Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 11, 2024 22:36:06 GMT
Is this a new name for an old seat, or an old name for a new seat? Well, it’s both – clearly this is a renaming of the previous North East Bedfordshire seat, the compass point changed to reflect a slight shift in orientation. But it also revives a name used from 1983 to 1997 for the Bedford based seat, which included all the rural parts of Bedford borough (for a time also called North Bedfordshire) which are now in this seat. Bedford dominated that seat however and the NE Bedfordshire constituency which came into being in 1997 was not its successor, rather the majority of its voters came from the former Mid Bedfordshire and this (rather than the seat named Mid Bedfordshire) was the main successor of that seat.
The population of NE Beds was concentrated in a string of towns along the A1, the Great Northern railway and the River Ivel, Biggleswade being the largest, followed by Sandy, a short distance to the North. South of Biggleswade were the large villages of Stotfold, Arlesey and Langford – around 20,000 voters in an area now removed from this very oversized seat to the new cross-county Hitchin seat. In partial compensation a few rural parishes are gained from Mid Bedfordshire – Old Warden and Southill to the West of Biggleswade and Stagsden and Turvey to the West of Bedford. The loss of these Southern areas and the additions West of Bedford make this seat more Northern than North Eastern and indeed Bedford borough contributes a majority of voters here now, whereas Central Bedfordshire did previously. These changes are not politically neutral either. The only Labour councillors elected in the wards within NE Beds in 2023 were in Arlesey and in Stotfold, there being therefore none now within the wards wholly within this constituency.
Labour did come close to winning a seat in Biggleswade East though. Biggleswade, an old market and industrial town which is the largest town here has historically been marginal, though Labour have not won seats there this century. They can certainly carry the town in a good general election year though, as they would have done clearly in 1997 and most likely will in 2024. It has a markedly more working-class population than the rural parts of the constituency, although it is not predominantly working class.
Sandy, the second main town, is actually slightly more working class but Labour have not been as competitive here, rather this was historically an area of considerable Lib Dem strength, in local elections at least. Independents have become dominant locally here (as also in Biggleswade) but it’s likely Labour can get a decent haul of voters here in a good general election year. The ward covering Sandy has the lowest proportion of professional and managerial workers and the lowest proportion of graduates of any in this constituency. Correspondingly it has the highest proportion of routine workers and the highest proportion of those with no qualifications. Jointly with Biggleswade North it also has the highest proportion of socially rented housing (though the figure (18.6%) is not much above the national average).
Taken together the Biggleswade/Sandy ‘conurbation’ provides a third of the total electorate of this constituency – more if one includes in that the nearby small town of Potton. The remainder, apart from a few Bedford exurbs, are almost entirely rural. This includes the Northill and Potton wards from Central Bedfordshire and a swathe of rural wards from Bedford borough.
The Conservatives still hold a large majority of the council seats in the Bedford section of the seat, many of them overwhelmingly, such as Harrold and Riseley on the border with Northants and Great Barford between Bedford and Sandy. Wyboston ward, which reaches West from the A1 around the Black Cat roundabout deep into sparsely populated countryside voted 76% Conservative against Labour and Lib Dem opposition even in 2023. A couple of wards like Sharnbrook are strongly Independent in local elections but will be just as strongly Conservative when it comes to general elections.
There is a little more political variety in some of the expanded villages and new estates closer in towards Bedford.
Eastcotts ward, South of Bedford, is dominated by Shortstown with its new estates and has been a Lib Dem stronghold. It has a relatively high proportion of social housing and a significant non-White population, almost as much Black as Asian. The areas West of Bedford – Great Denham and Biddenham are more upmarket and Conservative but also with quite ethnically diverse populations. Bromham, a little further out, is probably the most upmarket part of the constituency, a wealthy dormitory village for Bedford which has always sustained a safe Conservative ward while nearby Clapham is more socially mixed and has been capable of electing Labour as well as Lib Dem councillors at times. Clapham & Oakley along with Shortstown provide the only two Lib Dem councillors in this constituency which is two more than Labour has.
Taken as a whole, the rural parts of Bedford borough are as solid an area of Conservative support as can be found anywhere and keep this seat in the Conservative column even in a disastrous year like 1997 when they still outvote the more Labour urban vote in Biggleswade and Sandy.
This constituency has provided a refuge since 2019 for Richard Fuller, ejected by the voters of Bedford in 2017 and before that for Alistair Burt who had lost in Bury in 1997. The first MP for NE Beds was Nick Lyell, previously the MP for Mid Bedfordshire who had moved to that seat in 1983 from Hemel Hempstead – another (perhaps bogus) asylum seeker.
