Amber Valley

[stb12]

Amber Valley

[markgoodair]

Reform have selected Alex Stevenson as their PPC.

[lackeroftalent]

www.ambervalley.gov.uk/media/1292/20240607-sopn-notice-of-poll-sops-amber-valley-constituency.pdf

Con - Nigel Mills -sitting MP
Lab - Linsey Farnsworth - Amber Valley councillor
LDm - Kate Smith - Amber Valley councillor
Grn - Matt McGuinness - Local parish councillor
Rfm - Alex Stevenson - Derbyshire councillor

[No Offence Alan]

Last night I wrote a spreadsheet that compared, for each GB constituency, its 2019 notional results against the notional 2019 figures for all the other GB constituencies.
This and Staffordshire Moorlands were the closest pairing.

[stodge]

Up in Amber Valley over the weekend.

No sign of an election of any kind - no leaflets, no posters, no nothing.

According to Survation, Labour leads 38-30 with Reform on 19 suggesting a swing of 22.5% on December 2019.

Perhaps more is happending in Alfreton, Heanor and Ripley than in Ambergate or Breage but it was still a little odd.

[lackeroftalent]

A few Reform posterboards in Heanor, otherwise have seen a couple of Labour posters in windows here and there. Ripley basically nothing. Can't comment on Alfreton.

Have had one Conservative, one Labour and one Green leaflet since election called.

Had a week where I couldn't go on Youtube without getting a video of the Labour candidate but since the short campaign started, nothing.

[lackeroftalent]

leaflet update:-

Lab - 4 (latest was set side by my wife as "another from Tories" due to big photo of a bedraggled Rishi), Con - 3, Rfm - 3 (though the two local ones were delivered one inside the other), Grn - 2, LDm - 0

Youtube videos from Labour restarted on Saturday but more national than the local candidate ones before.

Posterboards -

Con - 0
Lab - 1 in Ripley and a couple of posters.
Rfm - dozens in Heanor, Langley Mill and Shipley. Seen a couple in Smalley, Horsley Woodhouse and 1 in Ripley. 1 in South Wingfield.
Grn - Half a dozen through Smalley and Horsley Woodhouse. One in Holbrook. And one in South Wingfield at the request of the neighbour of the Reform board.
LDm - one poster in South Wingfield in the house between Rfm and Grn.

[peterski]

Not a surprise that Reform are showing support in Heanor . From the BNP to UKIP and Johnsonian Tories it has history of right wing populism in abundance.

[mrsir]

Reform finishing second here with 12% higher vote share than UKIP got in 2015 is genuinely very impressive considering the constituencies history as a swing seat and then the Conservatives dominance more recently.

[lackeroftalent]

Jul 7, 2024 14:30:43 GMT mrsir said:

Reform finishing second here with 12% higher vote share than UKIP got in 2015 is genuinely very impressive considering the constituencies history as a swing seat and then the Conservatives dominance more recently.

The candidate, Alex Stevenson, is well known and popular in Heanor and Langley Mill. Reform vote strength was running around 40% here, but much more typical numbers (compared to the national picture) across the rest of the constituency.

[bsjmcr]

One has to feel for the Tory incumbent here, not a well known national figure, pushed into a distant third place having had a huge increase in majority at each previous election. He probably (and so would any outside observer) thought he had a significant personal vote but it really shows how shallow Johnson’s ‘Get Brexit Done’ vote is which is, it appears, what much of the Tory boost in these areas last time was.

[rcronald]

Jul 7, 2024 22:36:52 GMT bsjmcr said:

One has to feel for the Tory incumbent here, not a well known national figure, pushed into a distant third place having had a huge increase in majority at each previous election. He probably (and so would any outside observer) thought he had a significant personal vote but it really shows how shallow Johnson’s ‘Get Brexit Done’ vote is which is what much of the Tory boost in these areas last time was.

Maj1.2%->Maj9.2%->Maj18.1%->Maj37%->Maj-11.8%

Bloody hell ☹️