuburb and Leicestersuburb. Were the Boundary Commission on drugs? Oadby & Wigston is a district in its own right. How it survived as a tiny district and Sutton Coldfield didn't as a much more reasonably sized one is just beyond, but they've been in the Harborough constituency for decades and adding a load of ands for tiny suburbs is very silly. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
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Post by cogload on Jun 13, 2024 12:23:51 GMT
Where is the colour branding?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 13, 2024 12:53:45 GMT
Where is the colour branding? You wonder if this candidate is a "culture warrior" or if culture war is now the mirror-image of "woke"- a handy catch-all term for things and people you don't like. |
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birkinabe
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winning here
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 13, 2024 14:11:30 GMT
Is it fair to suspect that, at least outside of Greater London and the home counties, this will probably be the best result for the Conservatives in a seat they currently hold relative to their 2019 result?
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batman
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Post by batman on Jun 13, 2024 14:12:35 GMT
It's fair, but not necessarily accurate.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 13, 2024 14:13:42 GMT
Oadby & Wigston is a district in its own right. How it survived as a tiny district and Sutton Coldfield didn't as a much more reasonably sized one is just beyond, but they've been in the Harborough constituency for decades and adding a load of ands for tiny suburbs is very silly. It's actually one of three very small councils located adjacent to each other together with Melton BC and Rutland CC and has a bigger population than both of the others. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 13, 2024 14:23:18 GMT
Oadby & Wigston is a district in its own right. How it survived as a tiny district and Sutton Coldfield didn't as a much more reasonably sized one is just beyond, but they've been in the Harborough constituency for decades and adding a load of ands for tiny suburbs is very silly. I should add that they are not "tiny suburbs". The three largest population centres in the constituency are Wigston (32K), Market Harborough (25K) and Oadby (24K). The old constituency name of Harborough was always a little incongruous as it didn't recognise the most heavily populated part of the seat and indeed doesn't include all of Harborough DC which is distributed between three constituencies. |
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