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Post by kvasir on Mar 31, 2024 21:00:46 GMT
Unfortunately AKP took fatih in the end.
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Post by jimboo2017 on Mar 31, 2024 21:39:41 GMT
Erdogan: Local elections are not the end for us, but they are a turning point
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,794
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Post by iain on Mar 31, 2024 22:35:15 GMT
It looks as though the only disappointment(s) for the opposition will be Kırklareli (in European Turkey; an opposition stronghold in national elections) where it appears the Independent mayor will be replaced by the MHP rather than the CHP by ~1% and possibly Hatay (the bit sticking into Syria) which was being defended by the CHP, and was 50/50 in the Presidential election, where the AKP were expected to gain easily and which is completely neck and neck with 97% reported.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,794
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Post by iain on Mar 31, 2024 22:40:53 GMT
A setback for Erdogan.. The opposition retains the municipalities of Istanbul and Ankara A huge understatement - wins by 1, 2 or 3% were seen as massive opposition victories back in 2019. This year the CHP have retained Istanbul by over 10% and in Ankara have won almost double the number of votes as the AKP.
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Post by aargauer on Mar 31, 2024 23:11:51 GMT
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68704375As with London and Brexit As with Oslo and EU membership As with Bangkok and Shinawatra As with Washington and Trump As with St Petersburg and Putin Cosmopolitan latte-drinking tossers are out of step with the national mood. Do you really want to advertise your ignorance so brazenly? The CHP are leading nationally. Istanbul is Erdogan’s traditional power base and votes broadly in line with the nation (~2-3% to the left usually). Same with Ankara, though that is looking like a landslide for Yavas, the popular CHP mayor, at the moment. They still need to pick someone less dreadful than their last candidate who cost them the election. They need a younger centrist who can sound passably nationalistic without being an Islamist, not some Turkish Jeremy Corbyn.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,794
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Post by iain on Mar 31, 2024 23:31:40 GMT
Do you really want to advertise your ignorance so brazenly? The CHP are leading nationally. Istanbul is Erdogan’s traditional power base and votes broadly in line with the nation (~2-3% to the left usually). Same with Ankara, though that is looking like a landslide for Yavas, the popular CHP mayor, at the moment. They still need to pick someone less dreadful than their last candidate who cost them the election. They need a younger centrist who can sound passably nationalistic without being an Islamist, not some Turkish Jeremy Corbyn. It’s probably a fair point that Kılıçdaroğlu was not the best candidate nationally. Would İmamoğlu have won? Maybe. Almost certainly he’d have done better, but whether he’d have got over the top is really tough to say. The idea that Kılıçdaroğlu was in any analogous to Jeremy Corbyn, though … wow … . That is just incredibly wrong.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,794
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Post by iain on Mar 31, 2024 23:34:01 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,232
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Post by cogload on Apr 1, 2024 4:13:56 GMT
Even better for both Yavas and Imamoglu is that their respective city councils are now CHP controlled which gives them access to money in order to run a Presidential campaign.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,232
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Post by cogload on Apr 1, 2024 4:38:05 GMT
Wasn't that bad a guess.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Apr 1, 2024 10:00:37 GMT
I don't think anybody should be surprised by these results. Erdogan himself only sneaked back in 52-48 last year.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,794
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Post by iain on Apr 1, 2024 10:55:27 GMT
I don't think anybody should be surprised by these results. Erdogan himself only sneaked back in 52-48 last year. Erdogan has won 52% in the last three Presidential elections - sure those first two were in the first round, but his only opposition in each case came from clearly ‘Opposition’ (CHP, Iyi, HDP) aligned candidates, so I think it’s fair to say that his electoral performance hasn’t really slipped. Regardless, this clearly has come as a shock to both the AKP and CHP. Erdogan staked a lot on trying to regain Istanbul, and has been crushingly defeated.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,720
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 1, 2024 11:26:17 GMT
Notable that Erdogan has pretty honestly admitted that these are bad results. One does wonder what his next move might be in response.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,527
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Post by johng on Apr 1, 2024 12:44:43 GMT
Overall, it was a pretty poor election for AKP. Erdogan himself has said they need to 'respect the people's will'. It was also, against what some foretasted, actually very good for CHP.
With 100% of votes counted, they are on 37.8% (+7.7 on 2019) whilst AKP is on 35.5 (-8.8 on 2019) nationally.
Istanbul was supposed to be a nail-biter and AKP put a lot of resources into taking it back. In the end, Imamoglu got 51.1% (+2.3) whilst the AKP candidate got just 39.6% (-9.0) - a million vote margin. Imamoglu is in a strong position to run for president in 2028.
Ankara was an even better night for CHP. Yavas got 60.4% (+9.5 on 2019) whilst the AKP candidate got 31.7% (-15.4).
They also retained control of Izmir and Antalya, and gained Bursa with a pretty significant swing
That means Turkey's five largest municipalities, with comfortably over 1/3 of the country's population by themselves, all have CHP mayors
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,253
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 1, 2024 16:37:38 GMT
Surprising - when taking into acCount their present economical situation - were rather the opinionPolls. Hard to say, how the outCome was impacted by Erdogan's anNouncement of this being his last election.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 2, 2024 8:31:12 GMT
I was in Istanbul in November and went up to Taksim Square. Slap bang in the middle was a futuristic display on Turkey's development, which was a giant Erdo puff piece. It must have cost a fortune, and was labelled as a government endeavour.
