Post by Robert Waller on Feb 19, 2024 22:32:54 GMT
This is a mixture of the original by sirbenjamin, a first paragraph on boundary changes by Pete Whitehead, and extra and updated material by myself
Greenwich & Woolwich was a bit over quota and in the initial, revised and final proposals of the Boundary Commission this was rectified by the removal of Glyndon ward (in the Plumstead area) to Erith & Thamesmead. This was more or less a reversal of the 2010 boundary changes which added that ward. Glyndon is a very safe Labour ward but its move had far more effect on the almost-but-not-quite marginal Erith & Thamesmead than it did here.
The Greenwich and Woolwich constituency comprises the north western portion of the Royal Borough of Greenwich in South East London; the borough gaining 'Royal' status in 2012 as part of the Diamond Jubilee.
As home to a number of landmarks, it is one of the few London seats outside the very centre that attracts significant numbers of visitors from afar. Maritime Greenwich includes the Cutty Sark and the former Royal Naval College, while the O2 arena, previously the controversial Millennium Dome, has defined the landscape of the North Greenwich peninsula for as long as it has been there and is visible from some distance away.
In Greenwich Park (once the terminus of a circuitous branch line) can be found the Royal Observatory, and the unobtrusive passage of the Prime Meridian through the birthplace of GMT, affords a souvenir store an excuse to brand itself 'the first shop in the world'.
Further eastwards, the seat is home to the historic Woolwich dockyard and the Royal Artillery Barracks that were home to Lee Rigby before his murder in 2013. On a happier note, the barracks provide excellent events facilities for the Armed Forces and UK defence sector.
At its western edge, the Greenwich-Lewisham border is a strange one, failing to consistently follow the natural boundary of the river Ravensbourne where it joins the Thames, resulting in bits of Deptford being in the Royal Borough rather than Lewisham. The odd border also means that the seat extends very close to Lewisham station, but excludes most of Blackheath.
While the seat is predominantly a riverside one, the inland areas include Charlton, home to the Valley where the football team isn't Athletic enough to win matches and consequently finds itself struggling in the third tier of English football (this was originally written in 2022 and is still true in 2024).
With a majority of over 18,000 in 2019 and 2024, MP Matthew Pennycook would appear to have a typically safe London seat, as did his predecessor Nick Raynsford, but historically things have been far more varied:
Pre-1997 Greenwich and Woolwich gave their names to two separate seats, both of which were held by the SDP in the 1980s. In Woolwich, John Cartwright (not that one) defected from Labour in 1981 then held his seat at two General Elections under his new colours. Rosie Barnes won the Greenwich seat in a 1987 by-election and held on at the GE that year, but by 1992 both Greenwich and Woolwich had been won back by Labour, despite resilient performances from the two 'Independent SDP' candidates as they had by then become.
(An earlier constituency, Woolwich West, was actually held by current Father of the House Peter Bottomley for the Conservatives in the 1970s, though most of this territory ended up in what is now the Eltham seat.)
To further confuse those unsure which 'wich' is which, Woolwich also historically included an exclave north of the Thames, which disappeared with the London Government Act of 1963, but lingered on in the Woolwich East parliamentary seat until 1974. North Greenwich is technically further north than North Woolwich, but is, of course, south of the Thames.
What were once considered desirable affluent suburbs - the industrial area around Woolwich docks aside - are now, for the most part, generic London housing, with a high proportion of private and social renting. Even so, with strong transport links to the City and to Canary Wharf, one might expect there to be a few more Tories and Liberals here than there appear to be.
In the most recent Greenwich borough elections, in May 2022, all the wards in the newly expanded Greenwich & Woolwich constituency elected full slates of Labour councillors. One of these, Blackheath Westcombe, could be described consistently marginal, as it had returned split Labour-Tory representation at every local election since 2002. However in 2022 this run of five successive splits ended with Labour gaining the solitary Conservative seat (not only in the ward but in the whole constituency in the 2018 borough elections), ousting incumbent Geoffrey Brighty by a margin of 549 votes. This was especially disappointing for the Tories in that the new ward boundaries, in force for the first time in 2022, extended the ward south into Blackheath Park, a very affluent area formerly in Sutcliffe & Middle Park ward. (I owe this detailed information to the splendid knowledge and analysis of London borough wards by Adam Gray). The new constituency boundaries follow the old wards, though. Nevertheless the result in the new lines still shows Labour strengthening in the Greenwich borough part of Blackheath, traditionally part of the constituency with the most established affluence.
