stb12
Top Poster
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Bassetlaw
Mar 13, 2024 20:46:17 GMT
via mobile
Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 20:46:17 GMT
Bassetlaw
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Post by jm on Mar 21, 2024 23:04:14 GMT
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Post by lackeroftalent on Apr 25, 2024 20:01:04 GMT
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Post by jm on Apr 25, 2024 20:09:51 GMT
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Post by lackeroftalent on Apr 25, 2024 20:37:19 GMT
No, just a Rachel Reeves - available free in packs of your favourite breakfast cereal. |
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Post by carolus on Jun 7, 2024 15:33:38 GMT
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Post by jm on Jun 7, 2024 15:45:33 GMT
Brendan Clarke-Smith (Con) Rachel Reeves (Green) Helen Tamblyn-Saville (Lib Dem) Frank Ward (Reform UK) Jo White (Labour) 2019 result (Rallings and Thrasher) Con 25,941 (54.4%) Lab 13,353 (28.0%) Brexit 5,173 (10.9%) Lib Dem 3,210 (6.7%) Majority 12,588 (26.4%) |
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Post by jm on Jun 7, 2024 15:46:07 GMT
Interestingly, it appears that the Reform UK candidate here (Frank Ward) is the 86 year old father of Claire Ward, Labour Mayor of the East Midlands.
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Post by jm on Jun 28, 2024 0:03:53 GMT
Labour’s Jo White is running an effective campaign here mainly on local issues (similar to her council colleague James Naish in Rushcliffe) with very little mention of national politics in her campaign literature. So far I have received four separate hand-delivered pieces of literature from Labour and nothing from any of the others, other than the freepost. It reminds me of how John Mann would conduct his campaigns but I’m sure that is just a coincidence… I have seen rather a lot of her stakes and posters in windows throughout the constituency (more even than when Mann was the MP, who had a strong support base) but very little Tory activity and surprisingly little from Reform.
I expect a Labour gain here, something like
Labour 45%
Tory 28%
Reform 19%
Lib Dem 5%
Green 3%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 0:12:40 GMT
Tories will be basset by problems here - Clarke-Smith is doomed in this constituency. Something like LAB 40% CON 30% RFM 25% OTH 5% when all's said and done.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jun 28, 2024 18:08:44 GMT
surprisingly little from Reform. To the limited extent that Reform have activists in Nottinghamshire I suspect that they are all campaigning in Ashfield. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 1:26:27 GMT
surprisingly little from Reform. To the limited extent that Reform have activists in Nottinghamshire I suspect that they are all campaigning in Ashfield. Reform don't really need that many activists compared to the big two because 1) they have Farage as leader 2) we have an increasingly 'presidential' system as e.g. Boris Johnson's 2019 result shows and 3) Lee Anderson is a strong candidate. As for this seat, well just look at how well UKIP did in 2015 and that's probably Reform's floor, |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 29, 2024 11:21:17 GMT
Not fully convinced by the above, one thing that this election could well show is that having a ground game can still matter.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
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Post by johng on Jun 29, 2024 12:24:36 GMT
Not fully convinced by the above, one thing that this election could well show is that having a ground game can still matter. For sure.
One thing I am interested in seeing is the number of Tory seats the Lib Dems take on a massive swing vs. the number of deposits they lose (0 in 2010, 334 in 2015, 371 in 2017 and 134 in 2019 for comparison). |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
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Post by bsjmcr on Jun 29, 2024 14:47:25 GMT
Not fully convinced by the above, one thing that this election could well show is that having a ground game can still matter. For sure.
One thing I am interested in seeing is the number of Tory seats the Lib Dems take on a massive swing vs. the number of deposits they lose (0 in 2010, 334 in 2015, 371 in 2017 and 134 in 2019 for comparison). Crikey, that’s the only favourable statistic I have seen for Jo Swinson - she halved the number of lost deposits compared to the last election, while losing her own seat! |
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Bassetlaw
Jun 29, 2024 15:14:05 GMT
via mobile
Post by islington on Jun 29, 2024 15:14:05 GMT
For sure.
One thing I am interested in seeing is the number of Tory seats the Lib Dems take on a massive swing vs. the number of deposits they lose (0 in 2010, 334 in 2015, 371 in 2017 and 134 in 2019 for comparison). Crikey, that’s the only favourable statistic I have seen for Jo Swinson - she halved the number of lost deposits compared to the last election, while losing her own seat! Yes, actually that will be a very interesting measure given that (almost) everyone is telling me that despite achieving little or no advance on their 2019 vote share, the Lib Dems are going to win dozens of seats. I'm still deeply sceptical about this. But if I turn out to be wrong it will show (always assuming that the vote share is stuck at 11 or 12%) that the Lib Dems have successfully followed a strategy of targeting, and polling well in, say 70 seats and winning most of them, whilst losing their deposit, or coming very close to it, virtually everywhere else. So yes, if the LDs' cunning plan works out we'd expect to see hosts of deposits lost, or only narrowly saved; and paradoxically this would be a measure of success for them because it would mean they are focusing their meagre vote share exactly where it's most needed. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jun 29, 2024 15:18:38 GMT
For sure.
One thing I am interested in seeing is the number of Tory seats the Lib Dems take on a massive swing vs. the number of deposits they lose (0 in 2010, 334 in 2015, 371 in 2017 and 134 in 2019 for comparison). Crikey, that’s the only favourable statistic I have seen for Jo Swinson - she halved the number of lost deposits compared to the last election, while losing her own seat! In part down to not standing as many candidates as in the previous few elections (or indeed this time). Am also interested in seeing how many deposits the Tories lose, although they certainly won't in this constituency. |
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Post by jm on Jul 5, 2024 3:57:48 GMT
Labour 18,476
Tory 12,708
Reform 9,751
Lib Dem 1,996
Green 1,947
Lab 41.2% (+13.2)
Con 28.3% (-26.1)
Rfm 21.7% (+10.8)
Ldm 4.4% (-2.3)
Grn 4.3% (New)
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