Post by Robert Waller on Mar 10, 2024 17:08:20 GMT
This profile is based on the fine original by ClevelandYorks, with comments on boundary changes by YL and on renaming by batman. As ever, bjornhattan deserves the credit for the updated 2021 Census calculations for the constituency. The2019 notional results should be credited to Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher on behalf of BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association. However, I take responsibility for the compilation as a whole and mistakes therein.
Up to and including the 2019 general election, Richmond (Yorks) was a geographically large seat spanning about three-quarters of the length of North Yorkshire. It included a great deal more than the eponymous town, which was uniquely named alongside its county in order to differentiate it from the former seat of Richmond (Surrey), now Richmond Park. This is no longer necessary. The Boundary Commission's revised and final proposals in the 2023 review made relatively small changes to the boundaries of this constituency, with the largest being the removal of the town of Bedale and its surroundings, transferred to Thirsk & Malton. However, its parentheses have disappeared, with the name to change to Richmond & Northallerton. In as much as Northallerton is not only the largest town (fairly comfortably) but also the county town of N.Yorkshire, it makes good sense finally to name it in the constituency title.
In wake of the Norman Conquest, a Breton nobleman named Alan Rufus was gifted the expanse of land covered by the medieval wapentakes of Gilling and Hang. This was roughly comparable to the area covered by the district of Richmondshire from 1974 to its abolition in 2023, which in turn made up the majority of Richmond constituency. Rufus went on to establish the town of Richmond, named after Richemont in Normandy, as well as its famous sandstone castle. Over the centuries, the town and its castle achieved new prominence under increasing royal control, even becoming the namesake of Henry VII’s palace at Sheen in Surrey. Indeed, for some reason or another Richmond is the UK’s most frequently copied place name, the capital city of Virginia being the most famous example. Meanwhile, the original Richmond became especially affluent in the 18th Century, with its impressive Georgian architecture exemplified by Frenchgate and the Theatre Royal and making it such an attractive place to visit today.
Of course, tourism in this constituency is not confined to the historic town of Richmond, with a large section of the Yorkshire Dales National Park lying within Richmondshire. This includes Wensleydale, the upper valley of the River Ure, characterised by its rolling green hills, picturesque towns such as Leyburn and impressive natural features like Aysgarth Falls. Other tourist destinations include Middleham Castle in the small tributary valley of Coverdale, Semerwater, the largest lake in the constituency, and the small isolated town of Hawes in the extreme west of the constituency, where the famous Wensleydale cheese is produced. Moving north via Buttertubs Pass, one finds the dale of the River Swale, the fastest flowing river in England. Though less green and more rugged than its neighbour, Swaledale competes in natural beauty and gives host to such charming Norse place names as Gunnerside, Thwaite, Muker, Satron, Smarber and Crackpot. Swaledale sheep, bred for their thick wool and flavoursome meat, as well as lead mined from Arkengarthdale near Reeth, once provided Richmond with much of its prosperity.
Apart from agriculture and tourism, much of Richmondshire’s economy relied on Catterick Garrison, the largest British Army garrison in the world with a population expected to reach 25,000. Contrasting vividly with nearby Richmond and the Dales, this is a sprawling military town engulfing the once rural villages of Hipswell and Scotton and adjoins a large area of social housing at Colburn. The rural land around Richmond and Catterick is comparatively flat and featureless, and many of the villages, especially those in the close vicinity of Darlington, are very wealthy.
This constituency, however, is not coterminous with the former Richmondshire district – it also includes the northern part of the Hambleton district (also incorporated in the new unitary North Yorkshire authority on 2023), centring around the market town of Northallerton. Though less impressive and historic than Richmond, Northallerton is larger in terms of both population (over 13,000, compared to 8,000) and area, and has benefitted from sitting on the main route from London to Edinburgh. It is a mixed town; the south is well-off and the houses large and detached, especially in the contiguous village of Romanby, while the north is somewhat grittier, with social housing and pockets of light industry. Northallerton’s role in transport and trade has diminished since the 19th century, though many upmarket businesses such as the independent Lewis and Cooper food hall, Barker’s department store and a branch of Betty’s tearoom have survived as relics of bygone affluence. Nonetheless, the town remains comfortable in economic terms and the headquarters of North Yorkshire County Council, as formerly of Hambleton District Council, are a major source of employment here.
