Post by bungle on Feb 25, 2024 13:07:27 GMT
Beverley and Holderness
Beverley and Holderness CC was created for the 1997 election as part of a wider realignment to accommodate an extra seat awarded to the soon-to-be-abolished and unlamented County of Humberside. As part of this it made sense to focus on the new unitary local government boundaries. By far the largest of these was the restored East Riding of Yorkshire where this constituency takes a leading role. Beverley’s status as a county town is very palpable with all of the administrative trappings such as assize courts and a County Hall created over centuries in order to play that role for the East Riding of Yorkshire (and Humberside for 22 years). Yet compared to nearby Hull it is also quite small with a population of only 30,000, so for recent parliamentary purposes it has always been paired with either large amounts of rural territory or Hull suburbs to reach the necessary electoral quota.
This wasn’t always the case. As a county town it drew parliamentary representation as a borough from 1563. Beverley was always a relatively prosperous town throughout its history, such that in the 15th Century the town could afford to build a magnificent ‘merchants’ church’ of St Mary’s to such a standard that it holds its own against the more famous Minster. Indeed, the Minster was founded in the 8th Century and has always acted as a magnet for visitors bringing their money. It is the chief architectural delight of Beverley, of such finery and scale that many assume it is a cathedral. The late Alec Clifton-Taylor stated it was the finest non-cathedral church outside of Westminster. The surrounding streets give off a distinct Barchester feeling. This is most apt as Beverley was the constituency where in 1868 Anthony Trollope spent "the most wretched fortnight of my manhood” standing for election as a Liberal candidate. The borough was pretty rotten by then; between 1857 and 1868 there six election petitions lodged with three successful. Trollope came bottom of the poll; the election was then voided and the borough’s right to elect MPs was abolished.
It wasn’t until 1950 that Beverley regained its name as a constituency but this was a vast rural seat which only lasted for 5 years. Beverley town then become part of partially rural and suburban constituency called Haltemprice (named after an old priory and farm near Cottingham) where it remained until 1983. This seat saw Beverley and its rural hinterland to the north paired with ever growing comfortable and mainly middle class Hull suburbs in Cottingham, Kirk Ella and Hessle. As such it was a safe Conservative seat. The Beverley constituency which replaced Haltemprice in 1983 had remarkably similar boundaries and returned substantial Conservative majorities in 1983, 87 and 92. There was nothing to worry the Conservatives here.
That long history of easy electoral success for the Tories across the East Riding was suddenly exposed in the 1997 election. In its first outing as Beverley and Holderness, the previous MP for Beverley, James Cran, was elected by only 1,211 over Labour. In 2001 this dropped even further to 781. It would be easy to assume the boundary changes were the cause and these Labour voters came from Holderness, but this is far from the case. There is a subtlety to the demographic mixes and geography across this constituency rather than homogenous blocks. Beverley is a prosperous county town with fine restaurants and excellent amenities. In the centre and along the Molescroft Road it feels like Salisbury or Bury St Edmunds and here many traditional Tory voters will be found. But it also has some significant council estates to its south and east of the railway line. The town is also attractive to public sector workers and university types from Hull who will never vote Conservative. In local elections Beverley had a long history of Alliance/Lib Dem activism in the old Beverley Borough wards. Labour also held their own too. The East Riding unitary wards of St Mary’s and Minster & Woodmansey are more competitive with three way battles being the recent norm. Since the coalition years the Tories had been winning these with a precarious sub 40% of the vote thanks to Lib Dem unpopularity nationally. In 2016 the Lib Dems shook off the past with a spectacular by-election performance in St Mary’s which they then followed up on to take all 3 seats in 2019. In 2023 they did the same in Minster and Woodmansey.
What is even more remarkable in this renaissance of the Lib Dems is their assault on the rural territory to the north of Beverley town. Beverley Rural ward is an archetypical East Riding safe Tory division consisting of tiny but prosperous villages like South Dalton (home to a fine Michelin starred restaurant) and farming interests such as the well-respected agricultural college at Bishop Burton. This ward had always voted Conservative until a by-election in 2022 gave the Lib Dems their way in. Winning with nearly 60% of the vote created a bridgehead to take all 3 seats in 2023 (cf. with St Mary’s in 2016 and also Bridlington North in 2019). Local activism clearly pays off, but what impact will this have on a parliamentary seat? It is hard to say – but if Tory voters in wards like this are prepared to look elsewhere (which some must have done in 1997/2001) it is a barometer that all is not completely safe here. .
These three Beverley wards comprise around half of the electorate of the constituency (37,000). We are now in an era where constituency names are getting longer with small places are getting a name check. For once, the addition of Holderness is appropriate and helpful for there are 34,000 electors for whom Holderness is an obvious identity and for whom Beverley is a distant town. The three wards which comprise this part of the constituency confirm that impression – for they are Mid Holderness, South East Holderness and South West Holderness. There is also a North Holderness ward focused on the seaside town of Hornsea. This had been part of Beverley and Holderness CC up until present, but this time is being removed to Bridlington and the Wolds CC. These 8,500 electors helped swell the Conservative vote last time so the boundary changes will see a reduction in the Tory majority of around 2 – 3,000.