Most of the other wards were overwhelmingly won by Labour in 2022 – the two named after Charlton and the three named after Woolwich all by at least three to one compared with the Conservatives, though several saw at least the top placed Green candidate come a little closer. However the Greens did do better still and approach Labour’s share in some of the Greenwich named wards. In Greenwich Park (Old Greenwich, the Cutty Sark, the village, the meridian) the top Green secured a 35% share and was only 379 behind Labour’s lower candidate. In East Greenwich (overspill from the rapid growth of new housing in Greenwich peninsula) it was even closer, with 42% for the top Green and only a 68 vote gap to the third Labour councillor elected. It seems only a matter of time (with Labour presumably entering national government before the 2026 London elections) that the Greens will win seats on Greenwich council, although a significant advance in the parliamentary constituency may be a harder and less immediate prospect for them. However Labour did easily win in Greenwich Peninsula ward itself (Millennium Dome, much new housing around it) and in Greenwich Creekside (both sides of the Ravensbourne where it enters the Thames, more new housing development).
The boundary changes, with the removal of the very working class inland Glyndon neighbourhood, had demographic effects on the census figures for the Greenwich & Woolwich division. The 2021 census managerial and professional percentage rose from 42% to nearly 45%, which was enough to place the seat 47th out of 575 in the rank order within England and Wales. With the aberrant exception of the Woolwich Arsenal MSOA (70% prof/man, with 38% in the ‘higher’ bracket) this occupational group is predominantly to be found in the Greenwich area in the north-western corner of the constituency – 54% in Peninsula West, 52% in Peninsula East, 55% in Greenwich (village) East, 51% in Town & Park, 59% in Creekside, 58% in the older housing in Blackheath Standard & Village. By contrast the prof/man figure is only 30% in Charlton Riverside & Woolwich Dockyard and at its lowest in Woolwich West (26%) – Glyndon, the departed area, was only 23%.
Greenwich & Woolwich became slightly more White, but still has a high proportion of Asian and especially Black residents (and these especially of African descent or origin). This is also visible in detail in the small area census figures, and presents something of a mirror image of the socio-economic class analysis, at a neighbourhood level at least (this is not to say that there aren’t a substantial number of the Black middle classes, as next door in Erith & Thamesmead). The highest Black concentrations are to be found in Woolwich West (32%), Woolwich South (31% )- it is next door to the departed Glyndon, which is also 31% on this variable), and Charlton Riverside and Woolwich Dockyard (31%). By contrast 75% in Westcombe Park & Maze Hill are White, 66% in Greenwich East, 67% in Greenwich Town & Park, 58% in Peninsula West – and 57% in Woolwich Arsenal, an isolated pocket of new and/or redeveloped riverside development.
The rank relating to the proportion with degrees increased still further, from 25th to 21st. Overall this is 55.4%, but exceeds that on the Peninsula (63 to 64% in the two MSOAs), 65% in Greenwich East, 62% in Westcombe Park, 69.5% in Woolwich Arsenal. Nowhere is the proportion of graduates below the national average though, or the proportion with no educational qualifications above that norm.
A really striking demographic finding is that only 8% of the population is over 65 years old, which places Greenwich & Woolwich 56th out of 575 on this account. In some of the new developments there are hardly any pensioners: in Greenwich Peninsula East MSOA, for example the figure for over 65s is 3.4% in Woolwich Arsenal 4.8%. The age concentration is particularly notable in the 35-49 year range in which the constituency has the 7th highest proportion in England and Wales. There are only average numbers of children under 16 in most areas, and far lower in Woolwich Arsenal (less than 11%), a particular ‘paradise’ for the working-age groups.