Surrounding Northallerton is a flat, fertile expanse of arable land called the Vale of Mowbray; this is home to the small market town of Bedale and the RAF base at Leeming (removed in the boundary changes) and a scattering of moneyed villages and large farmsteads. As one reaches the eastern frontier of the constituency, the fringes of the North York Moors mark yet another change in landscape. The bleak valleys of Scugdale and Bilsdale offer scenery quite as dramatic as the Dales in the west, while the remote village of Chop Gate (pronounced Chop Yat) features an obscure German-themed pub. Finally, nestled alongside the Cleveland Hills in the far north east of the constituency, the elegant market towns of Stokesley and Great Ayton (the latter being the birthplace of Captain Cook) house some of the wealthier of Middlesbrough’s commuters and retirees.
Though the constituency offers exceptional diversity in terms of its natural environment, its political history is much less varied. It has been safely Conservative since 1910, subsequently undergoing only minor boundary changes that have removed the areas around Yarm, Masham and Startforth. The constituency’s true-blue status – a result of its deeply rural character, agricultural economy and homogenous, moderately affluent electorate – has provided a base for a series of high-profile Tory MPs. The first of these was Thomas Dugdale, MP from 1929 to 1959, who rose to the post of Minister for Agriculture before becoming embroiled in the Crichel Down affair, a scandal involving the compulsory purchase of land in Dorset. His successor Timothy Kitson was Parliamentary Private Secretary to Prime Minister Edward Heath, followed by Leon Brittan, the Home Secretary from 1983-85 who was pushed to resign as a result of the Westland Affair. In 1989, Brittan reluctantly accepted a role in the European Commission and the resulting by-election was the closest the Conservatives have come to losing this seat in recent times. William Hague, a young Yorkshireman who had gained notoriety as a result of his speech to Conservative Party conference aged just 16, held the seat with a mere 2,634 majority. Had the opposition vote not been split between the candidate of the continuing SDP, local farmer Mike Potter, and the newly formed ‘Social and Liberal Democrats’ then Hague would have been defeated; the Tories would go on to lose every by-election for the next eight years.
In spite of this inauspicious start, Hague rose through the Tory ranks to become leader after the disastrous nationwide defeat to Labour in 1997; while he failed to produce a different result in the ‘quiet landslide’ election of 2001, he did manage to make Richmond the safest Tory seat in the country. After a term as Foreign Secretary in the coalition, Hague made way for another young, ambitious politician much in his own image. Initial disquiet among locals around the Conservatives’ selection of Hampshire businessman Rishi Sunak over Richmondshire councillor Wendy Morton (now MP for Aldridge-Brownhills) has subsided and Sunak was elected with a staggering majority of over 27,000 at the 2019 election.
The seat has even recently appeared as safe as ever; while there has been Lib Dem strength in the towns of Richmond and Stokesley, Northallerton intermittently has returned Labour councillors and there has been a tendency towards local independents in the rural Dales, this has failed to translate into any single opposition party exceeding 25% this century. In the May 2022 North Yorkshire council elections, the inaugural and most recent, the Conservatives won 11 of the 14 divisions within the new bounds of Richmond & Northallerton parliamentary constituency. They did take both in Northallerton, but lost to the Liberal Democrats in Stokesley, to an Independent in Richmond itself, and to a Green in Hipswell & Colburn (by 8 votes). The departing Bedale also voted a Conservative in with a share of fully 63.4%, but while the notional results for the reduced new constituency lower the numerical majority by nearly 3,000, the percentage lead only by an insignificant 0.3%. The Tories also held on in the one North Yorkshire byelection within this seat since 2022 – in Hutton Rudby & Osmotherly on Thursday 28 September 2023, where their share actually rose by 9% (though the Liberal Democrats went up by 14% in second place).
Analysing the demographics of the constituency in the details of the 2021 national census, there are few extremes that in themselves account for Richmond & Northallerton’s ingrained Conservatism. It is in the top decile as far as the proportion of residents over 65 years of age is concerned – 26.2% seat-wide. This reached a peak in Northallerton South & Leeming Bar MSOA (32.7%) and in rural areas such as Rudby & Ingleby (35.2%) and Upper Dales, around Hawes (32.5%). It is well known that as average age increases, so does the general tendency to Conservatism as well as conservatism. There is one glaring anomaly in the age map; fewer than 10% are of pension age in the military Catterick Garrison & Colburn MSOA.
Another aid to the Tories lies in the above average owner occupation rate. Again the main exceptions to this pattern include Catterick Garrison & Colburn, where over 17% is social rented and 36% ‘privately rented or rent free’. The social housing rate in Northallerton North & East is also over 17%, and 20% in Great Ayton and Stokesley - concentrated in the south western section of the latter and the north western part of the former. The seat as a whole is over 96% white, also generally fuelling a tendency to support the Conservative party.