The invasion of the public space by AKP was evident, although in fairness the CHP were in your face as well.
Hopefully Turkey finds its way back to what it was on its way to being. Erdogan's opening moves weren't actually bad for the country at all, and for all his nonsense, the political stability (with challenges) has done Turkey some good. It doesn't even need to be a return to what once was. 20 years ago, Erdogan was the poster boy of an assumed Islamic Democracy on the lines of European Christian Democracy. That might be a chimera, but it would probably be the compromise that would work best.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,794
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Post by iain on Apr 2, 2024 15:42:28 GMT
In Van (the second biggest Kurdish city in the SE) the winning Dem Party (aka the new HDP) candidate has been disqualified. Rather than rerunning the election, the court has decided to award the election to the second placed candidate, from the AKP. Anyway, in terms of the big prizes, the metro mayors (basically the larger provinces where the mayor is elected by the whole province rather than just one city - you can see a list / map here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_municipalities_in_Turkey):CHP - 14 (+3) AKP - 12 (-3) DEM - 3 - including Van YRP - 1 (+1) The CHP gained Bursa, Balıkesir and Denizli from the AKP, plus Manisa from the MHP (who ran in alliance with AKP), but lost Hatay to the AKP on a low turnout due to a combination of a controversial mayor and a poor response to the devastating earthquake last year. The other mayoralty to change hands was Şanlıurfa, where the Islamist Yeniden Refah Partisi (New Welfare Party) broke through, defeating the AKP.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Apr 2, 2024 16:56:58 GMT
I don't think anybody should be surprised by these results. Erdogan himself only sneaked back in 52-48 last year. Erdogan has won 52% in the last three Presidential elections - sure those first two were in the first round, but his only opposition in each case came from clearly ‘Opposition’ (CHP, Iyi, HDP) aligned candidates, so I think it’s fair to say that his electoral performance hasn’t really slipped. Regardless, this clearly has come as a shock to both the AKP and CHP. Erdogan staked a lot on trying to regain Istanbul, and has been crushingly defeated. It is not that I think that support for Erdogan has slipped but enthusiasm probably has. There are no doubt some who were still willing to give Erdogan the benefit of the doubt in a presidential election but were quite happy to give him a bloody nose in local elections.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,294
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Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 2, 2024 19:36:45 GMT
In Van (the second biggest Kurdish city in the SE) the winning Dem Party (aka the new HDP) candidate has been disqualified. Rather than rerunning the election, the court has decided to award the election to the second placed candidate, from the AKP. Anyway, in terms of the big prizes, the metro mayors (basically the larger provinces where the mayor is elected by the whole province rather than just one city - you can see a list / map here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_municipalities_in_Turkey):CHP - 14 (+3) AKP - 12 (-3) DEM - 3 - including Van YRP - 1 (+1) The CHP gained Bursa, Balıkesir and Denizli from the AKP, plus Manisa from the MHP (who ran in alliance with AKP), but lost Hatay to the AKP on a low turnout due to a combination of a controversial mayor and a poor response to the devastating earthquake last year. The other mayoralty to change hands was Şanlıurfa, where the Islamist Yeniden Refah Partisi (New Welfare Party) broke through, defeating the AKP. The AKP candidate got less than half the vote of the disqualified winning Dem candidate. Dreadful politics. Some background: www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/pro-kurdish-party-challenges-election-outcomes-eastern-turkey-2024-04-02/#:~:text=Abdullah%20Zeydan%2C%20DEM%20candidate%20in,Erdogan's%20AK%20Party%20(AKP).
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,607
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Post by john07 on Apr 2, 2024 23:06:51 GMT
In Van (the second biggest Kurdish city in the SE) the winning Dem Party (aka the new HDP) candidate has been disqualified. Rather than rerunning the election, the court has decided to award the election to the second placed candidate, from the AKP. Anyway, in terms of the big prizes, the metro mayors (basically the larger provinces where the mayor is elected by the whole province rather than just one city - you can see a list / map here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_municipalities_in_Turkey):CHP - 14 (+3) AKP - 12 (-3) DEM - 3 - including Van YRP - 1 (+1) The CHP gained Bursa, Balıkesir and Denizli from the AKP, plus Manisa from the MHP (who ran in alliance with AKP), but lost Hatay to the AKP on a low turnout due to a combination of a controversial mayor and a poor response to the devastating earthquake last year. The other mayoralty to change hands was Şanlıurfa, where the Islamist Yeniden Refah Partisi (New Welfare Party) broke through, defeating the AKP. The AKP candidate got less than half the vote of the disqualified winning Dem candidate. Dreadful politics. Some background: www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/pro-kurdish-party-challenges-election-outcomes-eastern-turkey-2024-04-02/#:~:text=Abdullah%20Zeydan%2C%20DEM%20candidate%20in,Erdogan's%20AK%20Party%20(AKP). Of course, that would never happen here! Well apart from the Bristol South East by-election in 1961 where Tony Benn received nearly 70% of the vote but his Conservative opponent was returned as winner!
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,294
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Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 3, 2024 7:50:27 GMT
Of course, that would never happen here! Well apart from the Bristol South East by-election in 1961 where Tony Benn received nearly 70% of the vote but his Conservative opponent was returned as winner! Again, dreadful politics.
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