Greenwich and Woolwich fits many of the criteria for an ideal stronghold for the 21st century Labour party. It is multi-ethnic but also highly educated, with fashionable new residential area for young(ish) urban professionals, liberal social views and wishing to Remain in the EU in 2016 (and thereafter? – the Liberal Democrat share nearly doubled between 2017 and the 2019 general elections) – this added to 55% across the whole borough but was significantly higher within the Greenwich and Woolwich constituency. The results by ward were published by the council
www.royalgreenwich.gov.uk/info/200159/election_results/1775/2016_eu_referendum_results/2
which reveal massive Remain percentages in Blackheath Westcombe (70%), Peninsula (69%) and Greenwich West (76%) – the type of neighbourhoods that have continued to burgeon since 2016. In the short and medium term this looks like one of the safest Labour seats in the land, and if/when a Labour government becomes unpopular, even then the opposition looks likely to be split between Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Green. In 2024 Greenwich & Woolwich one of several good performances by the Greens in south east London, moving forward into second place with a small technical swing from Labour - but nowhere near challenging for victory at this stage.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Aged 65+ 8.1% 560/575
Aged 35-49 24.8% 7/575
Owner occupied 37.1% 548/575
Private rented 30.7% 66/575
Social rented 32.2% 25/575
White 55.3% 519/575
Black 20.0% 20/575
Asian 13.9% 106/575
Managerial & professional 44.7% 47/575
Routine & Semi-routine 16.2% 502/575
Degree level 55.4% 21/575
No qualifications 12.9% 510/575
Students 9.7% 101/575
General Election 2024: Greenwich and Woolwich
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Matthew Pennycook 23,999 56.2 +1.2
Green Stacy Smith 5,633 13.2 +8.6
Conservative Jonathan Goff 4,863 11.4 –11.3
Liberal Democrats Chris Annous 3,865 9.0 –5.6
Reform UK Abdoul Ndiaye 3,305 7.7 +5.4
Workers Party Sheikh Raquib 570 1.3 N/A
Independent Niko Omilana 311 0.7 N/A
Climate Priyank Bakshi 173 0.4 N/A
Lab Majority 18,366 43.0 +10.7
Turnout 42,719 58.1 –9.7
Registered electors 73,573
Labour hold
Swing 3.7 Lab to Green
General Election 2019: Greenwich and Woolwich
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Matthew Pennycook 30,185 56.8 -7.6
Conservative Thomas Turrell 11,721 22.1 -3.3
Liberal Democrats Rhian O'Connor 7,253 13.7 +6.6
Green Victoria Rance 2,363 4.4 +1.4
Brexit Party Kailash Trivedi 1,228 2.3 New
CPA Eunice Odesanmi 245 0.5 New
Independent Shushil Gaikwad 125 0.2 New
Lab Majority 18,464 34.8 -4.3
Turnout 53,120 66.4 -2.4
Registered electors 79,997
Labour hold
Swing 2.1 Lab to C, 7.1 Lab to LD
Boundary Changes
Greenwich and Woolwich consists of
87.4% of Greenwich and Woolwich
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_140_Greenwich%20and%20Woolwich_Landscape.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
Greenwich & Woolwich was a bit over quota and in the initial, revised and final proposals of the Boundary Commission this was rectified by the removal of Glyndon ward (in the Plumstead area) to Erith & Thamesmead. This was more or less a reversal of the 2010 boundary changes which added that ward. Glyndon is a very safe Labour ward but its move had far more effect on the almost-but-not-quite marginal Erith & Thamesmead than it did here.
The Greenwich and Woolwich constituency comprises the north western portion of the Royal Borough of Greenwich in South East London; the borough gaining 'Royal' status in 2012 as part of the Diamond Jubilee.
As home to a number of landmarks, it is one of the few London seats outside the very centre that attracts significant numbers of visitors from afar. Maritime Greenwich includes the Cutty Sark and the former Royal Naval College, while the O2 arena, previously the controversial Millennium Dome, has defined the landscape of the North Greenwich peninsula for as long as it has been there and is visible from some distance away.
In Greenwich Park (once the terminus of a circuitous branch line) can be found the Royal Observatory, and the unobtrusive passage of the Prime Meridian through the birthplace of GMT, affords a souvenir store an excuse to brand itself 'the first shop in the world'.
Further eastwards, the seat is home to the historic Woolwich dockyard and the Royal Artillery Barracks that were home to Lee Rigby before his murder in 2013. On a happier note, the barracks provide excellent events facilities for the Armed Forces and UK defence sector.
At its western edge, the Greenwich-Lewisham border is a strange one, failing to consistently follow the natural boundary of the river Ravensbourne where it joins the Thames, resulting in bits of Deptford being in the Royal Borough rather than Lewisham. The odd border also means that the seat extends very close to Lewisham station, but excludes most of Blackheath.
While the seat is predominantly a riverside one, the inland areas include Charlton, home to the Valley where the football team isn't Athletic enough to win matches and consequently finds itself struggling in the third tier of English football (this was originally written in 2022 and is still true in 2024).
With a majority of over 18,000 in 2019 and 2024, MP Matthew Pennycook would appear to have a typically safe London seat, as did his predecessor Nick Raynsford, but historically things have been far more varied:
Pre-1997 Greenwich and Woolwich gave their names to two separate seats, both of which were held by the SDP in the 1980s. In Woolwich, John Cartwright (not that one) defected from Labour in 1981 then held his seat at two General Elections under his new colours. Rosie Barnes won the Greenwich seat in a 1987 by-election and held on at the GE that year, but by 1992 both Greenwich and Woolwich had been won back by Labour, despite resilient performances from the two 'Independent SDP' candidates as they had by then become.