However the percentages in professional and managerial occupations, and holding university degrees, are only slightly above average. The highest MSOA for the former indicator is Hutton & Ingleby (nearly 47% compared with the average of less than 37%), while the most working class (routine and semi-routine job) areas are Northallerton North & East and Catterick Garrison & Colburn. The same pattern pertains for educational qualifications – the most degrees in Rudby & Ingleby, the fewest in the military zone and the more working class parts of Northallerton. However, there is an unusual pattern in Stokesley and Great Ayton, where there are an average proportion with degrees but a high level of those with no educational qualifications – looking at the smallest output areas these are largely in the previously identified sections of social housing in those two communities (each of which have a 2021 population of nearly 5,000, large enough to sustain distinct differences between their neighbourhoods).
Overall, the key to the strength of the Conservative party probably lies in the local political culture as well as the age, ethnic and housing tenure patterns. This is after all the sort of splendid countryside set amongst small towns and villages that logically encourages sentiments against changes– and the major exception is military, associated with the Tories traditional advantage on the issue of defence.
Sunak’s subsequent rise, to become Chancellor of the Exchequer and Prime Minister, suggests he will be safe here next time – even if his government and his party go down to a catastrophic defeat. Of course, that eventuality may lead to the member soon seeking alternative new challenges, and to another byelection here among the broadest set of acres in Yorkshire.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 26.2% 55/575
Owner occupied 68.2% 227/575
Private rented 18.9% 254/575
Social rented 13.0% 383/575
White 96.1% 128/575
Black 0.6% 433/575
Asian 1.8% 413/575
Managerial & professional 36.7% 182/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.6% 359/575
Degree level 35.0% 211/575
No qualifications 15.4% 418/575
Students 4.1% 552/575
General Election 2019: Richmond (Yorks)
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Rishi Sunak 36,693 63.6 −0.3
Labour Thomas Kirkwood 9,483 16.4 −7.0
Liberal Democrats Philip Knowles 6,989 12.1 +6.2
Green John Yorke 2,500 4.3 +1.2
Yorkshire Laurence Waterhouse 1,077 1.9 −1.8
Independent Nick Jardine 961 1.7
C Majority 27,210 47.2 +6.7
2019 electorate 82,601
Turnout 57,723 69.9 -0.6
Conservative hold
Swing 3.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Richmond & Northallerton consists of
88.1% of Richmond
0.6% of Thirsk and Malton
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_525_Richmond%20and%20Northallerton_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Up to and including the 2019 general election, Richmond (Yorks) was a geographically large seat spanning about three-quarters of the length of North Yorkshire. It included a great deal more than the eponymous town, which was uniquely named alongside its county in order to differentiate it from the former seat of Richmond (Surrey), now Richmond Park. This is no longer necessary. The Boundary Commission's revised and final proposals in the 2023 review made relatively small changes to the boundaries of this constituency, with the largest being the removal of the town of Bedale and its surroundings, transferred to Thirsk & Malton. However, its parentheses have disappeared, with the name to change to Richmond & Northallerton. In as much as Northallerton is not only the largest town (fairly comfortably) but also the county town of N.Yorkshire, it makes good sense finally to name it in the constituency title.
In wake of the Norman Conquest, a Breton nobleman named Alan Rufus was gifted the expanse of land covered by the medieval wapentakes of Gilling and Hang. This was roughly comparable to the area covered by the district of Richmondshire from 1974 to its abolition in 2023, which in turn made up the majority of Richmond constituency. Rufus went on to establish the town of Richmond, named after Richemont in Normandy, as well as its famous sandstone castle. Over the centuries, the town and its castle achieved new prominence under increasing royal control, even becoming the namesake of Henry VII’s palace at Sheen in Surrey. Indeed, for some reason or another Richmond is the UK’s most frequently copied place name, the capital city of Virginia being the most famous example. Meanwhile, the original Richmond became especially affluent in the 18th Century, with its impressive Georgian architecture exemplified by Frenchgate and the Theatre Royal and making it such an attractive place to visit today.
Of course, tourism in this constituency is not confined to the historic town of Richmond, with a large section of the Yorkshire Dales National Park lying within Richmondshire. This includes Wensleydale, the upper valley of the River Ure, characterised by its rolling green hills, picturesque towns such as Leyburn and impressive natural features like Aysgarth Falls. Other tourist destinations include Middleham Castle in the small tributary valley of Coverdale, Semerwater, the largest lake in the constituency, and the small isolated town of Hawes in the extreme west of the constituency, where the famous Wensleydale cheese is produced. Moving north via Buttertubs Pass, one finds the dale of the River Swale, the fastest flowing river in England. Though less green and more rugged than its neighbour, Swaledale competes in natural beauty and gives host to such charming Norse place names as Gunnerside, Thwaite, Muker, Satron, Smarber and Crackpot. Swaledale sheep, bred for their thick wool and flavoursome meat, as well as lead mined from Arkengarthdale near Reeth, once provided Richmond with much of its prosperity.
