Gainsborough

[stb12]

Gainsborough

[markgoodair]

Pat O'Connor is the Reform party candidate.

[iain]

www.west-lindsey.gov.uk/elections-voting/general-election-2024

6 candidates: 5 main parties, SDP

[Clark]

Election Calculus have this going Labour which seems way off even though they were in 2nd place in 2019. The Lib Dems made good progress in West Lindsey last year and will probably carry Gainsborough town but not enough to challenge Leigh overall who should become Father of the House in the next parliament. Leigh has benefitted from a split opposition on quite a few occasions before and I think this will be another.

[bsjmcr]

Jun 16, 2024 11:54:40 GMT Clark said:

Election Calculus have this going Labour which seems way off even though they were in 2nd place in 2019. The Lib Dems made good progress in West Lindsey last year and will probably carry Gainsborough town but not enough to challenge Leigh overall who should become Father of the House in the next parliament. Leigh has benefitted from a split opposition on quite a few occasions before and I think this will be another.

I assume the Lib Dem surge at the locals must be on local issues (like Hull?) surely not a surge to remain - this feels like Brexit central (other than Boston/Skegness/South Holland) and that Reform ought to do fairly well too.

[Clark]

Jun 16, 2024 13:00:46 GMT bsjmcr said:

Jun 16, 2024 11:54:40 GMT Clark said:

Election Calculus have this going Labour which seems way off even though they were in 2nd place in 2019. The Lib Dems made good progress in West Lindsey last year and will probably carry Gainsborough town but not enough to challenge Leigh overall who should become Father of the House in the next parliament. Leigh has benefitted from a split opposition on quite a few occasions before and I think this will be another.

I assume the Lib Dem surge at the locals must be on local issues (like Hull?) surely not a surge to remain - this feels like Brexit central (other than Boston/Skegness/South Holland) and that Reform ought to do fairly well too.

I have no idea.

But I'm not sure voting Lib Dem is now mainly associated with remain like it was 5 years ago and before.  I'm sure there are lots of disillusioned Brexit supporting Tories that will vote Lib Dem is a few weeks time - in places like Torbay for example.

[Deleted]

The LDs were making huge strides in local elections in places like Sunderland and Hull even in the period when they were, effectively, a single issue no-Brexit party. Presumably there was very little connection between their national and local support in such places and I suspect that is partly true now. It will be very interesting to see how they do in places like Gainsborough and Torbay, amongst others

[batman]

I'd have thought Torbay is winnable for them, but then that seat can be quite contrary at times

[steve]

West Lindsey has almost always been closely fought apart from during the Coalition era with a strong Lib Dem presence. Control of the council has changed frequently with the Conservatives only gaining control for the first time in 2004 due to the number of Indies who used to be a significant presence.

1973-79 Ind
1978-87 NOC
1987-88. Lib Dem
1987-96 NOC
1996-98. Lib Dem
1998-04. NOC
2004-06. Con
2006-08. Lib Dem
2008-21 Con
2021- NOC

[steve]

In GEs this is as about as safely Conservative as it gets and I can't see that changing. The only time that he was seriously challenged was at the first time of asking in 1983 in the previous iteration of the seat, Gainsborough & Horncastle. The Alliance candidate - and later peer - was the solicitor and broadcaster Andrew Phillips. Known as the "Legal Eagle" he appeared on the Jimmy Young show for more than 25 years. He managed to keep the Cons down to a 51-41 margin so there's something for Leigh's opponents to aim at least.