Richard Fuller will defend this ‘new’ seat which will be even safer than NE Beds was. If he loses here there will be very few Conservative seats left for anyone to run to.
The population of NE Beds was concentrated in a string of towns along the A1, the Great Northern railway and the River Ivel, Biggleswade being the largest, followed by Sandy, a short distance to the North. South of Biggleswade were the large villages of Stotfold, Arlesey and Langford – around 20,000 voters in an area now removed from this very oversized seat to the new cross-county Hitchin seat. In partial compensation a few rural parishes are gained from Mid Bedfordshire – Old Warden and Southill to the West of Biggleswade and Stagsden and Turvey to the West of Bedford. The loss of these Southern areas and the additions West of Bedford make this seat more Northern than North Eastern and indeed Bedford borough contributes a majority of voters here now, whereas Central Bedfordshire did previously. These changes are not politically neutral either. The only Labour councillors elected in the wards within NE Beds in 2023 were in Arlesey and in Stotfold, there being therefore none now within the wards wholly within this constituency.
Labour did come close to winning a seat in Biggleswade East though. Biggleswade, an old market and industrial town which is the largest town here has historically been marginal, though Labour have not won seats there this century. They can certainly carry the town in a good general election year though, as they would have done clearly in 1997 and most likely will in 2024. It has a markedly more working-class population than the rural parts of the constituency, although it is not predominantly working class.
Sandy, the second main town, is actually slightly more working class but Labour have not been as competitive here, rather this was historically an area of considerable Lib Dem strength, in local elections at least. Independents have become dominant locally here (as also in Biggleswade) but it’s likely Labour can get a decent haul of voters here in a good general election year. The ward covering Sandy has the lowest proportion of professional and managerial workers and the lowest proportion of graduates of any in this constituency. Correspondingly it has the highest proportion of routine workers and the highest proportion of those with no qualifications. Jointly with Biggleswade North it also has the highest proportion of socially rented housing (though the figure (18.6%) is not much above the national average).
Taken together the Biggleswade/Sandy ‘conurbation’ provides a third of the total electorate of this constituency – more if one includes in that the nearby small town of Potton. The remainder, apart from a few Bedford exurbs, are almost entirely rural. This includes the Northill and Potton wards from Central Bedfordshire and a swathe of rural wards from Bedford borough.
The Conservatives still hold a large majority of the council seats in the Bedford section of the seat, many of them overwhelmingly, such as Harrold and Riseley on the border with Northants and Great Barford between Bedford and Sandy. Wyboston ward, which reaches West from the A1 around the Black Cat roundabout deep into sparsely populated countryside voted 76% Conservative against Labour and Lib Dem opposition even in 2023. A couple of wards like Sharnbrook are strongly Independent in local elections but will be just as strongly Conservative when it comes to general elections.
There is a little more political variety in some of the expanded villages and new estates closer in towards Bedford.
Eastcotts ward, South of Bedford, is dominated by Shortstown with its new estates and has been a Lib Dem stronghold. It has a relatively high proportion of social housing and a significant non-White population, almost as much Black as Asian. The areas West of Bedford – Great Denham and Biddenham are more upmarket and Conservative but also with quite ethnically diverse populations. Bromham, a little further out, is probably the most upmarket part of the constituency, a wealthy dormitory village for Bedford which has always sustained a safe Conservative ward while nearby Clapham is more socially mixed and has been capable of electing Labour as well as Lib Dem councillors at times. Clapham & Oakley along with Shortstown provide the only two Lib Dem councillors in this constituency which is two more than Labour has.
Taken as a whole, the rural parts of Bedford borough are as solid an area of Conservative support as can be found anywhere and keep this seat in the Conservative column even in a disastrous year like 1997 when they still outvote the more Labour urban vote in Biggleswade and Sandy.
This constituency has provided a refuge since 2019 for Richard Fuller, ejected by the voters of Bedford in 2017 and before that for Alistair Burt who had lost in Bury in 1997. The first MP for NE Beds was Nick Lyell, previously the MP for Mid Bedfordshire who had moved to that seat in 1983 from Hemel Hempstead – another (perhaps bogus) asylum seeker.
Richard Fuller will defend this ‘new’ seat which will be even safer than NE Beds was. If he loses here there will be very few Conservative seats left for anyone to run to.