Apart from agriculture and tourism, much of Richmondshire’s economy relied on Catterick Garrison, the largest British Army garrison in the world with a population expected to reach 25,000. Contrasting vividly with nearby Richmond and the Dales, this is a sprawling military town engulfing the once rural villages of Hipswell and Scotton and adjoins a large area of social housing at Colburn. The rural land around Richmond and Catterick is comparatively flat and featureless, and many of the villages, especially those in the close vicinity of Darlington, are very wealthy.
This constituency, however, is not coterminous with the former Richmondshire district – it also includes the northern part of the Hambleton district (also incorporated in the new unitary North Yorkshire authority on 2023), centring around the market town of Northallerton. Though less impressive and historic than Richmond, Northallerton is larger in terms of both population (over 13,000, compared to 8,000) and area, and has benefitted from sitting on the main route from London to Edinburgh. It is a mixed town; the south is well-off and the houses large and detached, especially in the contiguous village of Romanby, while the north is somewhat grittier, with social housing and pockets of light industry. Northallerton’s role in transport and trade has diminished since the 19th century, though many upmarket businesses such as the independent Lewis and Cooper food hall, Barker’s department store and a branch of Betty’s tearoom have survived as relics of bygone affluence. Nonetheless, the town remains comfortable in economic terms and the headquarters of North Yorkshire County Council, as formerly of Hambleton District Council, are a major source of employment here.
Surrounding Northallerton is a flat, fertile expanse of arable land called the Vale of Mowbray; this is home to the small market town of Bedale and the RAF base at Leeming (removed in the boundary changes) and a scattering of moneyed villages and large farmsteads. As one reaches the eastern frontier of the constituency, the fringes of the North York Moors mark yet another change in landscape. The bleak valleys of Scugdale and Bilsdale offer scenery quite as dramatic as the Dales in the west, while the remote village of Chop Gate (pronounced Chop Yat) features an obscure German-themed pub. Finally, nestled alongside the Cleveland Hills in the far north east of the constituency, the elegant market towns of Stokesley and Great Ayton (the latter being the birthplace of Captain Cook) house some of the wealthier of Middlesbrough’s commuters and retirees.
Though the constituency offers exceptional diversity in terms of its natural environment, its political history is much less varied. It has been safely Conservative since 1910, subsequently undergoing only minor boundary changes that have removed the areas around Yarm, Masham and Startforth. The constituency’s true-blue status – a result of its deeply rural character, agricultural economy and homogenous, moderately affluent electorate – has provided a base for a series of high-profile Tory MPs. The first of these was Thomas Dugdale, MP from 1929 to 1959, who rose to the post of Minister for Agriculture before becoming embroiled in the Crichel Down affair, a scandal involving the compulsory purchase of land in Dorset. His successor Timothy Kitson was Parliamentary Private Secretary to Prime Minister Edward Heath, followed by Leon Brittan, the Home Secretary from 1983-85 who was pushed to resign as a result of the Westland Affair. In 1989, Brittan reluctantly accepted a role in the European Commission and the resulting by-election was the closest the Conservatives have come to losing this seat in recent times. William Hague, a young Yorkshireman who had gained notoriety as a result of his speech to Conservative Party conference aged just 16, held the seat with a mere 2,634 majority. Had the opposition vote not been split between the candidate of the continuing SDP, local farmer Mike Potter, and the newly formed ‘Social and Liberal Democrats’ then Hague would have been defeated; the Tories would go on to lose every by-election for the next eight years.
In spite of this inauspicious start, Hague rose through the Tory ranks to become leader after the disastrous nationwide defeat to Labour in 1997; while he failed to produce a different result in the ‘quiet landslide’ election of 2001, he did manage to make Richmond the safest Tory seat in the country. After a term as Foreign Secretary in the coalition, Hague made way for another young, ambitious politician much in his own image. Initial disquiet among locals around the Conservatives’ selection of Hampshire businessman Rishi Sunak over Richmondshire councillor Wendy Morton (now MP for Aldridge-Brownhills) has subsided and Sunak was elected with a staggering majority of over 27,000 at the 2019 election.
