Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
|
Post by Harry Hayfield on May 18, 2024 16:11:26 GMT
And this is why I have sold my October 17th contracts on a virtual betting site and bought 2025 contracts
|
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on May 31, 2024 17:02:39 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Jun 7, 2024 16:05:45 GMT
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
|
Post by YL on Jun 14, 2024 16:22:09 GMT
12-13 June
Lab 41 (-1)
Con 19 (-3)
Reform 17 (+1)
Lib Dem 11 (+2)
Green 6 (+1)
SNP 3 (nc)
|
|
|
|
Post by woollyliberal on Jun 14, 2024 18:09:31 GMT
5 polls with fieldwork dates of 12-13 June. The averages are:
Lab 40.6
Con 18.8
Ref 16.6
LD 12.0
|
|
|
|
Post by edgbaston on Jun 14, 2024 18:11:51 GMT
5 polls with fieldwork dates of 12-13 June. The averages are: Lab 40.6 Con 18.8 Ref 16.6 LD 12.0 When was the last UK election when no party got between 30% and 40% of the vote |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Jun 14, 2024 18:16:34 GMT
5 polls with fieldwork dates of 12-13 June. The averages are: Lab 40.6 Con 18.8 Ref 16.6 LD 12.0 When was the last UK election when no party got between 30% and 40% of the vote General election? 1983 |
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,046
|
Post by nyx on Jun 14, 2024 18:50:22 GMT
5 polls with fieldwork dates of 12-13 June. The averages are: Lab 40.6 Con 18.8 Ref 16.6 LD 12.0 When was the last UK election when no party got between 30% and 40% of the vote Depending on how you define it, 2017: Labour only got 39.99% of the vote across the entire UK in 2017, but they got 41.02% of the vote from Great Britain. Vote share in Great Britain is probably the more relevant statistic considering polls only cover GB, so Labour's polling average of 40.6% is less than what they got in 2017. |
|
|
|
Post by stodge on Jun 14, 2024 19:10:49 GMT
Looking at the data, the headline figures are based on what is called TURNOUT & RECALL WEIGHTING.
Using what they call STANDARD WEIGHTING, Labour have 42%, Conservatives 19%, Reform 16% and Liberal Democrat 12%.
|
|
|
|
Post by woollyliberal on Jun 14, 2024 20:19:27 GMT
When was the last UK election when no party got between 30% and 40% of the vote Depending on how you define it, 2017: Labour only got 39.99% of the vote across the entire UK in 2017, but they got 41.02% of the vote from Great Britain. Vote share in Great Britain is probably the more relevant statistic considering polls only cover GB, so Labour's polling average of 40.6% is less than what they got in 2017. This is the level of nerdiness we want here. Anything else is just amaturish. |
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
|
Post by cogload on Jun 21, 2024 16:16:12 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Jun 21, 2024 16:22:39 GMT
There is still time for a real cut through but will it happen? Reform could stall and lose share or just stall here on a ceiling; but if they can trickle another couple of points then the numbers start to crunch and we could have a bandwagon? If that is accompanied by some notable Conservative recruits and switchers we have a game in play. That is odds-off but looking to be a possibility. |
|
|
|
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 21, 2024 17:17:56 GMT
Sure, all it takes is those brave enough to put their vote where their mouth is and actually vote Reform...
|
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Jun 21, 2024 18:02:25 GMT
Parallels with 1983 election going on now.
Leading party polling in the low 40's gets a massive majority, as the opposition parties are/were virtually tying, perfectly splitting the opposition vote to the greatest possible benefit of the leading party.
The only thing that's changed is the party labels. The common factor is the vagaries of FPTP!
|
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Jun 21, 2024 18:12:05 GMT
Parallels with 1983 election going on now. Leading party polling in the low 40's gets a massive majority, as the opposition parties are/were virtually tying, perfectly splitting the opposition vote to the greatest possible benefit of the leading party. The only thing that's changed is the party labels. The common factor is the vagaries of FPTP! I think a lot more has changed than that.
It's always tempting to say 'this election will be like 1945/1959/1974 (oct)/1983/2019 etc. etc all over again, but it is really important to recognize the very real differences.
All electoral systems have vagaries. It's entirely possible that there will be a huge swing against the Tories, but that they hold onto a significant number of seats by small margins. On the other hand long term 'safe seats' may go because the local party isn't used to fighting a competitive election (this has of course, happened to Labour previously)
Seats also have very different political cultures despite looking superficially similar.
And sometimes there's just nothing you can do that makes any difference.
|
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Jun 28, 2024 16:27:28 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Jul 3, 2024 14:20:01 GMT
|
|