(An earlier constituency, Woolwich West, was actually held by current Father of the House Peter Bottomley for the Conservatives in the 1970s, though most of this territory ended up in what is now the Eltham seat.)
To further confuse those unsure which 'wich' is which, Woolwich also historically included an exclave north of the Thames, which disappeared with the London Government Act of 1963, but lingered on in the Woolwich East parliamentary seat until 1974. North Greenwich is technically further north than North Woolwich, but is, of course, south of the Thames.
What were once considered desirable affluent suburbs - the industrial area around Woolwich docks aside - are now, for the most part, generic London housing, with a high proportion of private and social renting. Even so, with strong transport links to the City and to Canary Wharf, one might expect there to be a few more Tories and Liberals here than there appear to be.
In the most recent Greenwich borough elections, in May 2022, all the wards in the newly expanded Greenwich & Woolwich constituency elected full slates of Labour councillors. One of these, Blackheath Westcombe, could be described consistently marginal, as it had returned split Labour-Tory representation at every local election since 2002. However in 2022 this run of five successive splits ended with Labour gaining the solitary Conservative seat (not only in the ward but in the whole constituency in the 2018 borough elections), ousting incumbent Geoffrey Brighty by a margin of 549 votes. This was especially disappointing for the Tories in that the new ward boundaries, in force for the first time in 2022, extended the ward south into Blackheath Park, a very affluent area formerly in Sutcliffe & Middle Park ward. (I owe this detailed information to the splendid knowledge and analysis of London borough wards by Adam Gray). The new constituency boundaries follow the old wards, though. Nevertheless the result in the new lines still shows Labour strengthening in the Greenwich borough part of Blackheath, traditionally part of the constituency with the most established affluence.
Most of the other wards were overwhelmingly won by Labour in 2022 – the two named after Charlton and the three named after Woolwich all by at least three to one compared with the Conservatives, though several saw at least the top placed Green candidate come a little closer. However the Greens did do better still and approach Labour’s share in some of the Greenwich named wards. In Greenwich Park (Old Greenwich, the Cutty Sark, the village, the meridian) the top Green secured a 35% share and was only 379 behind Labour’s lower candidate. In East Greenwich (overspill from the rapid growth of new housing in Greenwich peninsula) it was even closer, with 42% for the top Green and only a 68 vote gap to the third Labour councillor elected. It seems only a matter of time (with Labour presumably entering national government before the 2026 London elections) that the Greens will win seats on Greenwich council, although a significant advance in the parliamentary constituency may be a harder and less immediate prospect for them. However Labour did easily win in Greenwich Peninsula ward itself (Millennium Dome, much new housing around it) and in Greenwich Creekside (both sides of the Ravensbourne where it enters the Thames, more new housing development).
The boundary changes, with the removal of the very working class inland Glyndon neighbourhood, had demographic effects on the census figures for the Greenwich & Woolwich division. The 2021 census managerial and professional percentage rose from 42% to nearly 45%, which was enough to place the seat 47th out of 575 in the rank order within England and Wales. With the aberrant exception of the Woolwich Arsenal MSOA (70% prof/man, with 38% in the ‘higher’ bracket) this occupational group is predominantly to be found in the Greenwich area in the north-western corner of the constituency – 54% in Peninsula West, 52% in Peninsula East, 55% in Greenwich (village) East, 51% in Town & Park, 59% in Creekside, 58% in the older housing in Blackheath Standard & Village. By contrast the prof/man figure is only 30% in Charlton Riverside & Woolwich Dockyard and at its lowest in Woolwich West (26%) – Glyndon, the departed area, was only 23%.
Greenwich & Woolwich became slightly more White, but still has a high proportion of Asian and especially Black residents (and these especially of African descent or origin). This is also visible in detail in the small area census figures, and presents something of a mirror image of the socio-economic class analysis, at a neighbourhood level at least (this is not to say that there aren’t a substantial number of the Black middle classes, as next door in Erith & Thamesmead). The highest Black concentrations are to be found in Woolwich West (32%), Woolwich South (31% )- it is next door to the departed Glyndon, which is also 31% on this variable), and Charlton Riverside and Woolwich Dockyard (31%). By contrast 75% in Westcombe Park & Maze Hill are White, 66% in Greenwich East, 67% in Greenwich Town & Park, 58% in Peninsula West – and 57% in Woolwich Arsenal, an isolated pocket of new and/or redeveloped riverside development.
