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Post by mrpastelito on Mar 13, 2024 17:02:05 GMT
The Soviet Union annexes northern East Prussia as per, but makes it a separate SSR (as with the Baltic states) and doesn't expel the German population. Refugees from the Polish-annexed part of East Prussia arrive, as do new Russian settlers (as in the Baltic states), especially in the urban centres. The official languages of the Prussian SSR are German and Russian.
What happens in 1991?
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Post by yellowfox on Mar 13, 2024 23:24:05 GMT
First question - what's the position of the DDR regarding this in the immediate post-war years? It would seem a bit odd for the USSR to annex a majority German-populated area and not raise questions from its German-populated satellite state.
Assuming that they don't arise the next inflection point comes at the Treaty of Warsaw between West Germany and Poland - would this territory be included in the renunciation of ex-German territory east of Oder-Neisse. At one level you could probably argue that it wouldn't cover Soviet-annexed territory as what competency would Poland have for that?
Assume German reunification happens as in our timeline as the USSR doesn't totally collapse for another year or so and so wouldn't include Kaliningrad, the situation there in 1991 would presumably be the same as in the 15 other SSRs - it would become an independent state, and tbh whether its recognition comes in the Baltic tranche after the August coup or in December is probably immaterial.
The question becomes whether or not the reunified Germany repeals art. 23 of the Basic Law at reunification as it did in our time line, if it doesn't, Kaliningrad could vote itself a state of Germany. Whether or not it would do so, would depend its actual demographic make-up, but assuming its similar to the Baltics I don't see why there wouldn't be a comfortable parliamentary majority for this. If that had been repealed, this might be constitutionally more difficult, but if the will was there I don't see why it wouldn't be possible.
If, for whatever reason, the will isn't there, a Romania-Moldova situation is likely. Kaliningrad would have very close links with Germany and would no doubt be an EU and NATO member by 2004.
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 14, 2024 0:54:32 GMT
In real life the German migrants had quite a substantial impact on the economy and society of the DDR. Them staying in Prussia would likely lead to the DDR being less economically successful than it actually was. The most likely impact of this would be to make German reunification (with or without Prussia) a much more painful process.
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 14, 2024 8:20:55 GMT
There weren't that many people left in Ostpreußen by May 1945, there were estimated to be about 600,000 people left which probably only 250,000 were in the territory given to the Soviet Union. Most of those were elderly, children or women. Over 2 million civilians fled or were evacuated before the end of the war, a substantial number of those remaining in what became the Polish section, were Masurians, highly Germanised and Protestant people of a Polish origin who mainly spoke a Polish dialect at home but that was waning as well. Oddly enough, most of them left Poland for Germany in 1956 as soon as they could mainly to the BRD rather than the DDR.
If you want a Prussian SSR, I would suggest the DDR.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 14, 2024 12:02:27 GMT
Indeed, weren't there periodic suggestions that the GDR should rename itself Prussia?
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 19, 2024 13:44:41 GMT
First question - what's the position of the DDR regarding this in the immediate post-war years? It would seem a bit odd for the USSR to annex a majority German-populated area and not raise questions from its German-populated satellite state. Assuming that they don't arise the next inflection point comes at the Treaty of Warsaw between West Germany and Poland - would this territory be included in the renunciation of ex-German territory east of Oder-Neisse. At one level you could probably argue that it wouldn't cover Soviet-annexed territory as what competency would Poland have for that? Assume German reunification happens as in our timeline as the USSR doesn't totally collapse for another year or so and so wouldn't include Kaliningrad, the situation there in 1991 would presumably be the same as in the 15 other SSRs - it would become an independent state, and tbh whether its recognition comes in the Baltic tranche after the August coup or in December is probably immaterial. The question becomes whether or not the reunified Germany repeals art. 23 of the Basic Law at reunification as it did in our time line, if it doesn't, Kaliningrad could vote itself a state of Germany. Whether or not it would do so, would depend its actual demographic make-up, but assuming its similar to the Baltics I don't see why there wouldn't be a comfortable parliamentary majority for this. If that had been repealed, this might be constitutionally more difficult, but if the will was there I don't see why it wouldn't be possible. If, for whatever reason, the will isn't there, a Romania-Moldova situation is likely. Kaliningrad would have very close links with Germany and would no doubt be an EU and NATO member by 2004. If the German population isn't expelled, and remains a majority of the local population, might the capital continue to be named Königsberg rather than Kaliningrad? |