The seat has even recently appeared as safe as ever; while there has been Lib Dem strength in the towns of Richmond and Stokesley, Northallerton intermittently has returned Labour councillors and there has been a tendency towards local independents in the rural Dales, this has failed to translate into any single opposition party exceeding 25% this century. In the May 2022 North Yorkshire council elections, the inaugural and most recent, the Conservatives won 11 of the 14 divisions within the new bounds of Richmond & Northallerton parliamentary constituency. They did take both in Northallerton, but lost to the Liberal Democrats in Stokesley, to an Independent in Richmond itself, and to a Green in Hipswell & Colburn (by 8 votes). The departing Bedale also voted a Conservative in with a share of fully 63.4%, but while the notional results for the reduced new constituency lower the numerical majority by nearly 3,000, the percentage lead only by an insignificant 0.3%. The Tories also held on in the one North Yorkshire byelection within this seat since 2022 – in Hutton Rudby & Osmotherly on Thursday 28 September 2023, where their share actually rose by 9% (though the Liberal Democrats went up by 14% in second place).
Analysing the demographics of the constituency in the details of the 2021 national census, there are few extremes that in themselves account for Richmond & Northallerton’s ingrained Conservatism. It is in the top decile as far as the proportion of residents over 65 years of age is concerned – 26.2% seat-wide. This reached a peak in Northallerton South & Leeming Bar MSOA (32.7%) and in rural areas such as Rudby & Ingleby (35.2%) and Upper Dales, around Hawes (32.5%). It is well known that as average age increases, so does the general tendency to Conservatism as well as conservatism. There is one glaring anomaly in the age map; fewer than 10% are of pension age in the military Catterick Garrison & Colburn MSOA.
Another aid to the Tories lies in the above average owner occupation rate. Again the main exceptions to this pattern include Catterick Garrison & Colburn, where over 17% is social rented and 36% ‘privately rented or rent free’. The social housing rate in Northallerton North & East is also over 17%, and 20% in Great Ayton and Stokesley - concentrated in the south western section of the latter and the north western part of the former. The seat as a whole is over 96% white, also generally fuelling a tendency to support the Conservative party.
However the percentages in professional and managerial occupations, and holding university degrees, are only slightly above average. The highest MSOA for the former indicator is Hutton & Ingleby (nearly 47% compared with the average of less than 37%), while the most working class (routine and semi-routine job) areas are Northallerton North & East and Catterick Garrison & Colburn. The same pattern pertains for educational qualifications – the most degrees in Rudby & Ingleby, the fewest in the military zone and the more working class parts of Northallerton. However, there is an unusual pattern in Stokesley and Great Ayton, where there are an average proportion with degrees but a high level of those with no educational qualifications – looking at the smallest output areas these are largely in the previously identified sections of social housing in those two communities (each of which have a 2021 population of nearly 5,000, large enough to sustain distinct differences between their neighbourhoods).
Overall, the key to the strength of the Conservative party probably lies in the local political culture as well as the age, ethnic and housing tenure patterns. This is after all the sort of splendid countryside set amongst small towns and villages that logically encourages sentiments against changes– and the major exception is military, associated with the Tories traditional advantage on the issue of defence.
Sunak’s subsequent rise, to become Chancellor of the Exchequer and Prime Minister, suggests he will be safe here next time – even if his government and his party go down to a catastrophic defeat. Of course, that eventuality may lead to the member soon seeking alternative new challenges, and to another byelection here among the broadest set of acres in Yorkshire.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 26.2% 55/575
Owner occupied 68.2% 227/575
Private rented 18.9% 254/575
Social rented 13.0% 383/575
White 96.1% 128/575
Black 0.6% 433/575
Asian 1.8% 413/575
Managerial & professional 36.7% 182/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.6% 359/575
Degree level 35.0% 211/575
No qualifications 15.4% 418/575
Students 4.1% 552/575
General Election 2019: Richmond (Yorks)
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Rishi Sunak 36,693 63.6 −0.3
Labour Thomas Kirkwood 9,483 16.4 −7.0
Liberal Democrats Philip Knowles 6,989 12.1 +6.2
Green John Yorke 2,500 4.3 +1.2
Yorkshire Laurence Waterhouse 1,077 1.9 −1.8
Independent Nick Jardine 961 1.7
C Majority 27,210 47.2 +6.7
2019 electorate 82,601
Turnout 57,723 69.9 -0.6
Conservative hold
Swing 3.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Richmond & Northallerton consists of
88.1% of Richmond
0.6% of Thirsk and Malton
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_525_Richmond%20and%20Northallerton_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 32861 | 63.3% |
| Lab | 8530 | 16.4% |
| LD | 6475 | 12.5% |
| Green | 1976 | 3.8% |
| YP | 1077 | 2.1% |
| Ind | 961 | 1.9% |
| Con Majority | 24331 | 46.9% |