The rank relating to the proportion with degrees increased still further, from 25th to 21st. Overall this is 55.4%, but exceeds that on the Peninsula (63 to 64% in the two MSOAs), 65% in Greenwich East, 62% in Westcombe Park, 69.5% in Woolwich Arsenal. Nowhere is the proportion of graduates below the national average though, or the proportion with no educational qualifications above that norm.
A really striking demographic finding is that only 8% of the population is over 65 years old, which places Greenwich & Woolwich 56th out of 575 on this account. In some of the new developments there are hardly any pensioners: in Greenwich Peninsula East MSOA, for example the figure for over 65s is 3.4% in Woolwich Arsenal 4.8%. The age concentration is particularly notable in the 35-49 year range in which the constituency has the 7th highest proportion in England and Wales. There are only average numbers of children under 16 in most areas, and far lower in Woolwich Arsenal (less than 11%), a particular ‘paradise’ for the working-age groups.
Greenwich and Woolwich fits many of the criteria for an ideal stronghold for the 21st century Labour party. It is multi-ethnic but also highly educated, with fashionable new residential area for young(ish) urban professionals, liberal social views and wishing to Remain in the EU in 2016 (and thereafter? – the Liberal Democrat share nearly doubled between 2017 and the 2019 general elections) – this added to 55% across the whole borough but was significantly higher within the Greenwich and Woolwich constituency. The results by ward were published by the council
www.royalgreenwich.gov.uk/info/200159/election_results/1775/2016_eu_referendum_results/2
which reveal massive Remain percentages in Blackheath Westcombe (70%), Peninsula (69%) and Greenwich West (76%) – the type of neighbourhoods that have continued to burgeon since 2016. In the short and medium term this looks like one of the safest Labour seats in the land, and if/when a Labour government becomes unpopular, even then the opposition looks likely to be split between Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Green. In 2024 Greenwich & Woolwich one of several good performances by the Greens in south east London, moving forward into second place with a small technical swing from Labour - but nowhere near challenging for victory at this stage.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Aged 65+ 8.1% 560/575
Aged 35-49 24.8% 7/575
Owner occupied 37.1% 548/575
Private rented 30.7% 66/575
Social rented 32.2% 25/575
White 55.3% 519/575
Black 20.0% 20/575
Asian 13.9% 106/575
Managerial & professional 44.7% 47/575
Routine & Semi-routine 16.2% 502/575
Degree level 55.4% 21/575
No qualifications 12.9% 510/575
Students 9.7% 101/575
General Election 2024: Greenwich and Woolwich
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Matthew Pennycook 23,999 56.2 +1.2
Green Stacy Smith 5,633 13.2 +8.6
Conservative Jonathan Goff 4,863 11.4 –11.3
Liberal Democrats Chris Annous 3,865 9.0 –5.6
Reform UK Abdoul Ndiaye 3,305 7.7 +5.4
Workers Party Sheikh Raquib 570 1.3 N/A
Independent Niko Omilana 311 0.7 N/A
Climate Priyank Bakshi 173 0.4 N/A
Lab Majority 18,366 43.0 +10.7
Turnout 42,719 58.1 –9.7
Registered electors 73,573
Labour hold
Swing 3.7 Lab to Green
General Election 2019: Greenwich and Woolwich
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Matthew Pennycook 30,185 56.8 -7.6
Conservative Thomas Turrell 11,721 22.1 -3.3
Liberal Democrats Rhian O'Connor 7,253 13.7 +6.6
Green Victoria Rance 2,363 4.4 +1.4
Brexit Party Kailash Trivedi 1,228 2.3 New
CPA Eunice Odesanmi 245 0.5 New
Independent Shushil Gaikwad 125 0.2 New
Lab Majority 18,464 34.8 -4.3
Turnout 53,120 66.4 -2.4
Registered electors 79,997
Labour hold
Swing 2.1 Lab to C, 7.1 Lab to LD
Boundary Changes
Greenwich and Woolwich consists of
87.4% of Greenwich and Woolwich
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_140_Greenwich%20and%20Woolwich_Landscape.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Lab | 26043 | 55.0% |
| Con | 10760 | 22.7% |
| LD | 6902 | 14.6% |
| Grn | 2176 | 4.6% |
| BxP | 1089 | 2.3% |
| Oths | 370 | 0.8% |
| Majority | 15283 | 32.3% |