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Post by mrpastelito on Mar 19, 2024 18:40:48 GMT
I wouldn't have thought so, cf. Karl-Marx-Stadt. Wasn't the GDR the Saxon SSR?  Some musings: The Volga Germans could have been resettled in a Prussian SSR? If there had been a similar demographic change as in the Baltics, there would have been 30-40% Russians in 1989. Considering this and the geographical distance to Germany (and the fact that there are no Germans left in the Polish territories in between), I'm not sure Germany would have been interested in reunification with Kaliningrad? There might have been large scale emigration to Germany instead? |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 23, 2024 6:51:03 GMT
First question - what's the position of the DDR regarding this in the immediate post-war years? It would seem a bit odd for the USSR to annex a majority German-populated area and not raise questions from its German-populated satellite state. The DDR leadership will do what it is fucking well told to. It's work remembering that the resources and value of the Kaliningrad Oblast is basically the warm-water port, cheese-making and a bit of amber. If the German population isn't expelled, and remains a majority of the local population, might the capital continue to be named Königsberg rather than Kaliningrad? Thälmannstadt or if you want to be really obscure Gustav-Sauf-Stadt. |
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Post by johnloony on Mar 23, 2024 12:43:12 GMT
First question - what's the position of the DDR regarding this in the immediate post-war years? It would seem a bit odd for the USSR to annex a majority German-populated area and not raise questions from its German-populated satellite state. The DDR leadership will do what it is fucking well told to. It's work remembering that the resources and value of the Kaliningrad Oblast is basically the warm-water port, cheese-making and a bit of amber. If the German population isn't expelled, and remains a majority of the local population, might the capital continue to be named Königsberg rather than Kaliningrad? Thälmannstadt or if you want to be really obscure Gustav-Sauf-Stadt. and Murmansk was renamed Gustav-Norf-Stadt |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 23, 2024 19:00:40 GMT
I wouldn't have thought so, cf. Karl-Marx-Stadt. Wasn't the GDR the Saxon SSR? I could bore for Germany on the topic, but broadly speaking, yes. Or more accurately, a bunch of Comintern stooges and Great Purge grasses (Honecker, Ulbricht), men with a past to hide (Pieck) and outright scumbags and chancers from Berlin (Mielke) lording it over a load of Saxons. Ulbricht was the only Saxon ever to be let near power. Interestingly, there's finally a groundswell of opinion in favour of removing some of these characters from street names, removing their statues. One of the weirdest aspects of the DDR was their love of repressing Protestantism but also framing it as proto-communism. They were completely obsessed with the Reformation figure Thomas Muentzer, who the average German couldn't pick out of a lineup of one. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 23, 2024 19:04:33 GMT
In real life the German migrants had quite a substantial impact on the economy and society of the DDR. Them staying in Prussia would likely lead to the DDR being less economically successful than it actually was. The most likely impact of this would be to make German reunification (with or without Prussia) a much more painful process. Although the DDR economy was consistently useless and was on the verge of bankruptcy as early as 1976. The one man brave enough to point this out, Gerhard Schuerer, was sidelined for nearly 15 years afterwards. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 23, 2024 19:50:05 GMT
I wouldn't have thought so, cf. Karl-Marx-Stadt. Wasn't the GDR the Saxon SSR? I could bore for Germany on the topic, but broadly speaking, yes. Or more accurately, a bunch of Comintern stooges and Great Purge grasses (Honecker, Ulbricht), men with a past to hide (Pieck) and outright scumbags and chancers from Berlin (Mielke) lording it over a load of Saxons. Ulbricht was the only Saxon ever to be let near power. Interestingly, there's finally a groundswell of opinion in favour of removing some of these characters from street names, removing their statues. One of the weirdest aspects of the DDR was their love of repressing Protestantism but also framing it as proto-communism. They were completely obsessed with the Reformation figure Thomas Muentzer, who the average German couldn't pick out of a lineup of one.
It's on Youtube should you have almost two hours to spare.
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