So what or where is Holderness? It is the very flat land between the River Hull in the west and the North Sea. Inland it has an appearance similar to the Fenland/Wash landscapes in East Anglia with few trees, enormous arable fields and tiny villages and smallholdings. It also consists of a long stretch of North Sea coastline which the coming of the railways opened up for seaside tourism in places like Hornsea and Withernsea to its south. The Holderness coast sweeps down into the Humber Estuary at the dramatic spit head Spurn Point. This has few voters but much wildlife. Coastal erosion is a real problem here. Vast areas of land such as the wonderfully named Sunk Island are just about at sea level and require increasing levels of protection. Many small settlements have already been lost as this fascinating post from swanarcadian indicates .
Given its geography and topography, Holderness is relatively unknown and insular: it isn’t on the way to anywhere else. Like the flat farming marshland and coast of Lincolnshire, this is an area that was strongly Brexit and usually provides good levels of support for the Conservatives in its myriad of villages with names like Burton Pidsea, Skirlaugh and Withernwick. These are typical of the Mid Holderness ward which is vast and lacks any urban element. These are not prosperous villages of the type found on the Wolds or those nearer to Beverley and Hull. There is deprivation to be found here with many families on lower median incomes who struggle to access properly local employment. Politically the Mid Holderness ward has been reliably Conservative for the want of a clear challenger but it is clear there are decent numbers of non-Tory voters here when the national circumstances are propitious.
The overall lack of prosperity in Holderness is most noticeable in the town of Withernsea. In the 19th Century this small seaside village was turned into a developer’s paradise as the railway link from Hull unlocked its seaside resort potential. This was never a smart development like Scarborough or Whitby – it was mainly brick boarding houses and artisan terraces followed by typically modest early 20th century bungalows. All North Sea seaside resorts struggled in the era of package holidays abroad and some proved more resilient than others. Withernsea wasn’t one of those. The axing of the railway in 1964 had a huge impact and the town went into a spiral of decline. The town’s cheaper housing profile (and concomitant prices) resulted in some serious dumping of problem families from elsewhere in Yorkshire in the 1990s. The impact lingers on and the town is within the top 10% national deprivation levels. That said, many others of modest means actively choose to retire here as the cost of living is affordable. The town is now going through a period of regeneration. Visitors are returning with some very popular caravan parks being situated here and along the coast towards Aldbrough. Withernsea itself is quite politically mixed with pockets of support for most main parties including Reform/UKIP. That said, the Conservatives have always been comfortable winners of the South East Holderness ward thanks to strong levels of support in the rural hinterland.
Just east of Hull is situated the small town of Hedon. It is easy to miss it as it is now rather overshadowed by its large neighbour but in the medieval period Hedon was the Humber river port. As such it grew in stature and obtained borough status in the 15th Century which was only abolished in 1974. It has a population of some 7,000 and is a charming town with many fine buildings, including its elegant church (‘the King of Holderness’ to compete with the ’Queen of Holderness’ at Patrington nearby). The ward of South West Holderness is focused largely on Hedon. The Tories usually win here but there are plenty of non-Tory voters here if they can converge on a candidate. Independents and Lib Dems have done well here previously in local elections but in 2023 Labour won a seat here.
The present MP is Graham Stuart, who is currently Minister of State for Energy Security and Net Zero. He was first elected in 2005 when the previous Conservative MP decided two close shaves were enough. That year the Tory vote continued to flatline at just over 40% with Stuart’s majority of 2,581 only secured due to a decline in the Labour vote. That trend has accelerated with Labour losing over a third of its vote in 2010, mainly to the benefit of the Lib Dems. In 2015 the Lib Dems collapsed but most notable was UKIP picking up 17% of the vote. The absence of UKIP in 2017 chiefly benefitted the Tories and in 2019 Stuart managed to obtain a majority in excess of 20,000. Labour are the clear challengers here but wisely haven’t designated it a target seat – a swing of some 18% would be needed for a shock win. But could they win? It is possible that if everything fell right – a strong Reform challenge, tactical voting from Lib Dems and Greens – that this might just happen. A huge challenge but not impossible. History provides us with some illumination – in the last 140 years Holderness has only voted for one non-Tory MP. In 1922 Audley Bowdler contested the seat for Liberals. He was an outsider from Lancashire against a long standing incumbent. The Times were dismissive of his chances; "The Conservatives hold on Holderness is not believed to be seriously endangered. The farmers may be cross, but many of them have voted Conservative all their lives and will not easily break with their political traditions.” His victory, on a swing of 16% was a surprise revolt. Could what happened in 1922 happen again in 2024? It is usually a fair assumption that farmers will stay loyal to the Tories here despite any frustrations. However, recent national polling is suggestive that farmers are now cross enough this time to vote elsewhere in substantial numbers. We shall see.
Graham Stuart is most likely to fight again. Denis Healy, perennial parliamentary candidate and St Mary’s councillor, stands for the Lib Dems. Roger Hoe, a local businessman from Cottingham and candidate for Cottingham North ward in 2023, will contest here for Reform. Labour and Greens are yet to select at this point in time.
